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Cambridge, Massachusetts-based Moderna, Inc. (MRNA), a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines for the treatment of infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune, and cardiovascular diseases. The company is valued at $16.1 billion by market cap.
Companies worth $10 billion or more are generally described as “large-cap stocks,” and MRNA perfectly fits that description, with its market cap exceeding this mark, underscoring its size, influence, and dominance within the biotechnology industry. Moderna's ability to leverage its mRNA technology in the respiratory vaccine market gives the company a strategic advantage due to its quick development and potential for combination vaccines.
Despite its notable strength, MRNA slipped 75.5% from its 52-week high of $170.47, achieved on May 24. Over the past three months, MRNA stock dipped 38.7%, considerably underperforming the Dow Jones Industrials Average’s ($DOWI)5.9% gains during the same time frame.
In the longer term, shares of MRNA plummeted 57.9% on a YTD basis and 46.8% over the past 52 weeks, significantly underperforming DOWI’s YTD gains of 16.3% and 18.2% returns over the last year.
To confirm the bearish trend, MRNA has traded below its 50-day moving average since late June. The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average since early August.
Moderna is struggling due to declining COVID-19 vaccine sales and uncertain future revenue growth. Despite diversification efforts, the company's sales have plummeted over the past year. Its reliance on COVID sales hasn't paid off, and investors are cautious due to the high failure rate of cancer treatments, including its promising mRNA-4157 vaccine. Recent concerns over potential FDA reforms and their impact on regulatory stability have further added to the uncertainty surrounding Moderna's future prospects.
On Nov. 7, MRNA shares closed down more than 2% after reporting its Q3 results. Its EPS of $0.03 surpassed Wall Street expectations. The company’s revenue was $1.9 billion, beating Wall Street forecasts of $1.3 billion.
In the competitive arena of vaccines, Pfizer Inc. (PFE) has taken the lead over Moderna, showing resilience with a 11.2% dip on a YTD basis and 4.1% losses over the past 52 weeks.
Wall Street analysts are cautious on MRNA’s prospects. The stock has a consensus “Hold” rating from the 25 analysts covering it, and the mean price target of $78.73 suggests a potential upside of 88.2% from current price levels.
