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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Business
Graeme Wearden

US inflation rises to 3.5%, weakening hopes of early interest rate cuts – business live

Fitch Tesco China Inflation United States Ken Murphy Xinhua
The New York Stock Exchange.
The New York Stock Exchange. Photograph: Michael M Santiago/Getty Images

Closing post

Time to recap…..

A closely watched measure of US inflation picked up in March, rising to an annual rate of 3.5%.

The consumer-price index (CPI) – which measures a broad range of goods and services – rose 0.4% from February, higher than the 0.3% expected. Core CPI, which removes the volatile food and energy categories rose 0.4% from February v an expected 0.3%.

The latest news will be closely parsed by the Federal Reserve, which has been attempting to cool inflation with a series of interest rate rises. Monthly inflation figures proved higher than expected in both January and February.

Inflation has fallen sharply from a high of over 9% in 2022 but it has remained stubbornly above the Fed’s target rate of 2%.

More here:

The dollar strengthened on the news, as investors ripped up forecasts of three cuts to US interest rates this year.

Global stock markets also weakened, with the US S&P 500 currently down 53 points or 1% at 5,156 points.

Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard, sums up the situation:

“The likelihood of a June Fed rate cut declined materially today. Three months of surprisingly strong services inflation are difficult to explain away and suggest that demand strength could be sustaining elevated US inflation, which limits the Fed’s ability to ease policy.”

In other news:

Aggressive use of industrial policy by the world’s most powerful economies risks becoming an expensive mistake that could trigger a tit-for-tat subsidy war, the International Monetary Fund has said.

In a warning shot to governments around the world, the IMF said attempts to increase innovation only worked under certain limited conditions and were not a “magic cure” for slow growth.

Era Dabla-Norris, the deputy director of the IMF’s fiscal affairs department, said:

“History shows that getting industrial policy right can be a tall order, and there are many cautionary tales of policy mistakes, high fiscal costs and negative spillovers to other countries.”

Investec have changed their view of US interest rates on the back of this afternoon’s stronger than expected March CPI release.

They now expect just two quarter-point cuts to interest rates, having previously forecast three cuts this year.

Investec’s Philip Shaw explains:

The Fed will now be less convinced that inflation is heading sustainably towards its 2% PCE target and seems likely to become increasingly cautious about bringing interest rates down.

Indeed it is difficult to envisage committee members claiming that they are data driven, but ignoring a run of poor inflation numbers and then easing policy. Moreover with the labour market strong and few signs of a wider economic slowdown, the FOMC has time to assess the inflation outlook for a while longer without a serious risk of triggering a recession.

Accordingly our baseline case is now that the FOMC will pass on a rate cut in June and we now see two 25bp moves over 2024 (from three previously), most likely starting in September. Our end-year forecast for the Fed funds target range is now 4.75%-5.00%.

Sterling has now lost a whole cent against the resurgent US dollar today, with the pound down 0.8% at $1.2575 this afternoon.

Here’s the views of Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies, on today’s hotter-than expected US inflation report:

  • Inflation numbers weakens the case for a June cut from the Fed, particularly as the super-core inflation remains high.

  • We are in the camp of fading the initial reaction. Our view still remains that whether we get two or three cuts from the Fed is not the right question. The right question is that if we see weakness in the economy will the Fed react. And the answer to that question still remains yes.

  • Hence we favour buying dips in risky assets.

  • We continue to see a rangebound market for rates and do not see the sell-off as the start of a sustained move higher in rates.

European stock markets have dropped to a one-month low this afternoon.

The pan-European Stoxx 600 index fell 0.6% to its lowesst since mid-March, with property and financial stocks leading the fallers.

Today’s US inflation report isn’t as bad at it looks, insists, Preston Caldwell, chief US Economist at Morningstar:

“The core inflation news isn’t as bad as it looks at first glance, increasing 0.36% month-over-month. Subtract a few hundredths of a percentage point and the headlines would be far less alarming.

Caldwell adds that core US inflation was partly pushed up by components which don’t feed into the PCE index, which is another inflation measure favoured by the Federal Reserve, adding:

As such, core PCE inflation is likely to come in around 0.2% to 0.25% month-over-month for March, much milder than core CPI.

If core PCE inflation ends up around 0.25% or higher, chances of a Fed Funds Rate cut in June become less than 50%, though not impossible. If core PCE inflation ends up at 0.20%, then a June rate cut is still more likely than not in our view.”

Wall Street falls after hot inflation shock

Ding ding goes the opening bell of the US stock market…

And down go stocks, with the Dow Jones industrial average (of 30 large US companies) and the broader S&P 500 index both losing around 1% at the start of trading.

Janet Mui, head of market analysis at wealth manager RBC Brewin Dolphin, says markets are losing patience over how long inflation is taking to fall to target:

“US inflation comes in hotter than expected for the third consecutive month, which killed off the chance of a rate cut in June.

This is a highly consequential inflation report given that we have seen a string of stronger than expected data from the US in recent weeks and markets were already unsure whether the Federal Reserve can ease policy as guided.

Headline core (ex-food and energy) and super-core (services ex-housing) inflation came in at a pace that will probably make the Federal Reserve feel uneasy. Although inflation is moving in the right direction, the market is losing patience on the path to the destination.

Updated

Bank of England and ECB could start cutting before the Fed

Daniele Antonucci, Chief Investment Officer at Quintet Private Bank, agrees that today’s US inflation figure “pours cold water” on any expectation of imminent cuts to America’s interes rates.

It could mean that European central banks cut rates before the US Federal Reserve, Antonucci explains:

Not only did the numbers surprise to the upside once again. The all-important core measure, which strips our volatile components such as energy and food, did beat expectations too.

It’s possible, and we think likely, that the central bank will reduce its policy rate this year. This is because, while the economy remains quite robust at this stage, it should slow further out.

Also, the Fed’s preferred measure, which is based on the personal consumption expenditure index, has surprised to a lesser extent and its level is lower, perhaps posing a lesser hurdle to at least starting to reduce rates.

Yet we think the timing is now more uncertain than ever and we see a greater chance that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England start their rate cutting cycle ahead of the Fed.

US central bankers are very unlikely to cut interest rates in June, as some investors had previously hoped, explains Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management:

“Today’s crucial CPI print has likely sealed the fate for the June FOMC meeting with a cut now very unlikely.

This marks the third consecutive strong reading and means that the stalled disinflationary narrative can no longer be called a blip.

In fact, even if inflation were to cool next month to a more comfortable reading, there is likely sufficient caution within the Fed now to mean that a July cut may also be a stretch, by which point the US election will begin to intrude with Fed decision making.”

Wall Street’s main stock indexes are set for steep losses after today’s hotter-than-anticipated inflation report.

Hopes that US interest rates could be cut as soon as June are being dashed by the annual 3.5% increase in inflation last month – well over the Fed’s 2% target.

The Dow Jones industrial average is on track to drop by 1.1%, while the broader S&P 500 is down 1.3% in premarket, and the tech-focused Nasdaq futures contract is 1.4% lower.

The opening bell will ring in 20 minutes….

Updated

Hopes that we might see a new high on the UK stock market today are being dashed by the US inflation report.

The FTSE 100 index of blue chip shares has lost its earlier gains, and has subsided back to 7937 points (+0.03% today).

Before the CPI report hit the wires, it was trading just below 8,000 points, just 50 points away from the record high (8,047 points, set in February 2023).

Higher gasoline price and high rent are keeping US inflation above 3%, points out Heather Long of the Washington Post:

Auto costs – to either insure or repair a car – are also on the charge, she points out:

Harvard professor Jason Furman, who chaired President Obama’s council of economic advisors, is concerned by the pace of core inflation:

Updated

Dollar hits highest against yen since July 1990

More ructions in the foreign exchange market!

The Japanese yen has weakened to its lowest level against the US dollar in 34 years.

The higher-than-expected US inflation reading has driven the dollar up to 152.31 yen, +0.35% today, levels last seen in 1990 (the year of German reunification, the launch of the Hubble Space telescope, and a memorable football world cup).

Reuters says the markets are alert to any signs of intervention from the Japanese authorities to prop up the yen.

Update: This is unfortunate timing, as Japan’s PM Fumio Kishida is visiting Washington today:

Updated

Core inflation, which strips out volatile items such as energy and food, was also hotter than hoped.

The all items less food and energy prices index rose 3.8% in the year to March, dashing hopes of a fall to 3.7%.

That included a 5.7% jump in the shelter index, which tracks housing costs.

The inflation report adds:

Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include motor vehicle insurance (+22.2 percent), medical care (+2.2 percent), recreation (+1.8 percent), and personal care (+4.2 percent).

US bond prices are also falling, pushing up the yield (or interest rate) on Treasury bills.

That’s another sign that investors are anticipating that interest rates will stay high for longer than hoped.

The US dollar is rallying, as traders conclude that early interest rate cuts are less likely.

The dollar is up 0.4% against a basket of currencies, while the pound has dropped half a cent to $1.2614, as the markets digest today’s US inflation report.

US inflation rises to 3.5%

Newsflash: Inflation across the US rose at a faster pace last month, as the cost of living squeeze continued to grip American households.

The US consumer price index rose by 3.5% per year in March, new data shows, up from 3.2% in February. That’s higher than the 3.4% which economists expected.

Energy prices rose by 2.1% ove the last year – the first 12-month increase in that index since the period ending February 2023. Food prices were 2.2% higher than a year ago.

On a monthly basis, prices rose by 0.4%, again higher than expected.

The index for shelter rose in March, as did the index for gasoline; they made up over half of the monthly increase in inflation.

The energy index rose 1.1 percent over the month. The food index rose 0.1 percent in March. The food at home index was unchanged, while the food away from home index rose 0.3 percent over the month.

This hotter-than-expected inflation report may lower the chances of cuts to US interest rates as soon as this summer.

Updated

The UK’s FTSE 100 share index continues to rally ahead of the US inflation report, to 7,999 points, up 0.8% or 65 points today.

If the US CPI report fuels hopes of early interest rate cuts, it could move higher, although a higher-than-expected inflation reading could push stocks down….

Updated

Global investors are bracing for the release of the latest US inflation figures in 15 minutes time.

The expectation is that Headline CPI for March will rise to +3.4% year-on-year, from +3.2% previously, showing that prices rose at a faster rate last month.

David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, says:

If so, that will mean that it has tracked sideways for the past nine months, having fallen to a 25-month low of 3.0% in June last year. This is not the kind of data that will encourage the Fed to cut rates anytime soon.

In the auto sector, Volkswagen Group has reported a drop in deliveries of electric cars in Europe this year.

Volkswagen says deliveries of all-electric cars in Europe were down 24% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, at 74,400 vehicles.

Overall, shipments of all-electric Volkswagens fell 3% to 136,400, despite a 91% jump in sales to China.

But overall, Volkswagen Group increased its deliveries in the first quarter of 2024 by 3% to 2.10 million vehicles. The main growth drivers were China (+8%), South America (+14%) and North America (+5%).

Updated

Shares in Tesco are continuing to push higher.

They’re now up over 4% at 299p, making them the top riser on the FTSE 100 index.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, argues that Tesco is reaping the benefits of “putting the customer first”:

For some time, it has been lowering prices on core lines in recognition that consumers are under financial pressure. That’s helped it to maintain appeal to a large number of shoppers and retain their loyalty while also helping it better compete against Aldi and Lidl. The results are clear to see – profit is going up; the business is in great shape; and it is growing market share.

A lot of companies have reported a rise in revenue in recent years that’s simply been down to raising prices. What’s more important is looking at sales volumes as any growth indicates the customer is buying more products rather than simply shelling out more for the same items. Volume growth indicates a healthy business. On this basis, Tesco is fit as a whistle.

“It’s helped that Tesco has benefitted from people trading down from higher end retailers. Accepting that a high interest rate environment means more careful monitoring of how money is spent, even wealthier individuals have taken steps to shift their spending habits. Whereas once they might have been happy to spend big at Waitrose or Ocado, some of these consumers have shifted to Tesco and found that its Finest range still offers the higher quality products they desire, but at a cheaper price point.

“A good company will always take the spoils of a fruitful period and reinvest the winnings back into the business. That’s precisely what Tesco is doing now. It is using AI to drive productivity, putting automation technology at the heart of a new distribution centre, and making the supply chain more efficient among other activities.

German company bankruptcies hit another record high

Over in Germany, the number of companies failing has hit a new high.

The Leibniz Institute for Economic Research Halle (IWH) has reported that insolvencies by German partnerships and corporations rose to another record high in March.

According to the IWH, there were 1,297 insolvencies of partnerships and corporations in Germany in March.

That’s 9% more than the previous record, set in February, and 35% more than in March 2023

IWH points out that insolvencies often lead to high and permanent losses of income and wages for the affected employees.

More happily, IWH believes an end to the increase in the number of insolvencies is in sight, citing recent signs of economic improvement.

Updated

China attacks EU "protectionism" over wind subsidy probe

Looking back at China… Beijing has criticised the European Union for launching a subsidy investigation into Chinese wind turbine companies.

China’s foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told reporters today:

“The outside world is worried about the rising tendency of protectionism in the EU,”

“China is highly concerned about the discriminatory measures taken by the European Union against Chinese companies and even industries.”

Yesterday, EU competition chief Margrethe Vestager announced an inquiry into whether Chinese companies who are involved in wind parks across Europe may have benefited from state support from Beijing.

The investigation will use the EC’s new powers designed to clamp down on subsidies from foreign governments that distort markets.

UK government debt remains in demand.

An auction of British government bonds today attracted the strongest demand from investors for gilts since April 2020, Reuters reports.

The Debt Management Office sold £4bn of the 3.75% 2027 gilt and attracted orders worth £14.7bn - a ratio of 3.68.

That’s the highest ratio of orders to bonds on offer, known as the bid to cover ratio, since April 2020.

Updated

Even though inflation pressures are easing, millions of households are still struggling.

More than 7.4 million people in the UK struggled to pay a bill or a credit repayment in January, according to financial regulator the FCA this morning.

That’s significantly higher than before the cost of living crisis began, although lower than last year when prices were rising at a faster rate.

The FCA is reminding consumers in financial difficulty that lenders are obliged to listen to customers’ concerns, and that discussing options with a lender won’t hurt your credit score.

Steve Vaid, chief executive of the Money Advice Trust, the charity that runs National Debtline, says:

“Millions of people are still struggling with this cost of living crisis, and we all need to do more to make sure they get the help and support they need.

“The FCA’s decision to make permanent its pandemic-era protections for people in debt is a welcome step – and the regulator has set clear expectations for firms on the crucial role that debt advice plays.

China's outlook cut: what the experts say

Fitch’s downgrading of China’s credit outlook today highlights the dilemma that policymakers are facing, as they try to stimulate growth and cut debt levels, explains Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING:

On one hand, there is certainly a need to support economic growth in the near term, and fiscal support in our view is important in order to avoid falling into a so-called “Japanisation” trap, where the economy enters into a negative feedback loop of weak confidence, falling asset prices, and slower economic growth. This will cause government debt levels to rise in the near term.

On the other hand, long-term fiscal consolidation efforts remain important. In China’s case, finding a viable alternative for land sales is an important step to take in the medium term, but the obvious solutions to this – like increasing other taxes – are unpalatable at the moment given the current state of the economy. Nonetheless, the land sale driven model of government financing will also need to change as China’s economy transitions.

The downgrade doesn’t mean China is going to default any time soon, though, explains Gary Ng, Natixis Asia-Pacific senior economist, adding:

“Fitch’s outlook revision reflects the more challenging situation in China’s public finance regarding the double whammy of decelerating growth and more debt.”

Dan Wang, chief economist of Hang Seng Bank China, says Fitch’s move reflects “fundamental concern” over China’s fiscal health and its ability to drive long-term growth.

Wang adds:

“With lagging private investment, state-backed funding has become even more important in driving growth, either in terms of infrastructure spending or in local government guidance funds for high tech industries.”

Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, sounds relaxed about Fitch’s move, though, telling clients this morning:

A credit rating agency (it does not matter which) has done something (it does not matter what) to China’s rating outlook. Investors will already be aware of the underlying economics behind this move.

Britain’s air traffic services provider has turned to the former chief of Rolls-Royce, after last summer’s meltdown which caused thousands of flights to be cancelled.

Warren East will take over as chairman of NATS in September, it announced this morning.

Chief Executive Officer, Martin Rolfe says East’s knowledge and insight into the aviation sector, and his experience of technology-led transformation, will be “enormously valuable”.

East left Rolls-Royce on New Year’s Eve 2022 after an eight-year stint at the jet engine manufacturer, having previously run Arm, the Cambridge-based chip designer.

Tech expertise will be welcome, as NATS is currently modernising its systems, upgrading the technology its controllers use to manage air traffic.

NATS was under fire last year after its service was disrupted by a wrongly input flight plan which led to hundreds of thousands of passengers’ flights being disrupted.

Updated

In the City, the FTSE 100 share index has risen in early trading, as investors anticipate this afternoon’s inflation report from the US.

The Footsie, which contains the largest hunded companies listed in London, is up 43 points or 0.5% at 7977 points.

That takes it near last week’s one-year high, and not too far from the alltime high of 8,047 points set in February 2023.

Grocery firm Ocado are the top riser, up 4%, amid a general rally in tech stocks.

Updated

Shares in Tesco have jumped 1% in early trading, to 290p.

Sophie Lund-Yates, lead equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says this morning’s results have lifted optimism:

Tesco has shown once again that it deserves its best-in-class crown. Underlying retail profit has come in a smidge above upgraded guidance at £2.76bn, as the group’s efforts to beat rivals on price pays dividends.

Crucially, the supermarket is seeing volumes pick up once more, which is a saving grace as inflation tempers. If prices can’t rise, you need customers to buy a higher number of items if margins are to stay intact.

The group’s stellar proposition has meant it’s been able to increase the full year dividend by 11%, thanks to the substantial levels of cash pumping through Tesco’s veins

Tesco is planning to make £500m in efficiency savings in the year ahead.

It will cut costs with new techniques, including a robot-led distribution centre for fresh produce and fitting 100 stores with solar panels over the next three years. More here.

Tesco predicts that food inflation will stabilise in low single digits for the rest of the year.

CEO Ken Murphy is speaking to reporters now, and explains:

“I see that stabilising, that kind of low single digit for the rest of the year is our planning assumption.”

Murphy adds that inflation is still sticky for some products, such as cocoa (where poor harvests in extreme weather conditions have led to a tripling of prices), potatoes and coffee.

UK union Unite has taken a swipe at Tesco for growing its profits in a cost of living crisis.

Unite general secretary Sharon Graham says:

“Tesco is raking in mountains of cash while families struggle to put food on the table because of sky high prices. Many companies have used the cost-of-living crisis to grab excessive profits.

“There is an epidemic of profiteering in our economy – the government has been missing in action and failed to curb it.”

Tesco would doubtless deny accusions of profiteering.

Today’s financial results show it ran operating profit margins of 4.2% in the UK and Ireland in the last financial year – which is 42 basis points higher than the previous year.

Tesco adds that its current year operating margin is now similar to pre-pandemic levels.

China says Fitch rating outlook downgrade "regrettable"

China’s Ministry of Finance has said Fitch’s move to downgrade the country’s sovereign credit rating outlook is “regrettable”, news agency Xinhua reports.

Xinhua adds:

Fitch’s rating system has failed to effectively reflect the positive effects of China’s fiscal policies on boosting economic growth and stabilizing the macro leverage ratio in a forward-looking manner, the ministry said in a statement.

Tesco: inflationary pressures have lessened substantially

Britain’s largest supermarket chain has declared that inflationary pressures have “lessened substantially”, as it reports a jump in profits.

Tesco has posted a 12.8% rise in adjusted operating profit for the last financial year, up to £2.8bn, and a 7.4% rise in group sales.

CEO Ken Murphy says the group is encouraged by signs that consumer sentiment is improving, and offers hope that the worst of the cost of living squeeze may be over.

Murphy says:

Inflationary pressures have lessened substantially, however we are conscious that things are still difficult for many customers, so we have worked hard to reduce prices and have now been the cheapest full-line grocer for well over a year.

We have continued to invest in helping customers where it matters most, cutting prices on more than 4,000 products and doubling down on our powerful combination of Aldi Price Match, Low Everyday Prices and Clubcard Prices.

Recent data suggests Murphy is right – inflation in shop prices in the UK fell to a two-year low in March, amid a fall in food price inflation across major economies.

Tesco is expecting to grow its profits this year; telling shareholders it expects retail adjusted operating profit of at least £2.8bn in 2024-25.

On a statutory basis, Tesco’s pre-tax profits swelled to £2.3bn from £882m in 2022, up 159.5%.

Updated

Introduction: Fitch cuts outlook on China to negative

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

Credit rating agency Fitch has fired a shot across Beijing’s bows, by cutting the outlook on China’s debt.

Fitch has revised the outlook on China’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating to Negative from Stable today, warning that risks to China’s public finance outlook are rising.

China, Fitch points out, is facing “more uncertain economic prospects” as it transitions away from growth based on its property sector, where a construction boom has burst.

Fitch also kept China’s credit rating at A+, which is the fifth-highest investment grade rating, but the new negative outlook implies this rating could be cut in coming months.

Fitch identifies several threats to China’s fiscal stability, including a rising deficit, increasing government debts, and risks posed by the “Local Government Financing Vehicles” used to fund property projects.

It says:

Wide fiscal deficits and rising government debt in recent years have eroded fiscal buffers from a ratings perspective.

Fitch believes that fiscal policy is increasingly likely to play an important role in supporting growth in the coming years which could keep debt on a steady upward trend. Contingent liability risks may also be rising, as lower nominal growth exacerbates challenges to managing high economy-wide leverage.

Fitch also warns that China faces “near-term growth headwinds”, predicting growth will slow to 4.5% in 2024, from 5.2% in 2023. It adds that deflation “remains a concern”.

Also coming up today

Investors around the world are poised for the latest US inflation report, due this afternoon. It is expected to show a small pick-up in the pace of price rises, lifting the US CPI rate to 3.4% from 3.2%.

But core inflation could keep slowing, perhaps down to 3.7% from 3.8%.

The US central bank, the Federal Reserve, wants to push inflation lower, so today’s data will influence how soon it can cut interest rates.

Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell, says:

The central bank wants to see sustained evidence of inflation coming down and that doesn’t appear to be on the menu. The signs are clear for investors to see, but many have been choosing to ignore them.

The Fed putting it into black and white could be a difficult pill for investors to swallow, so brace yourself for turbulence on the market this week.”

The agenda

  • 7am BST: Sweden’s GDP report for February

  • Noon BST: US weekly mortgage applications

  • 1.30pm BST: US inflation report for March

  • 2.45pm BST: Bank of Canada interest rate decision

Updated

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