When it comes to Thursday’s NBA trading deadline, the play for the Miami Heat might be the same as the play a year ago, namely versatile depth at power forward.
Last year, that meant a pair of deals, first sending the contract of Meyers Leonard and a 2027 second-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Trevor Ariza, and then sending Moe Harkless and Chris Silva to the Sacramento Kings for Nemanja Bjelica.
The upshot was a first-round sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Bucks, a series dominated by the Bucks’ power rotation.
The irony is that the power player most coveted by the Heat at last year’s deadline, P.J. Tucker, instead was acquired from the Houston Rockets by Milwaukee at the 2021 deadline.
Now the Heat stand with Tucker, signed in August in free agency, as their rock at power forward.
The concern this time is the overall foundation at the position.
Last year, it was the struggles of Harkless that led to the moves. This time, it’s the absence of Markieff Morris, who has been sidelined since his Nov. 8 run-in with Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic. With a previous history of a neck issue, there is no guarantee of when Morris returns, or at what level. Otherwise, there is little depth at power forward beyond the undersized energy of Caleb Martin.
Still, if the Heat do make a move by the deadline, it figures to be subtle. Last year, the Heat balked at moving Duncan Robinson or Tyler Herro. This year, only now are all the Heat’s pieces coming together, after injuries and absences.
Instead, it could be what transpires around the Heat at the top of the Eastern Conference that ultimately proves most impactful.
If the Philadelphia 76ers pull the trigger on a move with Ben Simmons, it effectively would add another tangible element to their mix at no cost to what already has been rolled out this season. It would be hard to argue the likes of a C.J. McCollum not instantly making Philadelphia better, with anything with James Harden an absolute game changer.
As for the Bucks, with Brook Lopez sidelined another big body would make sense. Thaddeus Young on the buyout market might be the dream scenario, but otherwise a trade for one of the Sacramento Kings’ surplus of big men could be another direction or a move for Houston Rockets center Daniel Theis. Even a Bucks move for impending Boston Celtics free-agent guard Dennis Schroder could help swing the East equation.
As for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who aren’t going away at the top of the East race, it could be particularly intriguing if they could make something work for the Toronto Raptors’ expiring contract of Goran Dragic.
Arguably, Dragic could prove to be a universal donor across the board at the top of the East, with a fit there for the 76ers, Bucks, Cavaliers or even the Chicago Bulls or Brooklyn Nets. (The Heat are not eligible to reacquire Dragic unless he first is moved by Toronto to another team.)
The Bulls also could potentially be in play for something bigger, such as a move for the Detroit Pistons’ Jerami Grant.
And if the Nets do consider something with along the lines of Harden-Simmons, then the conference dynamic becomes that much more of an altered state.
In fact, because the top of the Eastern Conference has separated itself from the rest of the pack, it will be interesting to see what is moved from the bottom.
Last year, it was the Orlando Magic with the fire sale that included Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic and Evan Fournier. This year, it could be the Indiana Pacers who are the flailing team that proves open to all offers. Already, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner, Caris LeVert and Justin Holiday have been floated as possible relocation candidates.
In the end, all of that could leave the Heat in a very Heat-like position, of having to play defense.
With Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler back in the mix together, and with the intriguing possibility of a boost from Victor Oladipo, Pat Riley could well stand pat.
But in a conference so compactly bunched at the top, don’t rule out an arms race, one where being caught idle could mean falling behind.
