‘Beast from the East’ speculation has been rife in recent weeks, with fears a ‘major’ weather event could trigger an extreme bout of snow in Ireland this month.
There has been increased interest in the much-anticipated sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, which is now underway.
The phenomenon, which is common in winter months, can lead to cold, dry weather coming into the north of Europe and across Ireland - but exactly how or when it will impact Ireland’s weather is currently unclear.
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Five years ago, it was the occurrence of an SSW event that drove the Arctic deluge that left Ireland covered in deep snow - while the following year, there was another SSW event that had little impact on our weather.
According to the latest weather models, a bitter cold snap is on the way with Met Eireann pinpointing the two-week period of March 10 to March 23 as the most likely to see “impactful” conditions.
It says that “weather warnings are possible” during these dates but, as of yet, it has not forecast any snow for March.
Issuing its monthly forecast on Tuesday, it said: “A Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is on-going, which adds a high degree of uncertainty to the overall forecast.”
For this week - March 3 to March 9 - it continued: “In Week 1, high pressure will be dominant to the north of Ireland with a mainly easterly airflow across the country. Temperatures will be average for the time of year. There will be below normal rainfall in all areas, with the driest weather over the western half of the country. No warnings or hazardous weather are expected.”
It has forecast much more unsettled conditions for the week of March 10 to March 16, saying: “In Week 2 there will a change to much more unsettled conditions. Low pressure will dominate the weather with the airflow likely to be westerly or southwesterly. Conditions will be unstable near Ireland. Weather warnings or impactful weather are possible in this set up. Rainfall amounts will be above normal in all areas, with highest amounts in the west and southwest. Temperatures will trend above average by up to a degree.”
Looking ahead to the week of March 17 to March 23, it said more “impactful weather is possible”.
It said: “There remains a signal for low pressure to be the main influence on Ireland’s weather in Week 3, although the signal is weaker than that of Week 4. Weather conditions will likely be unsettled or changeable throughout this week, with above normal rainfall for most areas. Warnings or impactful weather are possible in this set up. Temperatures on average this week will likely be near the climatological average.”
For the final week of the month - March 23 to March 30 - it concluded: “In Week 4, there are signs that high pressure will build again to the north of Ireland, allowing a more settled, easterly airflow to develop. This would bring drier conditions, with a signal for below normal precipitation across most of the country. The south or east may continue to have average rainfall in this set up. Average temperatures for the week will likely be normal for late March.”
Meanwhile, Irish weather expert Alan O’Reilly has ruled out a ‘Beast from the East’ repeat in the coming days.
In an update on his popular Carlow Weather social media accounts on Wednesday morning, he said: “The latest weather models continue to show a cold snap with cold air plunging down from the North next week but details still a little uncertain. This isn’t a beast from the East it is a cold Northerly blast that we can often see in Winter and it’s just a little this year.”
He went on to advise: “Take any snow forecasts with a large pinch for salt, two different models here but both show very little if anything for Ireland but the ECMWF does show a risk for Britain early next week.”
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