Russia on Friday raised the emergency level in the Kursk region to “federal” as Ukraine pressed on with a major cross-border incursion. Launched on Tuesday, Kyiv’s offensive is the most significant attack on enemy soil since the Ukraine war started in 2022 and could prove to be either very profitable or very costly.
Russia declared a "federal-level" emergency in the Kursk region bordering Ukraine on Friday and rushed reinforcements to the area as Kyiv pressed on with a major cross-border incursion. The brazen offensive is the most significant Ukrainian attack on Russian soil since the start of Moscow's full-scale invasion, and could prove to be either very profitable for Kyiv or very costly.
Ukraine’s army was battling Russian forces behind enemy lines for a fourth day on Friday, after its troops stormed across the border in a surprise attack on Tuesday.
While Kyiv has not officially taken responsibility for the attack, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Thursday that Russia needed to "feel" the consequences of its ongoing war in Ukraine.
Russia declared a state of emergency in the border region of Kursk Wednesday and evacuated thousands of residents, with President Vladimir Putin describing the attack as a “large-scale provocation”.
Large-scale operation
More than one thousand soldiers along with some thirty tanks and armoured vehicles from Ukraine's Sumy region north of Kharkiv are thought to have crossed the border into Russia’s Kursk region on Tuesday.
“Ukraine is said to have sent two brigades – including one mechanised – with special forces, anti-air defence and drone pilots", said Huseyn Aliyev, a senior lecturer in Central and East European Studies at the University of Glasgow.
Ukrainian troops have made rapid advances over the past few days, reportedly penetrating as far as 35 kilometres into Russian territory, according to the independent US-based Institute for the Study of War.
While pro-Ukrainian militias made up of Russian nationals opposed to Putin, such as the Freedom of Russia Legion, have staged several cross-border raids in the past, this is the first offensive involving Ukrainian troops.
Read moreA look at the Free Russia Legion, the pro-Ukrainian group that attacked Belgorod
“It's the first time Ukrainian ground troops have entered Russian soil since the war began,” said Glen Grant, a senior defence expert at the Baltic Security Foundation.
"It's significant because [Ukraine’s incursion] represents the most substantial co-ordinated attack into Russian territory," added Will Kingston-Cox, Russia specialist at the International Team for the Study of Security Verona.
Risky gamble
Kyiv’s cross-border attack on Russia has come as a surprise to many, with the Ukrainian army reportedly suffering from a shortage of personnel and ammunition.
"Let's be honest, no one knows why they did it,” Grant said.
“It's both unusual and unexpected given that Zelensky is always claiming he doesn't have enough men and weapons to defend the front line," Aliyev added.
Kyiv's move could be regarded as a “pre-emptive attack” designed to prevent a Russian offensive into Ukraine's Sumy regime, said Frank Ledwidge, a senior lecturer and military analyst at the University of Portsmouth.
“It's risky to do this, but from a military point of view it makes sense,” he added.
Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak appeared to give another explanation on Wednesday by arguing that operations in “Russian border regions” would impact Russian society and benefit Kyiv in future talks with Moscow, online news outlet The Kyiv Independent reported.
"Ukraine is demonstrating its ability to strike into Russian territory with [its] regular army and not just holding its positions on the front line," said Kingston-Cox. "That could have a strong psychological impact on Russia, where people may start saying, 'How are we supposed to take territory if we're not able to defend our own?'"
Meanwhile, Kyiv’s offensive may also help boost morale among Ukrainians.
“Ukraine has had no major victory since retaking Kherson (in November 2022). It could be an attempt by the Ukrainian government to show some sort of victory or success,” Aliyev said.
In that respect, Ukraine successfully making inroads across the border, and appearing to catch the Russians unawares, can be seen as a victory in and of itself, he added.
Sluggish Russian response
Moscow has come under fire for its slow response to the Ukrainian attack – not least because Russian forces had supposedly strengthened their defensive lines in the wake of earlier incursions in the Belgorod region last year.
A prominent Kremlin-affiliated military blogger claimed that Russian forces repeatedly warned their high command about Ukrainian forces massing along the border with Kursk region, but that the Russian command failed to prepare for a potential invasion, the Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update.
Communication problems within the Russian military may have been responsible for the sluggish response, Grant said, adding: "No one wants to tell bad new to the boss, so they are lying and eventually when the truth comes out, it's already quite late. I don't even believe Putin really knows what's going on."
Kingston-Cox, however, suggested that Russian authorities may have been aware of Ukraine’s pending raid and used it to their advantage.
“Putin’s accusation of a large-scale provocation is aimed at rallying support. It is probable that the Russians had intelligence of an incursion into Kursk,” Kingston-Cox said, adding that Russian authorities hoped to rally public opinion against Ukraine.
Either way, it is unlikely that Ukraine will press on with the offensive much longer.
"It's very risky and Ukraine knows there is a price to pay: Russia will launch counter attacks, and no one knows whether the [Ukrainian] troops will be able to hold,” Ledwidge said.
Moreover, Ukraine's limited resources mean it cannot afford to fight on a new front within Russian territory.
"It's quite risky to put too many resources into this offensive," said Aliyev, noting that the seasoned soldiers deployed in Kursk "could be used to reinforce the Donbas frontline, where Russia is gaining some ground".
This article is a translation of the original in French.
