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Dipanjan Banchur

Is Old Dominion Freight Line Stock Underperforming the S&P 500?

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. (ODFL), headquartered in Thomasville, North Carolina, operates as a less-than-truckload (LTL), union-free motor carrier providing regional, inter-regional, and national LTL services through a single integrated organization. Valued at $38.25 billion by market cap, the company’s service offerings include expedited transportation. It also offers value-added services, including container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting.

Companies worth $10 billion or more are generally described as “large-cap stocks,” and ODFL perfectly fits that description, signifying its substantial size, stability, and dominance in its industry.

The freight shipping major has fallen 22.7% from its 52-week high of $227.80, which it hit on Apr. 8. Shares of ODFL are down 18.8% over the past three months, underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 5.3% gains over the same time frame.

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Longer term, ODFL has gained 5.2% over the past year, and in 2024, the stock is down 13.1%. By contrast, the SPX is up 14.8% on a YTD basis and 26.5% over the past 52 weeks.

The stock has been trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since late April to confirm the bearish price trend.

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On Apr. 24, ODFL shares closed down more than 11% after the company reported its Q1 results. Its revenue of $1.46 billion fell short of the consensus estimate of $1.47 billion.

ODFL’s overall performance can be attributed to the soft demand trends in the U.S. economy. Due to worries over the overall health of the U.S. economy, shipping customers are trimming their inventories. CEO Marty Freeman said the company still faces “operating challenges,” which could hamper growth.

Rival XPO, Inc. (XPO) has outperformed ODFL. XPO stock has gained 98.5% in the past 52 weeks and is up 19.9% on a YTD basis.

Despite its recent underperformance compared to SPX, analysts are optimistic about ODFL’s prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy” from the 18 analysts covering it, and the mean price target of $197 is a premium of 11.9% to current levels.

On the date of publication, Dipanjan Banchur did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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