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Sohini Mondal

Is NVIDIA Stock Outperforming the S&P 500?

Valued at a market cap of $3.2 trillion, Santa Clara, California-based NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is a global leader in visual computing and the inventor of the GPU, revolutionizing industries from gaming to artificial intelligence. With strong partnerships across cloud service providers and major tech companies, NVIDIA continues to drive innovation in AI, professional visualization, and networking.

Companies valued over $200 billion are generally considered “mega-cap” stocks and NVIDIA fits this criterion perfectly, exceeding the mark. For over 30 years, NVIDIA has revolutionized computing with key innovations like the GPU, CUDA, AI breakthroughs, RTX real-time ray tracing, and the Omniverse platform, powering over 4 million developers and 40,000 companies worldwide.

 

The semiconductor chip specialist pulled back 14.3% from its 52-week high of $153.13Shares of NVDA are down 4.1% over the past three months, underperforming the broader S&P 500 Index's ($SPX) 1.1% decline in the same period.

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Longer term, on a YTD basis, shares of NVDA have dipped 2.2%, lagging behind SPX's 1.3% rise. However, the AI giant has surged nearly 66% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming SPX's 17.5% return.

NVDA has remained bullish, consistently trading above its 200-day moving average since last year, while its position above the 50-day moving average has fluctuated recently.

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Shares of NVDA rose 3.7% on Feb. 26 after the company reported record Q4 revenue of $39.3 billion and profit of $0.89 per share, surpassing analyst expectations, with data center sales nearly doubling to $35.6 billion. Investors reacted positively to Nvidia’s strong AI-driven growth, bolstered by key partnerships with Amazon and Microsoft and its leadership in AI infrastructure. The company’s guidance for Q1 FY26 projected $43 billion in revenue, implying 65% year-over-year growth, reinforcing confidence in sustained demand for its AI chips.

Moreover, the stock’s rival, Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), has seen a 62.7% surge over the past 52 weeks and an 8.2% decline on a YTD basis, lagging behind NVDA's performances in both periods. 

As NVDA has outperformed over the past year, analysts remain bullish about the stock's prospects. The stock has a consensus rating of “Strong Buy” from the 43 analysts covering it. As of writing, NVDA is trading below the mean price target of $177.19

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