Ireland is set for a bitter Arctic weather U-turn with Met Eireann forecasting a 15C temperature swing within days.
Thermometers will reach a mild 14C over the coming days before a change to colder weather from Tuesday.
The national forecaster has warned ‘wintry showers’, freezing temperatures, hail and fog is on the way, leading to frost and ice at times next week.
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Giving its forecast for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, the meteorological service has predicted mostly dull and damp weather, with sunny patches at times, and mild temperatures for this time of the year.
It said: “This morning will be largely dry under mostly cloudy skies, although there will be some spots of drizzle. The best of any sunny spells today will be in Munster or Leinster. More widespread patchy rain or drizzle will develop in Atlantic counties later this afternoon. West to southwest winds will increase moderate to fresh, becoming windy later in the northwest. Mild with highest temperatures of 10C to 14C.
“Monday will be a dull or damp day for the west and northwest with further outbreaks of rain or drizzle. Drier elsewhere with more isolated drizzle patches. Overall cloudy with limited sunny spells. Breezy at times with moderate, occasionally fresh, west to southwest winds. Mild with highest temperatures of 11C to 14C.
“Some brief sunny spells on Tuesday but generally cloudy again with dry spells and occasional drizzle. More persistent rain however will develop in the west in the afternoon, and track eastwards over the country through the evening and early night. Highest temperatures of 10C to 13C with moderate south to southwest winds”
Met Eireann says the weather will take an Arctic turn from Tuesday night.
“Wet early on Tuesday night but rain will clear into the Irish Sea with clear spells and scattered showers following overnight. Temperatures will fall close to freezing after rain clears with potential for some frost or ice. Winds will turn westerly too.
“A cold day Wednesday with sunshine and widespread blustery showers, some heavy possibly with hail. Temperatures of 5C to 8C but feeling colder in a brisk northwest wind. Largely clear with light winds on Wednesday night with a few wintry showers near western and northern coasts. It will be cold and frosty with lowest temperatures of -1C to 3C
“Mostly dry Thursday with sunshine to start, turning cloudier in the afternoon. There will be a few showers, mainly in Atlantic areas. Afternoon temperatures of 6C to 9C with light northwesterly winds. Little change overnight, largely dry with a mix of cloud and clear spells. Frost is likely as temperatures fall near freezing in many parts.
“Currently Friday is looking to bring a mix of cloud and sunny spells, with a few showers in mostly light winds. Cold at night with possible frost.”
Despite the cold weather change, one Irish weather expert has said there is “no sign of any beasts” at the moment.
It comes as fears are growing that a ‘major’ weather event could trigger an extreme bout of snow similar to the ‘Beast from the East’ that brought the country to a standstill five years ago.
Weather models show that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is now ‘likely’ to take place. This can lead to cold, dry weather coming into the north of Europe and across Ireland.
Forecasters have pinpointed the end of February into the start of March as the date Ireland would be impacted by the weather phenomenon - but have cautioned that its exact impacts are still uncertain this far out.
In 2018, it was the occurrence of an SSW event that drove the Arctic deluge that left Ireland covered in deep snow - while the following year, there was another SSW event that had little impact on Ireland’s weather.
Independent Irish forecaster Alan O’Reilly is monitoring the possibility of an SSW event and how it may affect Ireland.
In an update on Saturday, he said: “Staying mild [Sunday] and also to start the coming week but by Wednesday much cooler air will move in over Ireland and this animation of upper air temperature forecast shows. Cooler but no sign of any beasts.”
Earlier this month, the UK’s Met Office published a blog post and issued a weather alert. They said: “The latest forecasts are showing that a major SSW is now likely to take place. The recent minor SSW weakened the SPV and it’s now likely to collapse and reverse in the middle of February.
“A major SSW often makes the jet stream meander more, which can lead to a large area of blocking high pressure over northern Europe, including the UK [and Ireland]. This blocking high pressure can lead to cold, dry weather in the north of Europe, including the UK [and Ireland], with mild, wet and windy conditions more likely for southern areas of the continent. However, this is not always the case and impacts on UK weather can also be benign when an SSW occurs.”
Prof Adam Scaife, Head of Long-Range Forecasting, also pinpointed late February and March as the exact date Ireland would see any impacts from a SSW. He said: “There is now over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring. Although the impact will become clearer nearer the time, any effect on UK [and Ireland] weather is most likely to occur in late February and March.”
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