Europe’s broiling housing crisis is making almost a quarter of its citizens consider emigrating in search of a more affordable life, and it doesn’t get much worse than in Ireland, a massive survey of renters and homeowners has found.
A survey of 20,000 Europeans by Opinium for real estate group RE/MAX found that 33% of Irish people are considering moving to another country amid falling levels of affordability. Across Europe, that is bettered only by Malta.
“There’s a huge affordability crisis at a level we’ve never seen before,” Michael Polzler, CEO of RE/MAX Europe, told Fortune.
A fifth of respondents to RE/MAX’s survey said they were either struggling or really struggling to afford their housing costs, while another 37% said they were only coping with affordability. The proportion of people struggling to afford their accommodation in Ireland was among the highest in Europe.
Ireland’s housing crisis
The specter of emigration has lingered in Ireland’s history, defined by a devastating famine between 1845 and 1852 that caused an estimated 2.1 million people to flee the country. However, Ireland has faced more recent issues with emigration, this time linked to financial pressures.
Following the collapse of the “Celtic Tiger” amid the Global Financial Crisis, there was a resurgence of departures from the country, with 386,100 people emigrating between 2009 and 2013.
The latest survey data from RE/MAX would suggest that despite strong economic growth and a multibillion-dollar surplus, a rampant decline in affordability could spur the next great exodus of Irish residents.
“I think when you see a very stressed situation, like in Ireland, if they have an opportunity to go elsewhere, they would because that’s a particularly stressed situation,” said Polzler.
Ireland rejuvenated its economy after the financial crisis by luring U.S. tech giants like Meta, Google, and Apple to set up European headquarters in the country with competitive corporation taxes.
That push for foreign investment undoubtedly brought money and high-paying jobs to Irish shores while providing a boost to its GDP.
“But you can’t do that without housing,” Polzler said.
Indeed, Ireland is severely lacking in housing stock to accommodate its swelling population. Ireland’s central bank says 52,000 homes need to be built in the country every year if supply is to keep up with demand.
In the meantime, residents are struggling as the average rent in Dublin hits €1,829 ($1,900) per month.
Homelessness in Ireland has been rising since mid-2021 and hit a fresh record high of nearly 14,500 people in January.
RE/MAX’s Polzler said the common issue across Europe was governments’ failure to build more housing.
“Governments have been very slow in permitting for new construction,” says Polzler. “Even if a builder wants to build, they have to pay a fortune to get permission to do it.”
Tightening the belt
RE/MAX’s survey showed a large majority of European homeowners were tightening their belts to afford rising mortgage costs.
Interest rates in the eurozone rose to a near peak of 4.5% in 2023 as inflation moved into the double digits. This increased mortgages for homeowners, which often trickled down into rent prices.
Four out of 10 respondents said they had cut back on going out or spending money on holidays, perhaps explaining a reduction in flight demand this year.
Speaking in May, Michael O’Leary, the CEO of Irish airline Ryanair, said he was getting a “recessionary feel” from European passengers in the buildup to the usually busy summer travel season.
Meanwhile, more than a quarter of respondents said they had canceled subscriptions to services like Netflix and Spotify, as well as magazine subscriptions.
“Anything that’s not absolutely mandatory is getting cut because there’s no other way,” says Polzler.
Editor's note: A version of this article was first published on Fortune.com on Oct. 24, 2024.
