Seven Iranian officials, including two elite military commanders, were killed in an airstrike on an Iranian embassy complex in Damascus on Monday, with suspicions pointing towards Israel as the perpetrator. This attack is being considered the most significant of its kind on Iranian targets since the assassination of Qassem Soleimani in Baghdad in 2020 by then-US President Donald Trump.
Despite Iran's reluctance to engage in war with Israel and the United States, experts suggest that Iran may feel compelled to respond to this attack. Israel has a history of targeting Iranian and Iranian-allied interests in Syria as part of its strategy to prevent emerging threats to its security, known as the 'campaign between wars.'
Following an attack by Iran-backed Hamas on Israel on October 7, which resulted in casualties and kidnappings, Israel intensified its attacks on Iranian interests in Syria. However, Monday's airstrike marked a significant escalation as it targeted an embassy compound and resulted in the death of a high-ranking commander in Iran's elite Revolutionary Guards.
Israel has not officially claimed responsibility for the attack but has stated that the target was a 'military building of Quds forces,' a unit of the IRGC responsible for foreign operations. The Israel Defense Forces spokesperson emphasized that the target was not a consulate or embassy.
While the possibility of direct Iranian retaliation against Israel exists, experts believe it is unlikely due to the potential consequences, including a reciprocal attack on Iranian soil and the risk of escalating into a regional conflict involving the United States.
