The AIADMK, which severed ties with the BJP in late September, has begun to make efforts to win over religious minorities, especially Muslims.
As part of this strategy, the party and its General Secretary, Edappadi K. Palaniswami, demanded a few weeks ago in the Assembly that long-time Muslim prisoners be released. Though the AIADMK was not the only party to raise this issue, its identification with the matter did not go unnoticed. In fact, in his reply to the debate on the issue in the House, Chief Minister M.K. Stalin questioned the “special concern” of Mr. Palaniswami and wondered why the AIADMK, which had been in power for 10 years, had turned a “blind eye” to the plight of Muslim prisoners. However, as far as the AIADMK General Secretary is concerned, the DMK regime “is trembling with fear” that the AIADMK would register a resounding victory in the Lok Sabha election after snapping ties with the BJP. Also, he has claimed that of late, representatives from minority groups have been meeting him and extending their support.
The Dravidian major’s decision to break the alliance with the BJP came in for appreciation from former MLA Thamimum Ansari. This was significant as Mr. Ansari had remained a critic of the AIADMK regime during 2016-2021 after getting elected from the Nagapattinam Assembly constituency on the AIADMK’s symbol of “two leaves.” One of the reasons he turned critical of the Palaniswami government was the friendly approach the the Dravidian major took towards the BJP.
Even before the announcement of the separation came, the AIADMK’s two decisions — the opposition to the Uniform Civil Code and the readmission of former Labour Minister A. Anwhar Raajhaa into the party — were meant to reassure the minorities. Mr. Raajhaa was known for his strong views against the BJP and he fiercely opposed the Triple Talaq Bill in December 2018.
In recent weeks, Mr. Palaniswami has emphasised that his party would not have any alliance with the BJP even for the next Assembly polls, slated for 2026. In fact, immediately after the 2021 Assembly election, certain sections of the AIADMK felt the need to revive ties with minorities. This was echoed by C.Ve. Shanmugam, former Law Minister and Rajya Sabha MP. Even though, at that time, party coordinator O. Panneerselvam and Mr. Palaniswami dismissed the talk of parting ways with the BJP, it was obvious that uneasiness prevailed between the two parties at the field level, a feature noticed even during the 2021 Assembly election when the AIADMK’s vote share in contested seats (40.48%) was well ahead of the BJP’s (34.25%).
Critics of the BJP would often say that in times of success, neither of the Dravidian parties had any electoral tie-up with the BJP. In 2001 and 2021, the DMK and the AIADMK approached the electorate with the BJP as their ally. On both occasions, they lost power. However, the situation with respect to the Lok Sabha elections was different. In two of the four elections — 1998 and 1999, the BJP was with the side that secured a majority in the State. In 1998, the BJP’s ally was the AIADMK and the next year, it was with the DMK. The results of the other two polls — 2004 and 2019 — were disastrous when the principal Opposition party and the BJP were partners again. The alliance could not win a single seat in 2004 whereas it netted only one in 2019.
Need of the hour
There is a view within the AIADMK that severing ties with the BJP alone would not guarantee success in elections. The organisation has to put in place a “formidable alliance,” along the lines of what Jayalalithaa did during the 2011 Assembly elections. It remains a moot point whether the AIADMK will be able to attract any of the DMK allies to its fold. Also, the Dravidian major, according to veterans in the organisation, has to drive home the point that it is firm in its opposition of the BJP. This has assumed importance in light of a campaign by the DMK that the divorce between the two former allies was “a farcical drama.” What has also been observed is that in the last month or so, the AIADMK has not come out strongly against the BJP on any matter. It seems that the AIADMK has to take some more steps if it is keen on securing the confidence of the minorities during the Lok Sabha election.
ramakrishnan.t@thehindu.co.in
