Political tragics with eyes on independents at the federal election are waiting to see whether 2022 set a high watermark, or the tide on major parties is still turning.
A record number of independents three years ago swept previously safe Liberal seats, after a strong push for more climate action and integrity in politics.
They were helped by an unpopular prime minister in Scott Morrison, Liberal infighting over committing to a net-zero emissions target and the pandemic revealing social inequalities that pushed people away from "politics as usual".
Former Wallabies captain turned independent senator David Pocock made history by breaking the major parties' dichotomous hold on ACT senate seats, with Labor and the Liberals traditionally split one apiece.
He has since used his time in the upper house, where the government doesn't have a majority, to negotiate 221 amendments to legislation.
He's also seen boosts to his campaign when the major parties align to ram through contentious laws.
"Australians are starting to realise you can have a representative that's accountable to you, that makes decisions, weighs them up and decides what does the community actually want?" he tells AAP.
"We've seen time and time again this parliament, the major parties vote together when it's in their self-interest or if it's in the interests of vested interests.
"Australians are sick of that."
Of the Morrison factor, Senator Pocock is less convinced.
"We saw Cathy McGowan, Helen Haines, Andrew Wilkie, Zali Steggall long before ScoMo was a thing," he contends.
The ACT election bodes well for his re-election chances after two independents were elected for the first time in two decades.
The independent vote also held up at a NSW state by-election where former Sophie Scamps staffer Jacqui Scruby won Pittwater from the Liberals, a seat that overlaps Ms Scamps' federal electorate of MacKellar.
The coalition and conservative groups have been critical of the independents, claiming they're in bed with Labor or too radical.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton on Thursday accused them of being "Greens in disguise" and accused the minor party of having crazy policies.
Senator Pocock says it proves his point about major parties' recalcitrance to act against the root cause of issues including climate change.
"It's a sad reflection on some of the thinking that if you actually want to look after this incredible continent, you're somehow some radical," he says.
"The extremists are the ones trying to destroy the very thing Australians love about ... our home."
The Sydney seat of Bradfield is worth watching to see if the teal vote is holding and could be a bellwether, says analyst Kevin Bonham.
"If they're winning or close to winning Bradfield, then they're close to holding all the others," he predicts.
Independent challenger Nicolette Boele took a massive chunk out of former Liberal minister Paul Fletcher's margin at the last election and his retirement could put her closer to claiming the seat.
The finance and clean energy executive argues the major parties have put major reforms on housing and climate in the too-hard basket.
People's attitudes range from disappointed "through to frustrated and angry", she says.
"Major parties ... continue to mud-sling and play politics while voters are feeling the brunt of the cost-of-living crisis, housing crisis and, particularly for young people, concerns about climate."
Two uninspiring leaders are failing to give people hope and solutions to major problems, she adds.
Meanwhile, momentum for change is underlined by the more than 1000 volunteers who signed up with her before the election was called.
The Liberals are also throwing the kitchen sink at Goldstein in the heart of Melbourne after former journalist turned independent Zoe Daniel unseated Liberal moderate Tim Wilson in 2022.
The seat is expected to be a tight contest, with Ms Daniel convinced the sentiment of residents wanting to move away from major parties remains.
"Much of the feedback is ... 'we don't trust either of them and we really need you guys there to hold them to account'," she says while acknowledging apprehension bias.
"As a sort of measure ... I have more volunteers on my campaign now than I did at the same point before the last election so we're really generating a lot of momentum."
Australians are frustrated by major parties flip-flopping on key issues and simply want progress, Ms Daniel says.
"They're sick of politics as usual, they want something different."
She also brushes away criticisms about teal independents being party-aligned.
"We're not sheep, we don't just go to one side or other of the chamber; everything is considered on its merits," she retorts.
Independents usually receive a big boost after getting elected because they're better, according to election analyst Ben Raue.
The West Australian seat of Curtin is a special case and could see the Liberal primary vote increase yet there wasn't a good showing at the state election, he says.
The electorate was won by independent Kate Chaney but is one the Liberals believe they can reclaim by leveraging WA's mining dependency against her pro-climate action stance.
There is no longer a struggling coalition government in power which would make it harder for challengers to unseat Liberal incumbents, although "it's not like Peter Dutton is a massive break from Scott Morrison," Mr Raue says.
Abandoning teal seats in favour of making gains in the outer suburbs "is not a plausible path to victory", he says, as the Libs target the working-class vote by leaning heavily on cost-of-living pain to flip Labor seats.
For Pollster Kos Samaras, young people abandoning the coalition over issues like housing are gravitating towards minor parties and independents rather than Labor because its offering isn't much better.
