The Jacksonville Jaguars’ pathway to an AFC South title is pretty simple: finish the season sweep of the Tennessee Titans with a win in Week 18 and take over the top spot in the division.
After a win Sunday was coupled with a Tennessee loss, the 6-8 Jaguars are now only a game behind the 7-7 Titans. So long as Jacksonville doesn’t drop back to two or three games behind Tennessee in the next couple weeks, the AFC South title will be decided on the last day of the season.
But what if the Jaguars fall short in that season finale? Is there another way into the playoffs? The answer is yes, but it’d be a long shot.
For now, the wild card race in the AFC looks like this:
- Baltimore Ravens: 9-5
- Los Angeles Chargers: 8-6
- Miami Dolphins: 8-6
- New England Patriots: 7-7
- New York Jets: 7-7
- Jacksonville Jaguars: 6-8
If the Jaguars win their last three games, they hop the queue and take a divisional crown. So we’re looking at a scenario where the Jaguars beat the Jets and Houston Texans in the next week, but finish 8-9 after a loss in their finale.
In that scenario, Baltimore can’t be caught, but an 8-9 record could be enough to track down the Chargers or Dolphins if either lose out. And Jacksonville owns a tiebreaker over every team in the mix, thanks to some head-to-head wins and a solid record in AFC matchups.
Even if Los Angeles and/or Miami lose three straight, the Jaguars would also need New England to fumble its chance by losing to the Bengals and Bills, and the Jets to lose a Week 17 game against the Seahawks.
There’s some wiggle room with the Jaguars needing to pass only three of those four teams, but all the scenarios are highly unlikely.
If Jacksonville doesn’t win the AFC South, don’t count on the team finding another way in.
