In one of the largest elections in the world, Indonesians are gearing up to cast their votes for a new president. However, as the nation prepares for this momentous occasion, the United States and China find themselves in a high stakes competition over their growing rivalry in the region.
Indonesia holds great significance as a key battleground for both economic and political influence in Southeast Asia. The global powers have been on a collision course for years, with tensions arising from issues such as Taiwan, human rights, U.S. military deployments, and China's assertive actions in disputed waters, including the South China Sea.
President Joko Widodo, who is on his way out of office, pursued a foreign policy that carefully avoided taking sides between Beijing and Washington. This delicate balancing act allowed for significant Chinese trade and investment in Indonesia, including the funding of a $7.3 billion high-speed railway. At the same time, Jakarta also strengthened defense ties and intensified military exercises with the United States.
If election front-runner Prabowo Subianto, the current defense minister, wins, it is likely that these policies will continue. Subianto has a policy of neutrality and has publicly praised both the U.S. and China. During a forum last November at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, he highlighted America's historical role in pressuring the Netherlands to recognize Indonesian sovereignty in the 1940s. He also acknowledged China's contributions and importance to Southeast Asia, calling it a 'great civilization.'
Anies Baswedan, a presidential candidate trailing Subianto in most independent surveys, has expressed a different approach. He intends to shift what he describes as President Widodo's 'transactional' foreign policy to one anchored on principles if he wins the elections. Baswedan emphasized the importance of human rights and environmental protection as the foundations of Indonesia's foreign policy. He stated that if values are compromised, Indonesia would only support countries that prove profitable.
Respected former Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa hopes that the newly elected leaders will not merely proclaim their non-alignment but actively contribute to creating a more stable U.S.-China relationship. The U.S. and China have witnessed how the emergence of new leaders in the region can pose threats to their interests.
The case of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte serves as an example. Duterte, known for his anti-crime platform, became a vocal critic of U.S. security policy while fostering close ties with Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Duterte threatened to evict American military personnel and terminate defense agreements with the U.S., but later reversed these decisions during the height of the pandemic when he appealed for vaccines. Duterte's successor, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., approved an expansion of the U.S. military presence in the Philippines in response to China's aggressive actions in Philippine-claimed offshore areas.
As members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), Indonesia and other countries aspire to remain non-aligned, a legacy of the Cold War-era. Nonetheless, the rivalry between the U.S. and China has made its mark in the region. Criticisms of China's assertiveness in the South China Sea have been watered down within ASEAN, with certain member states, such as Cambodia and Laos, opposing any reproach against China. The Philippine government accused Chinese coast guard vessels and suspected militia forces of using aggressive measures against Philippine coast guard ships in the disputed waters, but ASEAN's general expressions of concern avoided directly naming China during their summit meetings.
The outcome of Indonesia's presidential election will certainly have implications for the U.S.-China rivalry in the region. Both global powers recognize the importance of Indonesian influence and the need to navigate this intricate landscape. Regardless of who wins, Jakarta's commitment to non-alignment seems unwavering, presenting a challenge for the U.S. and China in their pursuit of regional dominance.
Disclaimer: This article is generated by an AI assistant. The content has been created based on the provided information and aims to provide an informative analysis of the topic. It should not be seen as a factual report or reflect the views of any specific individual or entity.
