STOCK MARKET CARNAGE/RBA RATES
With US stock markets following the major falls seen around the world over fears of an American recession, attention has turned back to what the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) plans to do with interest rates today and for the rest of the year. The Australian says the current market turbulence has locked in expectations rates will be held “with economists expecting the RBA to lower its December headline inflation forecast on the back of Labor’s energy bill relief and rent assistance measures”. The AAP says four in five economists anticipated the cash rate would stay unchanged at 4.35% in August.
Looking further ahead, The Age reckons “home buyers could be delivered a super-sized interest rate cut before Christmas to protect the domestic economy from a US-led recession”. The paper says markets believe the RBA will have cut the cash rate to 4.1% by the festive period, with a 40% chance the bank will end the year with a half-percentage point cut.
Meanwhile, the AFR says Australian shares are poised to extend their losses today, “though relatively modestly”. Guardian Australia reports the ASX suffered its worst day since the onset of the pandemic on Monday, with losses over the last two trading days equating to $160 billion. The RBA’s decision today is set to be delivered at 2.30pm AEST and will be accompanied by refreshed economic forecasts.
As the economic volatility continued yesterday, Australians also learned that the country’s official terror alert level had been raised to “probable”. Last night, ASIO’s Director-General Mike Burgess spoke to the ABC’s 7.30 program, saying the change in threat level had been driven by increases in youth radicalisation, online radicalisation and the rise of “new mixed ideologies”. He expressed concern at the number of ideologies where violence was seen as permissible.
On Monday, Burgess revealed agencies had disrupted eight incidents in the last four months that involved alleged terrorism or were investigated as potential acts of terrorism. He later told 7.30 that across the eight incidents, there was an “equal mix of religiously motivated, nationalist and racist violent extremism”. On his concerns over violence, he said: “This is the new thing, people will go to violence with little or no warning, and they [have] little or no planning in some of these that I’ve talked about.”
CAPTIVE TO GAMBLING
Yesterday Crikey launched our new series Punted in which we’re mapping the gambling industry’s capture of Australia. Bernard Keane’s opening salvo, “How media companies and big sport fought gambling reform — and won”, can be found in the Crikey recap below.
This morning, Guardian Australia has the news that crossbenchers are furious at the reports that the government is planning a cap on television betting ads, rather than issuing a blanket ban. There is also anger at the reports the government met with betting, sport and media firms. The AFR previously reported the firms met with Communications Minister Michelle Rowland’s office last week to discuss the proposals and signed non-disclosure agreements. On Monday, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese responded to the reports about the government’s plans for gambling ads by telling reporters in Canberra: “Don’t believe everything you read in the paper. We’ll announce what our preferred solution is when we announce it. I don’t comment on speculation.”
In Paris, it was a family affair on Monday as Australia’s Noémie Fox stole the headlines after emulating her older sister Jess by winning gold in the kayak cross. “You don’t really dare to dream this big, but I did this time,” Noémie said afterwards, The Sydney Morning Herald reported, also quoting her sister as saying: “I’m so proud of her [Noémie] and I’m drenched because I jumped into the water.”
Elsewhere, gymnastics legend Simone Biles finished her Olympics with a silver in the floor exercise final, losing out to Brazil’s Rebeca Andrade by 0.033 points, Guardian Australia reports. Earlier in the day she fell during her routine in the balance beam and finished fifth. “I can’t be more proud of how I’ve done. I’m 27 years old walking away from this games with four medals to add to my collection. Not mad about it,” Biles reflected.
After the Olympics and global economic uncertainty stole most of the headlines worldwide over the last few days, the ever-present US election cycle is set to step up a gear again, with Reuters reporting Vice President Kamala Harris has narrowed her running mate choice down to two men — Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania and Tim Walz of Minnesota. Harris is expected to make her announcement on Tuesday (local time) before appearing with her VP candidate at a rally in Philadelphia in the evening.
ON A LIGHTER NOTE…
Gold medalist Lola Anderson has revealed how her late father found a note she’d thrown away as a teenager about being an Olympic champion and handed it back to her just before he died.
After watching rowers Helen Glover and Heather Stanning win gold at the London 2012 Olympics, then 14-year-old Anderson wrote in her diary: “My name is Lola Anderson and I think it would be my biggest dream in life to go to the Olympics in rowing and if possible win a gold for GB.”
She told the BBC she had got embarrassed at writing the note and immediately ripped it up and threw it in the bin. Her dad, Don, later came across the note when emptying her bin. Seven years later, after being diagnosed with terminal cancer, he handed the inspirational note back to her. He died two months later.
Anderson said her father wanted her to have her teenage note “as a reminder and a memento that even when you don’t back yourself, your parents and loved ones always do”. In Paris last week Anderson won gold for Great Britain in the women’s quad sculls.
“I know that he’d be so, so proud. I’m thinking a lot about him right now,” she told the BBC after the event.
Say What?
I had to go to the airport, and the bear was in my car, and I didn’t want to leave the bear in my car because that would have been bad.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Preempting a profile in The New Yorker (published on Monday) the independent presidential candidate posted a video on X in which he admits to comedian Roseanne Barr that he dumped a dead bear cub in New York City’s Central Park in 2014. The 70-year-old said while he was on a falconry expedition another driver in front of him hit and killed the bear, the BBC reports. He said he put the animal in his van and was planning to skin and eat it later but ran out of time and decided to dump it in Central Park with an old bike to make it look like the cub had been hit by the bicycle.
CRIKEY RECAP
Labor is counting on the reality that even if 70% of voters want a gambling advertising ban, only a tiny fraction are going to change their vote because of it come the next election. A ban that results in animosity from the big media companies, which still dictate the media agenda and determine what images even disengaged voters see during election campaigns, simply isn’t worth it politically.
But the risk is that such a cynical cut-and-paste job alienates everyone — and confirms the impression that the Albanese government is too weak to make hard decisions and doesn’t stand for anything. It also confirms the toxic grip media companies have on public policy in Australia, one that has long harmed consumers and ensured Australia has a second-rate, oligopolistic media industry that invests more in ensuring it has a steady flow of regulatory wins from politicians than in quality journalism.
The National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) told Tourism Australia the $137,441 travel breach by three staff last year may involve “corrupt conduct that is serious or systemic”. It also reminded the agency of its obligation to report such suspicions immediately instead of waiting months.
While the NACC decided not to pursue the matter further, commissioner Paul Brereton wrote to Tourism Australia managing director Phillipa Harrison on June 5 to say the conduct in question “could involve a breach of public trust and/or an abuse of office”.
“I am of the opinion that the issues could involve corrupt conduct that is serious or systemic,” Brereton wrote.
The matter, first reported by Crikey, has since been referred to the Australian Federal Police, which has confirmed it is investigating.
When former Victorian premier Dan Andrews introduced the “strictest donation regime in Australia” in 2018, outlawing political donations larger than $4,320 and introducing a ban on foreign donations and a strict penalty scheme for those that did not comply with the rules, it looked like the epitome of a fair go. After all, giving every person an equal opportunity without discrimination or favouritism is what makes our country great.
I’m sure I was not alone when I cheered on these new rules, thinking that they would keep the Parliament from pandering to big donors with deep pockets. Wealthy people buying political influence through donations is basically as old as time itself, resulting in policies that don’t benefit regular folk but rather specific or niche interests.
And yet, upon close inspection, these 2018 rules are anything but fair. In fact, what the Liberal and Labor parties in Victoria didn’t want you to know was that they had rigged the game. How? By exempting a whole bunch of cash from the scheme to the tune of millions of dollars via their nominated entities.
READ ALL ABOUT IT
Biden, Harris head to Situation Room as Iran threatens attack on Israel (The Hill)
UK riots: Police brace for further violence as countries advise against UK travel (The Times) ($)
Bangladesh prime minister resigns as deadly anti-government rallies grip nation (CNN)
New Zealand helicopter pilot killed in Papua, police say (BBC)
Google violated antitrust laws in online search, judge rules (The New York Times) ($)
US Supreme Court declines to halt Trump’s sentencing in hush money case (Reuters)
THE COMMENTARIAT
Disinformation, irresponsible politicians and broken trust set light to these riots — Ian Birrell (The i paper): So the first crisis of Sir Keir Starmer’s time in Downing Street turns out to be a summer rampage of terror and thuggery stoked by the far-right. These repulsive merchants of hate have exploited the slaughter of three girls at a dance class and the stunned grief of a traumatised community to spread fear and violence.
They claim to be patriots fighting for their nation while sparking assaults on police, attacks on firefighters, beating up of black people, looting of shops, setting fire to cars and a library, smashing up hotels, terrorising places of prayer and threatening refugees.
The massive majority of British people will be horrified by this display of hate and anarchy as it vies for headlines with the heroism of a yoga teacher who protected small children from the Southport knifeman and genuine patriots performing wonders at the Olympic Games.
Warning signs of US recession may be bad news for Kamala Harris — Larry Elliott (The Guardian): Donald Trump’s message to US voters has been consistent as he seeks to win a second term in the White House: the economy under Joe Biden has been a disaster.
Until recently the hard data has not supported Trump’s argument. The US has been comfortably the fastest-growing of the G7 leading industrial nations since the Covid pandemic. Unemployment has been low by historic standards. America’s self-sufficiency in energy meant it suffered a less severe inflation shock than Europe after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Yet the former US president now has some evidence to back up his case. The latest set of US jobs figures, released last week, showed the labour market cooling fast. Payroll growth in July slowed to 114,000 — about half the average of 215,000 in the previous 12 months and well below economists’ expectations. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.3%.
