The end of official mourning for Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi has unleashed a battle for succession in which as many as 20 credible names have been proposed.
All candidates have to be cleared by the 12-strong elite body known as the Guardian Council, and the regime is torn between ensuring continuity on the one hand and on the other, allowing an open competition that stimulates turnout and gives the victor legitimacy.
The election on 28 June, triggered by Raisi’s death in a helicopter accident last Sunday, has the potential to expose political divisions within the regime, something that the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will seek to avoid in the search for predictability and stability. Although the elections are about personalities, backroom deals and relationship to the supreme leader, ideology plays a role.
Saeed Jalili, twice a candidate for the presidency although he withdrew in favour of Raisi four years ago, announced on Sunday that he would stand. A hardliner, he has spent most of his career in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and was Iran’s main nuclear negotiator between 2007 and 2013.
This weekend, former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared outside his house surrounded by supporters saying he was considering his options, but his populist unpredictability means he is unlikely to be cleared to stand.
Alireza Zakani, the mayor of Tehran and similar in outlook to Jalili, said he has made no decision, but sources said he was preparing a campaign team.
The traditional conservative candidates are seen as either Parviz Fattah, the former head of the Mostazafan Foundation, a massive business conglomerate, or Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the parliament speaker between 2020 and 2024.
Since reformists are largely marginalised from parliament, the divisions are more apparent between the traditionalists and the Paydari Front, the anti-western Shia supremacists who oppose any kind of compromise – including on the nuclear deal.
Registration for the presidency lasts for four days, starting this Thursday. On the basis of precedent, as many as 10 candidates can be permitted to join the first round, although only four actually stood in 2021.
Doubt still persists as to whether Ali Larijani, a speaker of the parliament for 12 years and experienced centrist, will seek to stand, or be permitted to do so. He denied reports that he was entering the race, saying any decision would be conveyed through his official channels. Permission to let him run this time would be a sign that the regime recognises the need for the president to have a genuine mandate. He has the support of the previous president, Hassan Rouhani.
But some Iranian media are predicting that if the race becomes unpredictable, the stolid vice-president and current interim president, Muhammad Mokhber, may be asked to stand and take the job for five years. His business dealings, including handling much of the supreme leader’s own affairs, make him a trusted figure even though the shadow of corruption and his introduction of ineffective Covid vaccines will hardly endear him to the average Iranian.
Parviz Fattah, the head of the Execution of Imam Khomeini’s Order (EIKO), a huge economic conglomerate under Khamenei’s control, is also tipped to run.
In a sign of the mood inside parliament, Mousa Ghazanfarabadi, sanctioned by the EU and a strong advocate of stricter enforcement of the hijab, was elected as the interim leader of the largest faction in parliament. As head of Tehran’s revolutionary court, he played a role in the jailing of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, the British-Iranian dual national.
Three European powers are deciding whether to table a motion at a meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors, starting on 3 June, over Iran’s failure to accept IAEA requests to improve access to Iran’s nuclear sites.
The IAEA director-general, Rafael Grossi, is trying to negotiate improved access, but progress has been slowed by Raisi’s death. In a sign of the importance of the issue, Ali Shamkhani, the political adviser to the supreme leader and the former secretary of the supreme national security council, has been appointed to head the nuclear negotiations.
• This article was amended on 27 May 2024. The date of the presidential election is 28 June, not 21 July as stated in an earlier version.
