In July, the concern was premature. In August, urgency was misplaced. Even earlier this month, patience remained prudent.
But now, a month before NBA teams play games for real, it is not hyperbole to say the clock is ticking on Tyler Herro and the Miami Heat when it comes to a potential rookie-scale extension for the 2019 first-round pick.
The deadline is Oct. 17.
The impact transcends salary.
And, to a degree, the playing field has changed since the extension window opened July 1.
Foremost, the least impactful element of the decision process from the Heat perspective is the degree to which Herro merits the extension, which assuredly, based on the rest of the NBA market this offseason, would exceed an average of $25 million per season, an extension that would begin in 2023-24.
With Herro the reigning NBA Sixth Man of the Year, such is the market price. He will get at least that money, be it in the coming month or next summer when he otherwise would stand as a restricted free agent.
Instead, the primary component weighing on the decision from the perspective of the Heat front office has to be this: Is there a possibility, or even more to the point, the probability, of a franchise-altering trade between now and next summer?
Because once Herro is extended, he ostensibly is removed from the trade market until the 2023 offseason, due to what would be the “poison pill” element of that extension.
While arcane (and we hate doing math here), the “poison pill” provision does not allow a team to sign a player for a huge raise and then immediately turn around and trade him at the higher salary. Instead, an extended Herro would go out at the average of his extension plus his already locked-in $5.7 million 2022-23 salary, but could be replaced only at his current salary. And in trades involving teams operating above the salary cap (which, at the moment, is just about every NBA team), that math becomes practically impossible.
So it’s not about whether Herro can claim a starting position. It’s not about whether he can show in camp upgraded defense from what was offered last postseason. And it’s not about staying healthy over the next month, after being lost for crucial stages last postseason.
From the Herro side, being forced to wait to facilitate the team’s greater good might seem a bit fishy, considering the sacrifices he already has made by remaining in a reserve role. But Pat Riley, Andy Elisburg and the Heat front office need bait in order to cast the widest possible trade net. That makes a non-extended Herro chum.
Not only does deferring a decision allow the Heat to play the market until the Feb. 9 NBA trading deadline, but it would allow an acquiring team to set the terms of Herro’s next contract, as they acquire right-of-first-refusal for 2023 restricted free agency.
At the moment, the NBA market has grown practically silent since the Kevin Durant (staying) and Donovan Mitchell (traded) situations were settled.
But that doesn’t mean that the Indiana Pacers don’t continue the rebuild at some point and move off of Myles Turner, or that John Collins doesn’t come to an even greater realization that the Atlanta Hawks offense is becoming even more backcourt driven behind Trae Young and Dejounte Murray. And Damian Lillard and Bradley Beal can say all the right things, but what happens when the losing ensues?
On the other hand, with the NBA recently announcing a significant jump in next summer’s salary cap, it will mean teams will be flush with cap cash come July. That could leave the Heat negotiating against more than themselves should Herro be allowed to enter restricted free agency. Phoenix Suns restricted free agent Deandre Ayton got an offer sheet in July from the Pacers, so Herro assuredly would find one of his own next summer.
Since Herro’s selection out of Kentucky at No. 14 in 2019, the thought was that he could serve as a part of a Heat bridge to the future alongside fellow former Wildcat Bam Adebayo, who swiftly received his Heat five-year, $163 million rookie-scale extension during the compressed 2020 offseason. Herro turns 23 in January; Adebayo turned 25 in July.
But with Jimmy Butler having turned 33 this past week, and with Kyle Lowry 36, this also is a team living in the moment. Extend Herro now, and the moment possibly would be gone to augment that Butler-Lowry base.
The one element that tends to be overstated is the emotional aspect of being forced to wait. That was the storyline throughout last season with Ayton and the Suns. Now Ayton said the concern is a nonstarter. The money will come for Herro, with the only question of when. (Although the potential injury element is not as easily put aside.)
So with each day, now that the clock is ticking, that a Herro extension is tabled, consider instead the trade possibilities.
Because the Heat certainly are weighing just that.
