The outcome of six out of the eight Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, up for voting in the second phase of the Lok Sabha election on April 26, is likely to mirror the sentiments of the farmers, Dalits, and Marathas in the primarily rural State.
The constituencies going to polls include Akola, Amravati, Yavatmal-Washim, Buldhana, Wardha in the Vidarbha region and Nanded, Parbhani and Hingoli in Marathwada, both regions of rural distress in the western State.
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Barring Amravati, which was clinched by the actor-turned-independent MP Navneet Kaur-Rana, the rest were won by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-Shiv Sena alliance in 2019. This time around, Congress candidates are in fray in almost all the seats.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Ministers Amit Shah, Nitin Gadkari, BJP national president J.P. Nadda, his Shiv Sena (UBT) counterpart Uddhav Thackeray, NCP (SP) supremo Sharad Pawar, Chief Minister Eknath Shinde, and several top leaders from Congress, have campaigned in these regions.
In Vidarbha and Marathwada, both large and small-scale farmers reside alongside a significant population of Dalit and Maratha voters, who are said to be disenchanted with the current administration due to various issues, including reservation. Vidarbha (1,439 cases) recorded the highest number of farmer suicides in 2023, followed by Marathwada (1,088 cases), according to data from the state relief and rehabilitation department. Cotton, soybean, and sugarcane are the primary crops in these areas, which consistently report the highest number of farmer suicides in the country annually due to crop failures.
Interesting contests
This time, the elections have thrown up an interesting contest as Ms. Rana is contesting as a candidate from the ruling BJP, sparking strong resentment among local BJP leaders, leaders of Chief Minister Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and independent MLA Bacchu Kadu. It has emerged as a three-corned contest in the seat, which is reserved for Scheduled Caste, with Congress fielding sitting MLA Balwant Wankhede and Mr. Kadu backed Dinesh Bub.
The Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi chief Prakash Ambedkar, the grandson of Dr. B.R. Ambedkar, is contesting from Akola, which has also emerged as a three-way contest, with the Congress, a constituent of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), giving the ticket to Dr. Abhay Patil, a Maratha, unlike in in 2014 and 2019 when the party had fielded a Muslim nominee - Hidayatulla Patel. The BJP has nominated Anup Dhotre, son of sitting MP Sanjay Dhotre who won the seat in 2004, 2009, 2014, and 2019.
Once a stronghold of the Congress, the Akola constituency in West Vidarbha boasted influential leaders like Vasant Sathe, who served as a Union Minister from 1980 to 1982. With the exceptions of 1996 and 1999, when Mr. Prakash Ambedkar was elected as MP; the BJP has maintained its dominance in the constituency.
Litmus test for Chavan
Nanded, which shares a lengthy border with Telangana, is another battleground to keep an eye on in the second phase. The victory of BJP’s incumbent MP Prataprao Chikhalikar Patil will serve as a test for two-time Maharashtra Chief Minister Ashok Chavan, who recently switched allegiance to the BJP, breaking ties with the grand old party that his family had long been associated with. Mr. Chavan was defeated by Mr. Chikhalikar in the 2019 election by a margin of over 40,000 votes, and now he is actively campaigning for the latter as if he were the candidate himself. Amravati, Akola, and Nanded boast significant numbers of Dalit, Maratha, and Muslim voters.
Maratha reservation, split in Shiv Sena and NCP, inflation, the farmers’ crisis, water scarcity, healthcare, road connectivity, and employment opportunities are significant electoral concerns in these areas. While topics like the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s image garner more attention in urban centres, particularly district headquarters, they are less discussed in rural regions, mirroring a broader pattern seen across several constituencies in the State, which sends 48 MPs to Lok Sabha, the largest number after Uttar Pradesh’s 80. In these eight constituencies, both, ruling MahaYuti and opposition MVA is relying on the support of the Other Backward Class (OBC) voters, who also constitute a significant portion of the electorate.
