The findings of an inquiry into groping allegations against a former government whip that hastened the downfall of Boris Johnson is expected to be published on Thursday.
The report by parliament’s standards watchdog could lead to a byelection in Chris Pincher’s constituency of Tamworth in Staffordshire if a suspension of more than 10 days is agreed.
Sources familiar with the process told the BBC they expected the punishment to meet the threshold for a recall petition.
Pincher was the Conservative deputy chief whip last summer when he was accused of drunkenly assaulting two men at the exclusive Carlton Club in London. At the time he apologised for drinking “far too much” and embarrassing “himself and other people”.
He resigned from the position and later lost the Tory whip, now sitting in the Commons as an independent.
The handling of the affair by Johnson, who was already battling to remain prime minister after revelations about numerous lockdown parties in Downing Street during the pandemic, was the final straw for his cabinet support.
He had appointed Pincher to the senior role overseeing party discipline despite being aware of an official complaint about his prior behaviour. Johnson eventually resigned last July after less than three years in No 10.
A recall petition could be triggered in Pincher’s seat if the standards committee recommends a suspension of at least 10 sitting days and the Commons approves it. If 10% of Tamworth voters sign the petition, a byelection would be triggered.
Pincher would have the right to appeal against the verdict to an independent panel providing he can offer new evidence or point to a procedural inaccuracy. The MP, who was elected with a majority of more than 19,000 in 2019, has told the Conservative party he will step down at the next general election.
Two byelections on 20 July in Uxbridge and South Ruislip in west London and in Selby and Ainsty in North Yorkshire were triggered by the resignations of Johnson and his ally Nigel Adams in June. Nadine Dorries, who announced that she was standing down at the same time, has still not formally resigned, and so no date has been set for a byelection in her Mid Bedfordshire constituency.
The third, in Somerton and Frome, was prompted by the resignation of David Warburton.
He was suspended from the party in April 2022 pending the outcome of an investigation into allegations of harassment and drug use.
Last month Warburton admitted taking cocaine after drinking “incredibly potent” Japanese whisky, but denies claims of harassment.
