The starting gun was fired last February. For the first time since Boris Johnson led the Conservatives to a decisive victory at the polls, the government set out how it plans to deliver its 'defining mission' – Levelling Up the United Kingdom.
The 300-page document signalled that the next stage of devolution in Greater Manchester is on the horizon with a commitment to 'immediately' start talks about handing over more powers to local leaders. As one of just two city-regions selected to enter talks for the 'Trailblazer' deals, the outcome of these negotiations is set to be a 'blueprint' for other parts of the country to follow.
By the summer, mayor Andy Burnham had set out his demands for Greater Manchester's latest devolution deal. This includes more control over trains, powers to punish rogue landlords and more influence over college funding.
The Labour mayor has also called for more streamlined funding, suggesting a single block grant similar to the financial arrangements in Scotland and Wales. But more than a year after the Levelling Up White Paper was published, the Trailblazer talks - which were set to signed by 'early 2023' - are still ongoing.
Conversations between officials continued while Westminster was in chaos after Boris Johnson's resignation. But until a new Prime Minister was in place, the 'caretaker government' could not formally make any new policy decisions.
Liz Truss's short-lived premiership prolonged delays to detailed negotiations. But her departure paved the way for a key character to return – Michael Gove.
Sacked as levelling up secretary in the summer amid mass resignations from the Johnson government, Mr Gove returned to the role under Rishi Sunak. His return was welcomed by some in Greater Manchester, not least by the mayor.
Mr Burnham has been full of praise for the Conservative minister. Earlier this year at a major regional convention in Manchester, the Tory MP joked that the pair agreed on so much that it could be 'fatal' for the Labour mayor's career.
But its not just Mr Gove who will need be won over for Greater Manchester to get what it wants. The minister was quizzed at the Convention of the North about the 'resistance' within central government to hand over more powers.
Mr Gove told host Evan Davis that civil servants in Whitehall are 'haunted' by the need to demonstrate value for money and worry about giving up control but still being blamed for 'wasteful' spending. However, he assured politicians, business leaders and community representatives in the audience that this mindset is 'diminishing in power and influence with every day that passes'.
Talks between local officials and civil servants have been taking place every day. Meetings often take place via video calls rather than in person, removing the 'high stakes' feeling that comes with travelling by train to London for talks.
Insiders are optimistic that Greater Manchester will get much of what it wants from these negotiations, but officials have remained tight-lipped throughout. Time is ticking though, with less than two months left until the local elections which come with a ban on big political announcements in the weeks before it.
Those involved in the talks have been aiming for the deal to be done by the Spring Budget on Wednesday (March 15) so that it can be announced by then. But just last week one source said that they were still in 'hard negotiations'.
As we prepare for an announcement, the Local Democracy Reporting Service looks at what new powers Greater Manchester wants – and what it could get.
Skills
Greater Manchester's mayor has described this as the 'biggest missing piece in the jigsaw' for devolution, warning that without it, economic growth is at risk. But insiders say that this is also the biggest sticking point in the talks.
Setting out his demands in a speech in London last summer, Mr Burnham told the Royal Society for Arts, Manufacturers and Commerce (RSA) that investors always want to know how much influence he has over the local labour market.
"We can give them some answers," he said, appearing alongside West Midlands mayor Andy Street. "But the truth is they are not as strong as they need to be – and that leaves Britain at risk of losing out on potential inward investment."
The city-region has had devolved powers to run its own skills and employment support initiatives since 2014. Over the last four years, around 21,900 people were helped through the Working Well Work and Health programme - which was extended last November - resulting in 9,209 people starting new jobs.
Mr Burnham wants to build on this success and have more influence over what JobCentres do by working with the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP). But insiders say that another key government department involved in the negotiations over skills has historically been reluctant to hand over power.
The Department for Education (DfE) currently controls the funding for post-16 training courses – including T Levels, which one source says Mr Burnham is 'obsessed' with. This new type of qualification - an alternative to A levels and apprenticeships - is created with businesses who influence the skills learnt.
In December, the mayor announced plans to set up the UK's first integrated technical education system, giving school leavers who don't want to go to university a clear route. Working with the government, local colleges and businesses, Mr Burnham said the new system would be a 'game-changer'.
But, for the plans to work properly, Greater Manchester would need more of a say over funding for these courses so that opportunities offered align with the skills required in the local economy, he said. The city-region also wants control over the post-19 skills system and work-based learning for the same reason.
Behind the scenes, sources say that the city-region is not likely to be given full control over the education budget for 16 to 18 year olds, but local leaders may get more influence over them. T Levels will not be a 'central tenet' of the deal, one insider has predicted, with new powers over post-18 provision more likely.
Local leaders have said that giving Greater Manchester more control over the skills in the labour market - which has been a long-standing ask that predates Mr Burnham's time as mayor - could be the biggest triumph from these talks. But first, they must convince government officials to hand over more powers.
After interrupting a lengthy speech by the former education secretary, BBC presenter Evan Davis, who hosted the Convention of the North in January, asked the government minister directly: "Who genuinely believes Andy Burnham couldn't do a better job at skills in Greater Manchester than DfE?"
Addressing Manchester Central Convention Complex, Mr Gove said he has 'a lot of sympathy' for the Greater Manchester mayor's ambitions, praising him for making a 'powerful case'. Parroting Mr Burnham, the MP said all colleges in the city-region support the proposals, and so does the chamber of commerce.
However, he said: "There's resistance sometimes to devolution on the basis that if things fail, then it is central government that gets the responsibility, having given up the levers. The second reason sometimes - and this is not specific to skills, but more broadly - is that there is a worry that too much devolution works against the principle of redistribution.
"There is an argument that if everything exists within an overall centralised system, it's easier to shift resource to those poorer areas. I think that is wrong, but nevertheless I can understand that that concern comes from a place that is motivated by the right values, not the wrong values."
The Local Democracy Reporting Service asked the DfE to respond to claims that the department has been a barrier to devolution in the past and continues to be in the current Trailblazer deal talks. A government spokesperson said: "Addressing skills gaps in all areas of the country, including the Trailblazer area of Greater Manchester, is essential to boosting skills and levelling up.
"We recognise that there are different skills needs in different regions, which is why many of our skills programmes have local flexibilities that recognise this difference. We are engaged in final negotiations on the skills elements of the ambitious Trailblazer deals which are due to be announced shortly."
Transport
The London-style public transport system currently being created in Greater Manchester has defined Mr Burnham's second term as mayor so far. Buses are being brought under public control using powers devolved to the city-region.
Bus fares were slashed and standardised last September using government funding, one year ahead of the first franchised services being rolled out in Bolton and Wigan. Under the new system, operators will bid for contracts to run routes controlled by local leaders – and all buses will be emissions-free.
But the vision for the Bee Network extends beyond linking up buses, trams and rental bikes. Days before Christmas, when the mayor revealed which operators will be running the first-publicly controlled services later this year, Mr Burnham set out his plans to bring trains into the local transport network.
As part of the latest devolution talks, Mr Burnham has asked for powers to integrate six key routes into the Bee Network including Wigan to Victoria, Southport to Stalybridge and four lines connected to Manchester Piccadilly. If granted, a pilot of pay-as-you-go fares similar to the Metrolink's touch-in, touch-out system could be trialled on up to one in five local train services.
It comes after the mayor called for more control over train stations, describing the five in Manchester city centre as 'dangerous' and 'embarrassing'. Mr Burnham claimed that the stations have not had substantial investment for decades – although Network Rail has since started work at Salford Central.
Railway stations were part of previous devolution deals, but the government decided not to hand over the power to Greater Manchester in the end. Since then, the North of England has battled issues with train timetables and unreliable rail services which have struggled to recover since the pandemic.
Mr Burnham - who has joined other metro mayors in calling for privately-run railway operators to lose their contracts due to poor performance - says the stations in Manchester city centre are a 'very visible symbol' of the problems in the industry. "They are becoming outliers in a city of modern buildings and skyscrapers, relics of a different era," he said in his RSA speech last summer.
The mayor now wants control of all 98 stations in the city-region together with Network Rail's 'patch-them-up' budget to maintain them. However, he says Greater Manchester would take an 'innovative approach', working with the property industry, to 'maximise the value of the assets' and generate an income which would be reinvested in the stations, funding improvements.
Sources say nothing is certain until the whole deal is done. But insiders have indicated that an agreement has been reached on rail devolution already.
Housing
In Greater Manchester, it is estimated that around 40 pc of privately rented homes are not kept up to a decent standard, according to Mr Burnham. He wants local authorities to have the power to withhold housing benefits from rogue landlords who fail - or refuse - to keep their properties up to scratch.
Councils also want more funding so that they can use the powers they already have to punish landlords who do not deal with dangerous health hazards. But the tragic death of Awaab Ishak - the two-year-old who died due to mould not dealt with in his Rochdale flat - has put the spotlight on social housing as well.
Housing associations across Greater Manchester have backed the Good Landlord Charter which Mr Burnham hopes will drive up housing standards. Private landlords are not expected to have to pay to be part of the scheme, Salford mayor Paul Dennett said when he set out the proposals in January.
Exactly how the scheme will be funded is yet to be decided, Mr Dennett said. However, he said that some other changes are needed for it to work because - as Mr Burnham warned - punishing private landlords could affect the supply of homes available, exacerbating the existing housing and homelessness crisis.
Local leaders have called for the level of housing benefit paid to be increased and all councils to be given access to funding to build more affordable housing. They are hopeful that they will get some of the funding they have asked for.
Earlier this year, Mr Burnham told the Local Democracy Reporting Service that there is an 'appetite' from the government to 'explore' the ideas proposed. He said: "I think it's not unrealistic for me to say, given the public statements of the Secretary of State, I think that we are serving him up a solution that actually might give his work a greater degree of public-facing awareness."
Finance and accountability
It's not 'sexy', sources say, but giving Greater Manchester a single pot of funding could be a 'gamechanger' for devolution in England. Currently, the city-region is constrained in how it spends the cash it gets from government.
A single block grant - similar to the funding arrangements for Scotland and Wales - would give English regions more flexibility in how it spends money. The government has said it would 'explore' giving Greater Manchester a single departmental-style settlement at the next spending review during the talks.
This would give the city-region funding for a number of years and the ability to move money around, like government departments do. However, the current spending review period lasts until 2025, which means that even if these new funding arragements are agreed, they would not come into effect immediately.
Setting out his stall last summer, Mr Burnham told the RSA that he and the 10 council leaders in Greater Manchester are ready for 'real accountability'. He recognised that this would be required if the city-region gets more powers.
He accused Whitehall of making town halls 'jump through hoops' to access funding and called for national government to trust local authorities more. "But, in return," he added, "we should accept the same level of scrutiny that minsters and senior officials in a government department experience."
The Labour mayor said that officials in Greater Manchester are ready to be scrutinised in Parliament by the Public Accounts Committee while offering himself to be subject to the scrutiny of a select committee. However, he said that this level of accountability must come with greater transparency as well.
"With a single block grant agreed for a whole spending review period, covering a set of clear functions and delivering a set of outcomes agreed between Greater Manchester and government, we can clarify and simplify English devolution," He said. "Everyone will be clear about who is taking which decisions, what funding has been provided, and what we have agreed to deliver in return."
Sources say the next devolution deal for Greater Manchester is almost ready to be signed, but some parts of the agreement are still being negotiated. An announcement is expected on or soon after the spring budget next week.
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