Katy Balls
(Picture: Evening Standard)Move out of the way, Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak, there’s a new generation of Tories in town. The flavour of the month in the leadership contest is those untainted by Boris Johnson. Older candidates are finding themselves cast out — Nadhim Zahawi and Jeremy Hunt fell on the scrap heap last night — in the place of younger colleagues who could give the party a makeover after the chaos of the last few years.
Recent polls of the membership have upset the incumbents and aided the insurgents. A ConHome poll put Penny Mordaunt as the favourite to be the next leader, followed closely behind in second place by Kemi Badenoch. While Mordaunt has some cabinet experience — dating back to the Theresa May years — Badenoch has never gone above junior minister.
It’s led to sniping from senior Tories that these candidates could struggle if thrown in at the deep end to No. 10. One former Cabinet minister goes so far as to suggest it would be “irresponsible”.
But there is another way of looking at it. When I put to Badenoch at her campaign launch that she lacked the experience, she replied that it was an asset, as if “people want a fresh face, they can’t have anybody who has been in Cabinet a very long time.” It’s an argument supporters of Mordaunt use too.
There’s a certain logic to it. After months of toxic briefings and Government chaos, from partygate to simple failures on delivery, picking someone not tied to those decisions frees the party of much of the Johnson baggage.
But there’s also a risk when it comes to the final two. Speak to Tory MPs these days and it’s quicker to find out who they don’t want for Tory leader than who they do. The remaining Johnson loyalists tend to take an “anyone but Rishi” stance, pointing to his alleged disloyalty. There’s so much venom among this group that even MPs who back Sunak worry it could mean yet more Tory psychodrama if he enters No. 10.
Meanwhile, with Truss emerging as the candidate of the Right, there are ample one-nation Tories willing to swing behind pretty much any candidate who might stop her reaching the membership.
Only putting a less-tested candidate in the final two is a risky business. Part of the reason candidates like Mordaunt are receiving so much initial buzz is down to the fact that if you don’t know that much about a person there is not that much to dislike. Research from Savanta ComRes this week found that only 11 per cent of the public and 16 per cent of Conservative voters can correctly name Mordaunt when shown a photo of her. That’s compared to 66 per cent of the public and 77 per cent of Tory voters for Sunak.
The risk is that a dark-horse candidate like Mordaunt makes it to the final two and then struggles under the scrutiny. If you don’t know much about someone to begin with, it won’t take much for you to change your mind about them. Recent history points to the pitfalls. Andrea Leadsom — a key backer of Mordaunt — made the final two against May in the 2016 Tory leadership contest after Johnson’s campaign imploded. A committed Brexiteer, she looked as though she might make it all the way.
Instead, a series of rookie errors, including a calamitous interview recorded in a coffee shop, saw her quoted as taking aim at May for being childless. She ended up exiting the race of her own accord.
It’s why, as Mordaunt-mania starts to take off, MPs will be thinking carefully about their next move. Like the membership, MPs seem more enthusiastic about the fresh faces than the established Cabinet names.
But given that they all have someone they really don’t want to succeed Johnson in No. 10, they had best take care that the candidate they get behind can take the pressure of weeks of debates, media interviews and scrutiny about their professional and private lives. Already the attacks have begun, with some MPs branding Mordaunt “part-time Penny” over an alleged lack of focus on ministerial work. An allegation her supporters say is a smear.
There is one final factor at play. The Tories are picking not just a party leader but the next Prime Minister. Some members of the public might be rather surprised to find that someone they have barely heard of is now in charge. It makes their first few months in the job, which are bound to be tough with inflation high and energy prices rising, make or break for the new premier. There is little room for error.
