On a trip to South Wales in January, Andrew Bailey gave the strongest of hints that he believed 4.5% would mark the top of the interest rate cycle.
Well it won’t be too long before we find out if the Governor was right.
Today’s earnings figures performed the remarkable feat of being both too hot... and too cold.
At 6.6%, hot enough in cash terms to make it highly likely that yet another touch on the monetary tiller is coming on May 11. Yet so cold compared with sizzling inflation that real wages fell heavily for the 15th month in a row.
But for an monetary policy committee mandated with bringing inflation back down to 2%, it is the hot number that counts.
The growing question now is whether 4.5% rates will do the job. The markets are starting think perhaps not. A further rise to 4.75% by June is now seen as more likely than not: a 54% probability.
Even 5% is firmly in the mix with a 35% probability of interest rates hitting that level by September. For context, that is roughly the same odds as bookies will offer you today for Arsenal winning the Premier League. A less than 50-50 shot but far from impossible.
Inflation is the wildfire that simply cannot be put out.
If the City consensus is correct, inflation should finally fall below 10% when the ONS does its big reveal for March tomorrow morning. But not all forecasters are convinced.
If it does stay in double digits then Mr Bailey might well have to rethink and say goodbye to his 4.5% hopes.
