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Sohini Mondal

Is Dollar Tree Stock Underperforming the Dow?

Chesapeake, Virginia-based Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), with a market cap of around $15 billion, operates in the discount retail sector. The company runs two main segments: Dollar Tree, which offers items at a fixed price of $1.25, and Family Dollar, which provides a broader range of general merchandise at discounted prices.

Companies valued at $10 billion or more are generally considered "large-cap" stocks, and Dollar Tree fits this criterion perfectly. Dollar Tree is renowned for its unique model of offering a wide range of products, including food, household items, and seasonal goods, making it a one-stop shop for budget-conscious consumers.

However, the discount retailer has seen a 53.1% decline from its 52-week high of $151.21. Over the past three months, its shares have fallen 33.2%, trailing behind the broader Dow Jones Industrials Average's ($DOWI) 7.8% gains during the same period.

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Longer term, DLTR is down 50.1% on a YTD basis, significantly underperforming DOWI's 10.4% return. Moreover, shares of Dollar Tree have declined 36.9% over the past 52 weeks, compared to DOWI’s 20.2% rise over the same time frame.

DLTR has shown a bearish trend, consistently trading below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages since mid-March.

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Dollar Tree has underperformed due to high inflation, reduced consumer spending on non-essential items, and ongoing struggles with its Family Dollar segment, which includes store closures and safety-related fines. Moreover, the stock plummeted 22.2% on Sep. 4 after posting weaker-than-expected Q2 results, with adjusted EPS of $0.67 on sales of $7.4 billion. The company also slashed its full-year guidance due to higher costs from store openings, legal liabilities, and the acquisition of 99 Cents Only Stores.

Also, DLTR has underperformed its rival, Dollar General Corporation (DG), which experienced a 36.7% YTD dip and a 25.6% decline over the past 52 weeks.

Despite DLTR's weak price performance, analysts are moderately optimistic about the stock's prospects. Among the 21 analysts covering the stock, there is a consensus rating of “Moderate Buy,” and DLTR is currently trading below the mean price target of $82.59.

On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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