During the 2022 election campaign, Anthony Albanese waited until the 30th day to hold a press conference with the then Victorian premier, fearing Daniel Andrews’ association with Covid lockdowns.
When the two finally appeared together, Andrews didn’t hold back. He launched into an impassioned tirade against Scott Morrison and Josh Frydenberg, revisiting the fraught themes of the pandemic, while Albanese stood beside him, visibly uneasy. After that, Andrews largely stayed off the campaign trail.
But the fears proved unfounded. Victoria swung hard against the Coalition, securing Labor the seats it needed to form government and delivering the best two-party preferred result of all the states at 54.8%. Six months later, Andrews was also re-elected with an increased majority.
Three years on, a similar situation is unfolding with federal Labor increasingly nervous of being linked to Andrews’ successor, Jacinta Allan.
While Albanese campaigned alongside the West Australian premier, Roger Cook, on Monday and the South Australian premier, Peter Malinauskas, on Tuesday, when he was in Melbourne on Wednesday and Thursday, Allan was notably absent.
Asked why, Albanese blamed “this little thing called parliament”. Allan offered the same excuse, though parliament sitting has hardly impeded in the past.
At the same time, the Coalition leader, Peter Dutton, who needs to pick up seats in Victoria to have any hope of forming government, did all he could to link the two leaders.
He accused Albanese of being “joined at the hip” with Allan when it came to the Suburban Rail Loop – a project from which he pledged to pull $2.2bn in federal funding.
Both his state and federal colleagues have been hammering the line: “A vote for Anthony Albanese is a vote for Jacinta Allan.” A recent Liberal flyer branded them “double trouble for Victorians”, highlighting the state’s debt and rising crime rates.
“The same thing happens every single election,” one state Labor MP said.
Another Labor source described the ads as “not new, not unique and not very clever”.
But others within the party think this time, it’s different.
Liability or scapegoat
Since Allan took over as leader, consecutive surveys have shown her personal standing has taken a hit while support for her government has plummeted.
Polling published by the Age this week found Allan’s “likeability” rating had plunged to -32% in February and March while primary support for her government stands at just 24%, a minor improvement on two months earlier.
Some of this may not be entirely of her own making. Like many female leaders, she’s facing a “glass cliff” scenario, stepping into a role after a popular, long-serving male predecessor and inheriting his baggage, including a dire budget situation and rising debt.
But there is no denying Allan has also stumbled from one crisis to another, the latest being a huge spike in crime and instability within the police force. Rather than being known for bold policy, she’s become more associated with backflips and backdowns.
Given this, it is easy to see how federal Labor is worried her poor standing will rub off on them.
The Coalition believes they can pick up as many as nine seats in Victoria, while even the most optimistic Labor sources expect to lose at least three. (The more pessimistic say even traditional Labor strongholds like Bruce and Hawke are now in play.)
If it turns into a wipeout, some state Labor MPs concerned about their own chances in 2026 say there’s a possibility Allan could be rolled.
“It’s just not sustainable,” one said. “We can’t keep getting battered week after week.”
However, some Labor insiders suggest it is unfair to scapegoat Allan for all of the state’s woes.
Since the 2022 election, New South Wales, the Northern Territory, Queensland and South Australia have all changed governments. With the exception of the ACT, Victoria now boasts the longest-serving Labor government.
One Labor source suggested the party’s dominance in Victoria may have simply worn thin.
“The most common refrain I hear is that the government is just tired, there’s too much baggage,” they said. “It’s hard to combat the ‘it’s time factor.’”
Another said it wasn’t “all doom and gloom” in Victoria, pointing to the latest BludgerTrack poll, which aggregates voting intention across multiple surveys, showing Labor at 50.5% two-party preferred in Victoria, just behind NSW at 51% and Queensland where it is 46.3%.
They acknowledged, however, that Victoria’s polling represented a 4.3% swing away from Labor since last election. By contrast, in New South Wales, the federal vote has held up much better, with just a 1.3% swing away from Labor.
Further complicating matters federally is the redistribution, which saw the Labor-held seat of Higgins abolished and about a third of Victorians move into new electorates.
“That means for a lot of voters, they’ll have a new local MP, and incumbency is compromised,” a source said.
Others believed federal Labor MPs were already laying the groundwork to deflect blame and point the finger at the state if they lost. They argued the real issue was that federal Labor had failed to do the necessary work themselves.
One state Labor MP said their federal counterparts had “delivered nothing” for Victoria, with their government “carrying the load” when it came to funding for infrastructure, schools, mental health and family violence.
They said some federal MPs had “taken their seats for granted”, many opting not to live in them or attend local events.
“The Canberra bubble is very real,” they said.
One thing all of Labor could agree on, however, was that the best thing the party had going for it in Victoria was Peter Dutton.
They were convinced Victorians – with their undeniable progressive streak – hadn’t forgot Dutton’s comments about being scared to go out for dinner in Melbourne, his stints as home affairs and health minister or his plans for nuclear energy. They said his hard-man image was also a turn-off in a state that remained deeply wary of his style of politics.
This could explain why the Victorian Liberal leader, Brad Battin, has also been conspicuously absent from Dutton’s press conferences so far this campaign – though it’s received considerably less media attention.
As for Allan, perhaps one Labor MP summed up the situation: “If we win, then it will be in spite of her. If we lose, it’s because of her.”
