ANALYSIS — Even though the midterms are 20 months away, it’s not too early to project that the headliner of the 2026 elections will be the fight for the House majority.
Republicans’ three-seat Senate majority and a dearth of competitive races puts next year’s battle for the Senate on a side stage compared with the House elections. After gaining a seat in 2024, House Democrats need to gain just three seats to claim the majority next year.
According to Inside Elections’ initial individual House race ratings of the 2026 cycle, the fight for the majority looks to be a close, district-by-district battle. But cycles, particularly midterms, can evolve and sometimes even change dramatically.
The initial 2026 House battleground consists of 64 seats rated as either Toss-up (10 races), Tilt (13), Lean (22) or Likely (19), with two or three races in Ohio currently outstanding over a pending new congressional map.
The initial playing field is disproportionately Democratic turf, with the party defending 34 vulnerable seats compared with 30 currently in GOP hands. That makeup aligns with the high correlation between presidential results and House outcomes and the fact that there are 13 Democrats who represent districts where President Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris and just three Republicans who represent districts where Harris beat Trump.
But Republicans are defending a disproportionately larger share of the Toss-up races. Seven House Republicans are in races rated a Toss-up, including Reps. Juan Ciscomani (Arizona’s 6th District), Gabe Evans (Colorado’s 8th), Mariannette Miller-Meeks (Iowa’s 1st), Tom Barrett (Michigan’s 7th), Ryan Mackenzie (Pennsylvania’s 7th) and Jen Kiggans (Virginia’s 2nd). The contest for New York Rep. Mike Lawler’s 17th District is also rated a Toss-up, and the seat would be even more vulnerable for Republicans if he vacates it to run for governor.
On the Democratic side, Reps. Adam Gray (California’s 13th District), Derek Tran (California’s 45th) and Don Davis (North Carolina’s 1st) also start in Toss-up races, but they might soon have company from colleagues in the Buckeye State.
Ohio’s 15 districts are not included in the initial Inside Elections ratings because of redistricting anticipated this cycle. Democratic Reps. Marcy Kaptur (9th District) and Emilia Sykes (13th) will either be at some or significant risk, depending on the new lines. It’s also possible that Democratic Rep. Greg Landsman in the 1st District is vulnerable as well, but that’s less likely.
Kaptur won reelection last fall by less than a point, and Sykes did so by just more than 2 points, so it wouldn’t take a lot for state Republican mapmakers to make their races more difficult. But the political environment could be better for Democrats next year compared with 2024. At this stage, in a more neutral political environment, Democrats can’t afford to lose any of their own seats.
Under the current conditions, the race for the House majority should be very close. But cycles have a way of evolving, and battlegrounds can shift in size and makeup, particularly in midterms.
For example, in February 2009, the initial House battleground consisted of 33 seats, including 10 held by Republicans and 23 held by Democrats. By the end of the 2010 cycle, the battleground had ballooned to 109 competitive seats, including 100 held by Democrats. Republicans gained 63 seats that cycle in response to President Barack Obama’s first years in office and perceived Democratic overreach with the Affordable Care Act.
In February 2017, at the beginning of Trump’s first midterm election cycle, the House battlefield consisted of 43 seats — 28 held by Republicans and 15 by Democrats. But by the end of the 2018 cycle, the number of competitive seats had doubled to 89 seats. Republicans were dramatically on the defensive, with 81 vulnerable seats compared with Democrats’ eight, and Democrats gained a net of 41 seats that cycle to flip the chamber.
With Trump’s aggressive first few weeks in office, history may repeat itself.
Typically, midterm elections go poorly for the president’s party, particularly in the House. Winning parties in presidential election years prematurely declare a mandate and overreach, and voters respond by sending more members of the “out” party to Washington as a check and balance.
Support for Trump’s policies on government efficiency, tariffs and foreign policy will wane if his actions start to hurt people’s everyday lives. Economic decline or instability and questions about national security would likely excite Democratic voters, turn off independents and temper GOP enthusiasm. Republicans already have the challenge next year of turning out Trump voters when Trump isn’t on the ballot.
GOP lawmakers are currently confident they are acting well within a mandate voters gave their party in 2024, but there could be increased tensions between Trump and Republicans on Capitol Hill later in the cycle. House Republicans are poised to take the brunt of voter dissatisfaction if the president’s policies don’t go well, because Trump doesn’t have to face voters in 2026.
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