If any British racing fans had convinced themselves last year’s Cheltenham Festival was an aberration, that this year’s meeting might see British horses summoning up at least a little more resistance to their opponents from Ireland, then Saturday’s Imperial Cup result at Sandown was a shock to the system of ice-bucket challenge proportions.
On paper, it was one of the most tightly handicapped fields of the season: 21 runners from Britain against a sole challenger from Ireland – which proceeded to win with such ridiculous ease that another stone on its back would have made little difference. That it was called Suprise Package only added to the sense that Irish racing has started trolling its British counterpart.
Even a decade ago, Ireland’s romp through the 2021 Festival was unthinkable. It was all but unthinkable as they went to the start for the opening race 12 months ago. Paddy Power, never a firm to shy away from a patriotic price or two, chalked up “20 or more” at 9-1 and went no further than that.
The final result, 23-5, was a rugby score – if the match in question was Ireland v Italy. In hindsight, though, it was only the scale of Ireland’s superiority that came as any real surprise. The fact of it was almost a given.
Britain’s jump-racing industry is much bigger and richer than Ireland’s in terms of horse population, total prize money and the number of races during the season. It has also historically fielded the majority of runners at the Cheltenham Festival: it is supposed to be a “home” fixture, after all. But in recent years, Ireland’s progress at National Hunt’s showpiece meeting has been relentless.
The 2022 Cheltenham Festival will open on mainly good going after a warm, drying day at the track yesterday resulted in the ground drying out rapidly to good, good-to-soft in places, having been good-to-soft, soft in places on Sunday. There will be no watering on the Old Course – which stages the first two days of the meeting – as up to 9mm of rain are forecast for the track on Wednesday.
“It’s currently soft, good-to-soft in places on the New Course, which is in use for the last two days,” Jon Pullin, Cheltenham’s clerk of the course, said on Monday night. “We are dry today, with temperatures of around 13 or 14C, and it’s a similar forecast for the opening day, but then on Wednesday there is some rain around, with the lower end of forecasts around 3mm, but some forecasts indicating up to 8 or 9mm.
“It will be spread throughout the day, but if it becomes heavier it will be during the afternoon," Pullin added. "We irrigated the New Course on Friday with 12mm, based on the forecast we were given and the warm temperatures that were expected. We’ll see where we are with forecasts for Wednesday and assess how much rain we actually get before making any decision on further watering of the New Course.”
As recently as 2013 Irish trainers saddled more Festival winners than the British for the first time. After the late 80s, Festivals when the visitors were relieved to get a single winner on the board, it was quite the turnaround. The next two meetings went Britain’s way – 15-12 and 14-13 – but the home team has not won the so-called Prestbury Cup outright since. The aggregate score over the past six Festivals is 105 to 62 in Ireland’s favour.
All’s fair in love and bookie-bashing and so the extent to which any of this matters to the average punter is debatable. Racing is not a team sport and at ground level the rivalry is as friendly and sporting as they get. Many of the great Festival favourites and winning gambles in recent years have been trained in Ireland. Rachael Blackmore’s historic achievement in becoming the first woman to win the top-jockey prize last season was the icing on the cake. A little flag-waving on the way back to the winner’s enclosure is all part of the Festival fun.
For a British trainer hoping to recruit new owners, though, it is more than merely irritating or embarrassing. The dream of having a runner, never mind a winner, at Cheltenham is, like it or not, what tempts many owners into the game in the first place. Less prestigious prizes during the dark winter months do not have the same appeal. Why spend six figures on a jumping prospect, and thousands more on training fees in a local stable, if it is just going to get rolled over by the Irish again in March? The idea of the Festival as British jump racing’s showpiece event also becomes a harder sell if 95% of the prize money is marked for export every year.
This may also be the week when Ireland fields a majority of runners in the Grade One events for the first time. The visitors have 22 of the 42 runners in Grade Ones on Tuesday and last year fielded 47% overall, up from 26% in 2013. One of the few records that survived 2021 – that Ireland has never swept a single day’s card at the Festival – must also be in serious danger.
The full strength of the green tide should be apparent by the middle of Wednesday afternoon. Two of the three Grade One favourites from British yards – Constitution Hill in the Supreme Novice Hurdle and Edwardstone in the Arkle – run in the first two races while the mighty, unbeaten Shishkin goes up against Energumene in the Queen Mother Champion Chase the following day, in what promises to be the highlight of the week.
Eleven of 14 favourites on the final two days, though, are from Ireland, including six of seven on Friday’s Gold Cup card, when A Plus Tard is likely to head the market to give Blackmore a first win in the Festival’s feature race. Some on the British side suggest it is all just a cycle and that the wheel will eventually turn. They may be right, but for now at least, it feels more like a bandwagon and one that will not stop rolling for a long while yet.
