For the first time in over 30 years, the Green Bay Packers won’t have Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers under center come Week 1, but even in a post-Rodgers world, the franchise is in decent shape when it comes to the ever-important quarterback position.
This day was coming. Favre left during a drama-filled summer in 2008, and Rodgers, who turns 40 in December, wasn’t going to play forever. He was officially traded to the New York Jets on Wednesday. While change of this magnitude at quarterback is hard and provides a difficult path forward, the Packers have put in place safeguards and provided themselves options.
In Jordan Love, the Packers have a hand-picked first-rounder with undeniable athletic ability and arm talent who has developed for three seasons behind Rodgers (who actually provided mentorship) and within Matt LaFleur’s diverse, quarterback-friendly scheme. The team saw glimpses of high-level play during brief appearances last season and is confident in his development. His footwork and mechanics improved under Tom Clements tutelage in Year 3. And he should now be an expert in the offense, a key element to playing fast and confidently at the position. In an ideal world, Love enters his fourth season ready to play at a starter’s level and then proceeds to show the Packers enough to buy him into as the long-term answer.
But even if Love isn’t a competent starter, it’s not necessarily the end of the world in Green Bay.
In trading Rodgers to the Jets, the Packers added value to a pair of important contingency plans. Green Bay improved its spot in the first round and added a second-round pick in 2023, providing opportunities to move around the board and potentially draft another talented developmental quarterback during the first two days, ala Brian Brohm in 2008. Brohm didn’t work out, but replicating the process can’t be dismissed. Quarterbacks are too important not to take big swings in uncertain situations, and Gutekunst already proved he’s got the boldness as a decision-maker to take a quarterback in an uncomfortable spot to safeguard the long-term stability of the franchise. If a quarterback the Packers think can be a franchise-level player falls to one of their picks, it would malpractice not to seriously consider taking the quarterback. Love isn’t a sure thing, no matter how confident the team is in his potential. However, it’s unclear how likely such a scenario is for the Packers in this year’s draft, given the likelihood of the top four quarterbacks coming off the board in the top 10. Could Hendon Hooker (who is 25 and coming off an ACL injury) be in play if he falls? Maybe.
So, what if the Packers pass on a quarterback early in the 2023 draft and Love falls on his face as a first-year starter? Well, there’s a clear path forward in that scenario, too.
Not only did Gutekunst acquire a second-rounder in the 2023 draft, but he got the Jets to deal him a conditional second-rounder in 2024 that can become a first-rounder if Rodgers plays 65 percent of the snaps. As long as Rodgers stays healthy, the pick is a guaranteed first-rounder. Even if he doesn’t, the Jets wouldn’t be good and the pick would be a high second-rounder. Add in a likely high first-rounder if Love fails, and the Packers would have all the draft capital necessary in 2024 to target one of the top quarterbacks in the class (Caleb Williams?). This is a far more bumpy path, and no one in Green Bay wants to see Love fail, but the Packers won’t be stuck if Love isn’t the one. Gutekunst is loaded with the type of draft capital in 2024 that would allow an immediate detour to a different quarterback location.
The Packers decided to transition to Love but shouldn’t feel boxed in.
The paths forward:
1. Jordan Love is good and the Packers are set at quarterback
2. The 2023 draft provides a developmental option as insurance
3. The Packers aggressively move up for a top 2024 quarterback
Any of the three paths would give the Packers a promising present or future at the position.
The first path fixes the team’s quarterback uncertainty immediately. The second provides more than one option. The third is short-term pain for potential long-term gain.
The worst time to look for a quarterback is when you need one. The Packers, in drafting Love in 2020 and developing him over three years, provided one layer of safeguard. A pick in 2023 could add another layer. And if both fail, the Packers will be in a position to get a franchise-changer at the top of the 2024 draft.
Love is the preferred path in a post-Rodgers world, but the Packers have options. And options are nothing if not valuable during a transition away from a future Hall of Famer at the game’s most important position.
