As stocks roll toward the end of the year, the Nasdaq is now up almost 33% and the S&P 500 has a 27% gain. The Nasdaq is running behind last year's 43.4% pace. But the S&P 500, up in four of the past five years, is now vying to top its 28.8% gain from 2019. IBD's Stock Market Exposure guide holds at the 80% to 100% level as indexes run at or near record highs. Distribution days remain low. But breadth has deteriorated sharply in December, with decliners outpacing gainers on the S&P 500 for seven straight sessions through Thursday. Investors should therefore be paying close attention to stocks that are extended, or which are not behaving well after breakouts.
Nike and FedEx are the heavy hitters on the coming week's earnings calendar. The Federal Reserve's policy announcement could stir some market action midweek. Buying opportunities are modest, but some interesting possibilities include Goldman Sachs, Confluent, Taiwan Semiconductor, TechnipFMC and Fortinet. Technip is in buy range. Confluent is setting up in a long consolidation. Taiwan Semi has a new base on base. Goldman and Fortinet's short consolidations are not yet full bases.
Economic Calendar: Divining The Fed's 2025 Strategy
Any suspense over whether the Fed would cut its key interest rate went by the wayside with the November CPI and PPI, reported on Dec. 11. A quarter-point rate cut is virtually certain. But suspense remains over what the Fed might signal for 2025. The Fed's new set of quarterly projections, to be released with the policy statement on Wednesday, might only signal a half-point in cuts, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. On the data front, retail sales for November, out Tuesday, are expected to rise a solid 0.4% overall, and 0.5% excluding autos, FactSet says. Personal income and outlays, out Friday, will include November's update of the core PCE price index, the Fed's key inflation rate.
Fed Gets Green Light For Rate Cut From CPI, PPI, Jobless Claims; S&P 500 Pauses
Blue Chip Radar: Focusing On Nike's New Chief
With Wolverine World Wide and Deckers Brands in the midst of healthy rallies, Nike continues to grovel through a downtrend begun early last year. On Thursday, its fiscal 2025 report faces expectations for ongoing steep earnings and revenue declines. The outlook doesn't offer much relief. Analysts have been lowering price targets for the Dow Jones retailer ahead of the report, with UBS noting Monday that sales growth trends have deteriorated over the past three months, forcing retail price cuts. Morgan Stanley on Friday said it thinks investors will focus more on commentary from new CEO Elliott Hill, who took over for John Donahoe in October.
Nike Stock Stuck On Harsh Downtrend Ahead Of Earnings; New CEO Aims For Turnaround
Transportation: Tracking FedEx Air, Ground Consolidation
FedEx reports fiscal second quarter 2025 earnings and revenue after the market closes on Thursday. Analyst consensus sees narrow earnings and sales gains. The company has implemented several cost-cutting initiatives in recent months, including combining its ground, air and other operations in a single company. The goal is to reduce costs by $4 billion by the end of its current fiscal year, ending in May. But shares gapped down sharply on Sept. 20 after cost cuts did not offset weakness in lucrative priority services. FDX stock then fell out of a two-month rebound in early December, finding support at its 10-week moving average.
Aerospace: Benefiting From Boeing's Struggles
Heico checks in with its Q4 results late Thursday. Investors will listen for progress on the aircraft components maker's recent acquisitions, including a specialty components maker and, separately, U.S. producers of jet cabin components and power distribution systems. They will also be tuned to any news suggesting that Heico is benefiting from Boeing's (BA) ongoing struggles, including its recent strike. With a year-to-date gain of 44%, Heico is now approaching a 10-year advance of 850%.
2025 Outlook: Underestimating the S&P 500
Standard & Poor's reported operating earnings for S&P 500 companies rose to record levels in Q3, the seventh straight quarter of positive results. At the end of last year, FactSet analysts set their bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 at 5131.92. The index on Friday traded at 6051, 18% above the estimate. Over the previous 20 years (2004 – 2023), FactSet reports the average difference between the bottom-up target price estimate at the beginning of the year (Dec. 31) and the final price for the index for that same year has been 6.9%.
Stock Market Earnings In Brief
Jabil will post its fiscal first-quarter results early Wednesday. The electronics contract manufacturer is predicted to earn $1.88 a share, down 28% year over year, on sales of $6.61 billion, down 21%. After consolidating since March, Jabil is in a cup-with-handle base with a buy point of 139.21.
Micron Technology will deliver its fiscal first-quarter results late Wednesday. Analysts see the memory-chip specialist earning $1.76 a share, vs. a year-earlier loss of 95 cents a share. Sales are forecast to rise 84% to $8.7 billion.
ABM Industries reports on its Q4 performance Wednesday. Analysts predict the maintenance services supplier's quarterly profit will slip 14% to 87 cents per share with sales easing to $2.08 billion. ABM stock has gained 26% in 2024 and is below a cup-with-handle buy point of 59.15.
Accenture serves up its fiscal first-quarter earnings early Thursday. Analysts project a 5% increase in adjusted earnings to $3.42 per share, according to FactSet. Sales for the management consulting firm are seen rising 6% to $17.2 billion. Accenture stock has spent most of 2024 consolidating and is just below a buy point in a cup-with-handle base.
Additional Earnings Briefs
Darden Restaurants reports early Thursday. Analysts see a 10% EPS jump on a 5% sales gain. Same-store sales are seen rising 1.5%. That would mark a rebound after three weak quarters, during which the parent of Olive Garden and other restaurant chains saw a sharp pullback among inflation-weary, lower-income consumers.
Carnival reports Q4 results early Friday. FactSet estimates put earnings at 7 cents per share, up from a loss of 7 cents last year. Revenue is expected to rise 10% to $5.92 billion. The stock, up 39% in 2024, is trading at its best level since late 2021. Barclays raised the stock's price target to 31 Friday, 20% above current levels.
