Power of their full-frontal assault
Even before the stranglehold they have enjoyed over the Six Nations of late, Ireland have stood out from the rest for the degree to which they pound opposing defences.
This extends beyond the international arena. The world record for the highest number of tackles in one match is the 518 shared between Leinster and Connacht in January 2020, while the record for a single team is the 331 Glasgow made against Leinster the year before. Jonny Gray alone made 43 of them. Meanwhile, the top eight team-tackle counts in Six Nations history have all been registered against Ireland.
Similar patterns have emerged this year. Ireland have forced the opposition into 181 tackles per match in the first three rounds. Wales are on 167, but the next three are in the 130s (Italy are on 105). Ireland control 58% of possession on average, by some way the most in the tournament. Conversely, in defence, although England have made fewer tackles, Ireland seem to share the load more evenly. They have only one player – Caelan Doris – in the top 30 tacklers.
It’s not the tackle count, it’s what you do with it
Making another team tackle a lot is not in itself a guarantee of victory. Of those eight matches when the opposition racked up record tackle counts, Ireland lost three (and Glasgow beat Leinster in 2019).
Some players graft, some create and some hurt. Good teams have a blend of all three. It stands to reason, though, that any player who can graft, create and hurt is special indeed – as is a team full of them. Everywhere you look across this Ireland team, there are punishing ball-carriers who are comfortable on the ball and relentless in their work rate.
The contrast between Ireland and Wales was illustrative last weekend. Wales actually made Ireland tackle almost as often, but they did not have the weapons to hurt them. Ireland have carried the ball more than anyone, nearly 800m more than the next best team, Wales. When it comes to metres past the gainline, though, they are proportionally even further ahead (and Wales sink to the bottom by that metric). Ireland have made 30 line-breaks; everyone else has made between 13 and 11.
Opposition teams are a work in progress
It seems ridiculous to describe a team who have taken silver and bronze medals from the last two World Cups as a work in progress, but England certainly are. The most notable aspect of their game so far in this Six Nations has been the rush defence. As Andy Farrell implied after the Wales game, his Leinster players are now coached by the man who developed such a defence so successfully with South Africa, Jacques Nienaber. Rumour has it, though, that South Africa were far more bothered about losing Felix Jones, now England’s defence coach, than Nienaber.
Jones has work to do on that defence. Attack-wise, England seem even worse than before, but their first try against Scotland was beautifully worked and felt quite Irish in its timing and use of dummy runners. George Ford will not want reminding of a couple of his passes at Murrayfield, but he remains the boss. If Ireland are the kings of starving teams of possession, England have kept the opposition in their own half more than anyone (41% of the time).
Surviving first contact with the enemy
But enough of statistics and tactics, which are massively overrated as pointers to the outcome of a match. More important is the spiritual quotient, the simple question of who is likely to play well – or, just as important, badly – relative to expectation. No gameplan or tactic in the world can help you if you’re performing poorly.
Ireland, of course, have margin for error here, because they are a much better team than England. You can get the hosts at 4-1 to win next Saturday, which means the bookies give them a 20% chance of success on their own patch. The handicap is a whopping 12 points. Ireland can afford to have an off-day and escape with the win.
The very existence of those odds, though, will surely have England foaming at the mouth. Take a pinch of the stardust of that opening try against Scotland and the intensity of the World Cup semi-final they were so unlucky to lose against the Springboks, and a home win is absolutely within the realms of imagination. But England do not have any margin for error.
Six Nations’ law of momentum
Don’t let anyone tell you grand slams are hard to come by. In the Six Nations era, one has been achieved more often than not (13 out of 24 tournaments). This is mainly because of the momentum that a winning side develops in so brief a competition, and just as importantly, the waning motivation of all those who have lost it.
If only Scotland had been awarded that try against France, we might have been building to that very rare thing (only one out of 24), a grand slam decider. They responded by depriving England of the chance to build some winning momentum of their own, and the sting of that will motivate Steve Borthwick’s side to do the same to Ireland.
But when the eyes start to water in a ferocious contest, it is the team with something tangible to play for that pulls through more often than not. Twickenham will probably be Ireland’s biggest challenge yet. If they win there, expect them to secure the Six Nations’ first back-to-back grand slams.
