Ireland is set to enjoy more tropical warmth over the coming days after an usually mild Valentine’s Day.
Met Eireann confirmed the warmest day of the year so far was recorded in Dublin’s Phoenix Park on Tuesday as temperatures hit 15.9C.
Double digit temperatures are forecast for the remainder of the week, with some stormy weather possible Thursday and Friday.
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Looking further ahead, fears are growing about the risk of a brutal Arctic freeze, similar to the ‘Beast from the East’ that brought Ireland to a standstill five years ago.
Weather models show it is now ‘likely’ that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) will take place.
This can lead to cold, dry weather coming into northern Europe and across Ireland.
The end of February into the start of March has been pinpointed by forecasters as the exact date Ireland would be impacted by the weather phenomenon - but have cautioned that its exact impacts are very uncertain this far out.
In 2018, it was the occurrence of an SSW event that drove the Arctic deluge that left Ireland covered in heavy snow - however the following year, there was another SSW event that had little impact on Ireland’s weather.
Independent Irish forecaster Alan O’Reilly is monitoring the possibility of an SSW event and how it may affect Ireland.
Sharing weather models on his popular Carlow Weather social media accounts, he wrote: “Latest weather models showing risk of SSW increasing but remember any impacts on our weather are uncertain and if it does impact our weather it would likely be towards the end of this month or early into March.”
In an update, he continued: “Models still showing SSW event likely but I can’t stress this enough, it does not mean we will see a beast from the East. It can have very little impact on our weather, it’s wait and see. Models do show increased chance of blocked and possibly cooler weather around start of March.
“Latest ECMWF update shows full agreement on the model for reversal of winds and SSW. So an SSW will happen we know that now but what we don’t know is the impact on our weather. That is wait and see.”
It comes as the UK’s Met Office issued a blog post and a weather alert.
It reads: “The latest forecasts are showing that a major SSW is now likely to take place. The recent minor SSW weakened the SPV and it’s now likely to collapse and reverse in the middle of February.
“A major SSW often makes the jet stream meander more, which can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, including the UK [and Ireland]. This blocking high pressure can lead to cold, dry weather in the north of Europe, including the UK [and Ireland], with mild, wet and windy conditions more likely for southern areas of the continent. However, this is not always the case and impacts on UK weather can also be benign when an SSW occurs.”
Its head of long-range forecasting Adam Scaife also pinpointed late February and March as the exact date Ireland would see any impacts from a SSW.
He said: “There is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring. Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK [and Ireland] weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”
Meanwhile, Met Eireann’s current extended range forecast for February suggests the most likely scenario is for broadly changeable weather with rain and gusts at times.
The meteorological service issues long-range forecasts that it says “can at times provide an insight into weather patterns for the month ahead” but advises they “should not be used for specific planning purposes” as they “have generally low skill” because “forecasts beyond one week become increasingly uncertain due to the chaotic nature of the atmosphere”.
Its forecast for February 17 to February 23 reads: "For week 1, there is decent confidence that high pressure to the west will dominate our weather, leading to mostly settled conditions for the week. There is a signal for slightly warmer than average conditions for the middle of February to occur, along with a signal for lower than average precipitation amounts, particularly over the south and southwest, with less confidence of lower than average amounts in the north."
For the week of February 24 to March 2 it continues: "By week 2, there is still for high pressure to remain the dominant influence over our weather. There is however a weaker signal than week 1 for higher than average temperatures to occur for late February and early March. Precipitation amounts will also likely be lower than the seasonal norm for the week, again with the strongest signal for the south of the country."
Looking ahead to the week of March 3 to March 9, it says: "In week 3, uncertainty grows in the forecast, though a slight signal for high pressure remains nearby the country, to the northwest. This leads to a weak signal for slightly higher than average temperatures. Precipitation amounts are again forecast to be below average for early March, though confidence is lower at this stage."
For the week of March 10 to March 16, Met Eireann’s monthly forecast concludes: "Looking ahead to week 4, uncertainty again grows in the forecast, and there is little in the way of a signal for high or low pressure to affect the country. This leads to little to no signal for temperatures to be above or below the seasonal average for mid-March. There is however some signal for precipitation amounts to remain below average, though confidence in the trend is low at this stage."
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