Ireland’s voters go to the polls on Friday 29 November, three weeks after the prime minister, Simon Harris, ended months of speculation by dissolving the coalition government before the end of its five-year term in March next year.
Harris’s centre-right Fine Gael is seeking an unprecedented fourth successive term in office – a prospect that looks possible despite a significant recent dip in the polls and a slight recovery in support for its opposition rival, Sinn Féin.
Who are the main players and how are they polling?
One of Ireland’s two historic centre-right parties, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, has led every Irish government for the past century. At the last election, in 2020, the two longstanding rivals went into coalition together for the first time, joined by the smaller Green party.
The two core partners agreed to rotate the post of prime minister, or taoiseach, midway through their term. In March, Fine Gael’s leader, Leo Varadkar, resigned. Harris, known as the “TikTok taoiseach” for his media skills, took over, re-energising the party and overseeing a surge in the polls.
Meanwhile, the popularity of the leading opposition party – the leftwing, republican Sinn Féin, which in 2020 won the popular vote and finished second in terms of seats behind Fianna Fáil – has plunged over unclear immigration policies and a string of scandals.
Two years ago Sinn Féin, led by Mary Lou McDonald, was on 36% in the polls in Ireland and, installed as the largest party in Northern Ireland’s assembly, had high hopes of forming its first government in Dublin, paving the way for a possible referendum on Irish reunification.
Polls in recent days suggest support for Fine Gael has fallen from 25% to about 20%, reflecting a series of missteps on the campaign trail, with Fianna Fáil, led by the foreign minister, Micheál Martin, on 21% and Sinn Féin recovering slightly to about 20%.
None of the remaining smaller parties are forecast to exceed 5% and independents and others should collect about 21% of the vote.
What’s the system and how does it work?
Pay attention, it’s complicated.
After changes recommended by the electoral commission, Ireland’s new Dáil, or lower house of parliament, will have 174 members, known as Teachta Dála or TDs, compared with 160 last time, representing 43 constituencies (up by four).
Constituencies return three, four or five TDs. Nearly 700 candidates, including more than 170 independents, are standing – but none of the 20 parties in the race is fielding enough to win a majority on its own, meaning another coalition government is certain.
Ireland uses a proportional representation electoral system with single transferable vote, meaning voters rank their preferred candidates – as many as they like – in order, marking their first choice with a 1, their second choice with a 2 and so on.
The count then takes place over several rounds, with candidates needing to reach a particular vote share depending on their constituency to be elected. If a voter’s number one pick has already reached that quota or is knocked out, their vote goes to their next choice.
With 20 or more candidates in some constituencies, the counting – as it did in the previous 2020 election – could well take several days. Only then can possibly months-long negotiations begin on forming a new government and the Dàil elect the new taoiseach.
What are the main issues and what’s the likely outcome?
The cost of living remains a key concern for voters and, although falling interest rates and a recent €10.5bn giveaway budget may have cushioned the pain, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are well aware that higher prices spell danger for incumbent parties.
Healthcare funding is another big issue, as well as Ireland’s continuing housing crisis, with young people in particular struggling with sky-high rents and 61% of Irish respondents (against 10% EU-wide) last year citing housing as one of the country’s top two problems.
Immigration and asylum is another hot-button topic, with a record number of arrivals this year and growing polarisation over the issue being increasingly fuelled by far-right actors leading to, at times, violent protests. Polls show almost two-thirds want tougher controls.
Also being raised on the doorstep is a less vexed question: what to do with the €14bn of Apple’s tax money coming Ireland’s way thanks to a ruling by the highest EU court. Some urge spending on housing and infrastructure, others on education and poverty alleviation.
Regardless of the recent decline in Fine Gael’s fortunes, Sinn Féin would still need to finish a long way ahead of both Fianna Fáil and Harris’s party to cut off their path to re-election, since both have pledged to govern together again without it.
When the results do eventually finally become clear after polls close at 10pm on Friday, experts say Ireland’s two main centre-right parties should be in a position to form a new coalition with the Greens, another small centre-left party or a group of independents.
