Ireland is going to the polls on 26 October for a presidential election which will see five challengers take on the popular incumbent Michael D Higgins.
The campaign will see a sitting president, an MEP, a senator and three judges from the popular TV show Dragon’s Den all battling it out to become the head of state to a country of 4.7 million people for the next seven years.
Current projections show Higgins on course for an easy landslide re-election, with polls suggesting he could take around two thirds of first preference votes.
When is the Irish presidential election?
The election will be held on Friday 26 October, with voting open from 7am to 10pm. Counting will begin on the morning of Saturday 27 October, with a winner declared at some point that afternoon.
A referendum on removing the offence of blasphemy from the Irish constitution will be held on the same day.
The inauguration of the winner will be held in Dublin Castle at noon on Sunday 11 November.
What is the voting system?
Irish citizens over the age of 35 may be nominated for the presidential election by:
Themselves, if they are the incumbent president and have served only one term
20 members of the Irish parliament (this is typically how political parties nominate their candidate)
Four city or county councils of Ireland (this is often the route for independent candidates)
All nominees make the ballot paper and are put to the Irish electorate. The president is elected on proportional representation by the single transferable vote.
Who are the candidates?
Michael D Higgins(Incumbent, supported by Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Labour)
Michael D Higgins is a veteran Irish politician, originally a member of the Labour party, who is also well known as a poet. He has served as Irish president since 2011.
He has been praised for his ability to unite the nation, particularly in a decade of difficult historical centenaries, and his unique brand of statesmanship has seen great affection bestowed upon him, even by the younger generations.
While most of his opponents have had words of praise for his conduct across the past seven years, he’s likely to face questioning about the cost of the presidency, and the number of engagements he has undertaken, not to mention his age. At 77, he will be 84 by the time his next term would end.
Ultimately though, the campaigns of other candidates will probably be respectful of the work Mr Higgins has done, standing instead on their respective visions for giving the presidency a new face.
Liadh Ní Riada(Sinn Féin)
Liadh Ní Riada is a Sinn Féin politician who has been a Member of the European Parliament since 2014.
Sinn Féin are the only party officially contesting this election, as all others have declined to stand a candidate as a show of support for President Higgins.
Ms Ní Riada has a background in television, having worked as a producer on the country’s Irish station TG4, and is a keen advocate of the Gaelic language.
Ms Ní Riada has been chosen by Sinn Féin as a fresh face who can represent their key causes without carrying any Troubles-era baggage. It is believed she will strike a chord with a new generation who have become politicised by the country’s recent referendums, a sense of social injustice, and a growing desire for Irish unity.
She will likely face questioning on how much influence Sinn Féin’s machinery would have on her, in a role which is supposed to be above politics. She has also come under scrutiny over her scepticism around childhood vaccinations.
Sean Gallagher(Independent)
Sean Gallagher is a businessman and a former Dragon’s Den star who also ran in the 2011 presidential election. He secured his nomination with the support of councils.
At one point, he had been the favourite to win, until he was questioned days before the election in a live TV debate about money he had collected for a Fianna Fáil fundraiser. This small anecdote was deemed to be emblematic of a larger culture of cronyism associated with the party at that time, and it crashed Gallagher’s presidential dreams. He came second, while Higgins was elected.
Many have been surprised at his resurgence in 2018, as he has been absent from Irish politics across the last seven years. It is likely this will be something he’ll face questions on when it comes to his true motivation for running, and whether he bears any grudges over how the last election turned out.
Ironically, it is the unresolved questions about money and his role within Fianna Fáil which brought down his campaign in 2011 which are most likely to haunt him again in this year’s election.
Joan Freeman(Independent)
Joan Freeman is a psychologist who has also been an independent senator since 2016, and received her nomination through the support of councils.
She is the founder of suicide intervention charity Pieta House, and launched the popular Darkness Into Light walk which raises funds for those affected by suicide.
Ms Freeman wants to use her platform to draw attention to mental health issues and generate more national discussion around the problem. She is likely to face questioning around representing a modern Ireland, after she explained that she voted against repealing the eighth amendment in May.
Gavin Duffy(Independent)
Gavin Duffy is a businessman and another former Dragon’s Den star who has received his nomination with council support.
He has worked as an advisor to both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil in the past, but this is his first venture into the world of politics.
He has called for an emphasis on new physical and digital infrastructure in Ireland if elected, but animal rights activists have criticised his role as a chairman of the Hunting Association of Ireland.
Peter Casey(Independent)
Peter Casey is a businessman and yet another former Dragon’s Den star who has received his nomination with council support.
He has flirted with political office before, but has never yet run. Originally from Derry in Northern Ireland, and based in the US for many years, he is a supporter of voting rights for Irish emigrants.
He has advocated for Ireland to end its policy of neutrality and to boost defence spending, and has also suggested Ireland should attempt to get a better deal from the EU, or leave the organisation.
What are the issues in this election?
As head of state, the role of president in Ireland is largely ceremonial, with little political power. But as the country’s first citizen, the president is often looked upon to capture and reflect the national mood, and as a diplomat, represents the country and the Irish diaspora abroad.
After recent referendums on same sex marriage and abortion reform, it is likely that this election campaign will see broader discussions around the general direction in which Ireland is travelling.
The impact of Brexit on the island will undoubtedly come up in debate, and the growing prospect of Irish reunification, which some are calling for a referendum on within the tenure of the next president.
Reformation of the role of president will also come up, with issues around presidential finances and duties already being discussed. Some candidates have discussed reducing a presidential term from seven years to five. Candidates will probably discuss extending voting rights for presidential elections to Irish citizens abroad. It is expected that a referendum on this issue will be held on 2019.
Who is most likely to win?
It is highly likely Michael D Higgins will be returned for a second term. His popularity in Ireland has been confirmed by a number of opinion polls across 2018, many of which showed that people still valued having an election, even though they wanted him to remain as president.
A poll published by the Sunday Business Post on 16 September showed Higgins on 67 per cent, with Sean Gallagher on 15 per cent, Liadh Ni Riada on 7 per cent, Gavin Duffy on 6 per cent, Joan Freeman on 3 per cent and Peter Casey on 1 per cent.
A poll from Red C/Paddy Power published on 12 October showed Higgins on 70 per cent, with Sean Gallagher on 14 per cent, Joan Freeman on 6 per cent, Liadh Ni Riada on 5 per cent, Gavin Duffy on 4 per cent and Peter Casey on 1 per cent.
The latest poll from Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI - published on 17 October after the first radio debate of the campaign - found Higgins on 66 per cent, Sean Gallagher on 12 per cent, Liadh Ni Riada on 11 per cent, Joan Freeman on 5 per cent, Gavin Duffy on 4 per cent and Peter Casey on 2 per cent.
