Another year and another climate conference is upon us, this one in Azerbaijan. It will start off on a positive note for India which recently hit the 200 GW mark in its non-fossil fuels installed capacity, or how much power it can produce from energy sources such as solar and wind. But the world is still far behind in its attempt to halt the juggernaut of global warming, and India can do better.
Globally, developed countries have not only failed to halt their emissions but are also faltering on their promises to deliver climate finance. The world is still way off the mark to limit the earth’s temperature rise under 2 degree Celsius (°C), let alone a more stringent target of 1.5°C by the end of this century.
New analysis shows that if India is to contribute to limiting global warming under 1.5°C, it is far behind in adding to its solar and wind energy capacity. At the current pace of rollout, India will fall short of the needed capacity in 2030 by 140 GW of solar and 70 GW of wind. This is also in line with the target to triple renewable energy as agreed in last year’s conference.
IndiaSpend wrote to the Union Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change and the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy with questions on why India is lagging behind the target, what India plans to do to scale up renewable energy and phase down thermal power, problems in scaling up solar and wind, and when India will submit its updated Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs. This story will be updated when we receive a response.
Adding fuel to fire
Since the 1980s, each decade has been warmer than the previous one and the past nine years have been the warmest on record. 2023 was the warmest year on record by a huge margin, and 2024 carries on the trend. An example of warming in 2024 is that Mount Fuji in Japan has been without snowfall for the longest period in the last 130 years.
Global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) set a new record in 2023 with a 1.3 percent increase from 2022 levels. This increase is more than the annual rise in the decade before the pandemic (2010–2019), when GHG emissions grew at an average of 0.8 percent per year.
GHG emissions across the G20 members also increased in 2023 and accounted for 77 percent of global emissions. If all African Union countries are added to the G20 total, more than doubling the number of countries from 44 to 99, total emissions increased by just 5 percentage points to 82 percent.
India has the highest increase in total GHG emissions between 2022-23 at 6.1 percent followed by China at 5.2 percent. But India is way behind in per capita GHG emissions as well as historic emissions. In simple words, developed countries have contributed the most to the mess we are in. That is why there has been a growing outcry over developed countries not setting a new climate finance target. This finance is critical for countries like India to decarbonise its economy and reach net zero.
India has asked that developing countries be given $1 trillion a year in climate finance.
While India has a net zero deadline of 2070, it has not specified when its thermal power generation will peak or be phased down/out. The United Kingdom recently shut down its last coal power plant.
Nearly all of the coal-power capacity under development (98 percent) is now concentrated in just 15 countries, with China and India alone accounting for 86 percent. This is according to Global Energy Monitor’s latest Global Coal Plant Tracker (GCPT) results from July 2024. The GCPT catalogues all coal-fired power units of 30 megawatts (MW) or larger biannually.
As per the Paris Agreement, the next set of climate targets, formally known as nationally determined contributions or NDCs, are to be communicated by February 2025. As finance gets deliberated upon, there are expectations from every country, including India, to aim higher in the new NDCs and increase the pace of phasing down fossil fuels and increasing renewables to curb global warming.
Harnessing the sun and wind
If you consider the global case, on average, wind and solar capacity needs to grow five times by 2030, and eight times by 2035, to align with 1.5°C. To close the renewables capacity gap in 2030, countries need to install, on average, three times more wind and solar a year over 2023-2030 compared to the average pace achieved since 2020.
Even India’s wind and solar generation needs to grow five to six times by 2030 to align with 1.5°C. Just over 600 GW of wind and solar would be needed by 2030 (460 GW of solar and 150 GW of wind), but India is not on track to achieve this target. At the current pace of rollout, India will fall short of the targeted 2030 capacity by 140 GW of solar and 70 GW of wind, analysis by NewClimate Institute and Climate Analytics--both climate change research organisations--shows.
India’s current renewable targets are to reach 319 GW of solar and 110 GW of wind by 2030, as laid out in the National Electricity Plan 2022-32. But under current policies and market conditions, the IEA estimates that solar capacity will reach 238 GW in 2028. Meanwhile, wind capacity is projected to reach 69 GW in 2028.
“We extend the IEA’s capacity forecast for wind and solar (which is provided out to 2028) to 2030 and compare to the benchmarks presented in this report,” researchers from NewClimate Institute and Climate Analytics stated. “This highlights that currently, India is on track to achieve its 2030 target for solar of just over 300 GW but is not on track to install the 110 GW of wind targeted in the NEP.” Therefore, India is lagging on its own target for wind energy, let alone the targets required for a 1.5°C compatible world.
Where things stand now
India’s installed capacity to produce solar power stands at 90.76 GW as of October 10, 2024. This is followed by wind at 47.36 GW, large hydro projects generating 46.92 GW and small hydro power adding 5.07 GW.
Thus, India’s non-fossil fuels installed capacity (including large hydro) crossed the 200 GW milestone for the first time in October. India’s target is to meet 50% of its 2030 electricity installed capacity with non-fossil fuels. As of today, non-fossil fuels’ installed capacity alone stands at 46.3 percent of the country's total installed capacity. (Note: In the above press release, the term used is ‘renewables’ and not ‘non-fossil fuels’. However, ‘renewables’ here includes large hydro, which is no longer considered renewable because of its ecological impact. Therefore, the term we have used is ‘non-fossil fuels’ and not ‘renewable’.)
India also has a second target to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel-based electricity installed capacity by 2030 as well. Even Amitabh Kant, India’s G20 sherpa, recently said that India should aim for 750 GW of renewable energy capacity and become a clean energy exporter by 2030.
To align with 1.5°C, fossil fuels must exit the Indian power sector before 2045, the analysis suggests. But is scaling down fossil fuels and ramping up renewables easier said than done?
Researchers from The Energy and Resources Institute have pointed out that community and business participation in solar rooftop has been muted largely on issues related to high upfront capital cost and lack of sufficient incentives.
Since its launch in February, 12.8 million households have signed up for the PM Surya Ghar rooftop solar scheme. But with poor awareness, issues of import reliance, net metering and the apathy of discoms, the challenges before the sector could affect the success of the scheme.
Despite its vast potential, off-shore wind is very costly. Earlier this year, the Union Cabinet chaired by the PM approved a Viability Gap Funding scheme for offshore wind energy projects at a total outlay of Rs 7,453 crore.
The government had recently also brought in a policy that allows for repowering of old wind turbines, but challenges remain. Repowering is a costly affair, might require more land, wider access roads, consent of all turbine owners in joint projects and indigenous manufacturing capabilities, experts say. The progress on nuclear energy has also been slow due to high cost and environmental concerns.
Even if India manages to rapidly scale up renewables, capacity additions are daunted by acute financial distress of DISCOMs caused by inflexible energy subsidies, outdated infrastructure, high Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses, and cross-subsidisation of energy. Furthermore, the grid must be equipped to store surplus renewable energy given that grid integration of intermittent RE is a critical challenge, experts believe.
This report is republished with permission from IndiaSpend, a data-driven, public-interest journalism non-profit. It has been lightly edited for style and clarity.
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