Gary Spagnuolo usually votes for Republicans, but this year he plans to support Elissa Slotkin, the Democrat seeking a third term in Michigan’s 7th Congressional District.
Steven O’Shaugnessey is moving in the opposite direction. Even though he is a Republican, he voted for Slotkin two years ago. But this year, he cast an absentee ballot for GOP challenger Tom Barrett, 41, an Army veteran and state senator who faces Slotkin in a redrawn district.
Voters who are shifting away from past voting patterns, like Spagnuolo and O’Shaugnessey, could tip the results in the tight congressional race and three others that are competitive in Michigan — the open 3rd, where Democrat Hillary Scholten and Republican John Gibbs are vying; the 8th, where Democratic incumbent Dan Kildee is challenged by Republican Paul Junge; and the open 10th, where Republican John James faces Democrat Carl Marlinga.
Interviews with more than two dozen voters in Michigan congressional districts last week found abortion and inflation rank as top issues. But the conversations also revealed concerns about crime, education, the environment and what voters see as an absence of middle ground in today’s politics.
“I’m typically conservative,” said Spagnuolo, a Howell area resident who served two tours in Vietnam as an explosives expert and sports a “Veteran” license plate on his Jeep. But the product safety consultant said he’s now “leaning more liberal because it sounds like the Republican candidates are a bunch of loons.”
“I kind of would like to see people in there who are more middle-minded than the far right and the far left,” he said. He also said he is “pro-abortion” but favors some restrictions.
O’Shaugnessey, a retired maintenance worker, said he was not a fan of President Joe Biden but appreciated that Slotkin, 46, had served in the CIA before she ran for Congress.
“She did some things I like,” the Lansing man said. “And all of a sudden, she just started rolling with Biden. I said, oh, no man, that’s the end of this for me.” He said his opposition to abortion also influenced his vote against Slotkin this time.
Seat in play
Both parties consider Slotkin’s seat to be in play and have been spending heavily on the race. In a different configuration, Slotkin won in 2020 by 3.6 percentage points even as former President Donald Trump carried the district by 0.8 points. As redrawn, the district takes in the largely Democratic state capital of Lansing and several GOP-leaning counties and backed Biden over Trump by half a percentage point. Inside Elections with Nathan L. Gonzales rates the 7th District contest Tilt Democratic.
Over the seven days ending Monday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, House Democrats’ main political arm, and House Majority PAC, an affiliated super PAC, spent $1.1 million on the 7th District race, according to Daily Kos Elections tracking. That brought the two committees’ spending for the election cycle to almost $5.5 million.
The National Republican Congressional Committee and its affiliate, the Congressional Leadership Fund, have spent even more — $7.1 million this cycle — including $665,000 by CLF the week of Oct. 11-17.
Voters are also divided in the 10th District, a suburban battleground that comprises portions of Macomb and Oakland counties north of Detroit. Trump beat Biden by 1 percentage point here. Republican James, a West Point graduate, Apache helicopter pilot and businessman, is vying with Democrat Marlinga, a former Macomb County prosecutor and judge who was in private practice from 2004 to 2012. James, 41, previously made two unsuccessful runs for the Senate in Michigan. Marlinga, 75, ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. House and state Senate.
Kathie Stefani is a Democrat who favors abortion rights, but she is leaning toward James, who opposes abortion. “I do like John James,” said Stefani, who lives in Clinton Township in Macomb County. Stefani said she has heard “negative things” about Marlinga relating to his representing clients charged with sexual misconduct with children.
The CLF has run ads that say Marlinga “made his living representing sexual predators.” Marlinga has disputed the allegation, saying in a video tweet that his career “was devoted to prosecuting predators, to protecting women and children.”
Democrats are less optimistic about the 10th District race. In an Oct. 4-6 poll conducted by the Glengariff Group for the Detroit News and WDIV-TV, James was leading Marlinga by nearly 8 percentage points. Democratic groups haven’t spent anything in the race this cycle. CLF has spent $1.4 million during the cycle, but just $75,000 in its most recent outlay between Sept. 29 and Oct. 3.
Inside Elections rates the 10th District contest Lean Republican.
Abortion amendment motivation
An abortion proposal on the Michigan ballot is motivating voters from both sides of the issue and drawing notice around the country as a test case. Proposal 3 would establish a “fundamental right to reproductive freedom” but permit the state legislature to “prohibit abortion after fetal viability unless needed to protect a patient’s life or physical or mental health.”
It follows in the wake of a 1931 state law that makes performing an abortion a felony except to save the life of the mother. A state judge has blocked enforcement of the law. In a poll conducted by the Glengariff Group in late September, 61% of likely voters supported the amendment.
Fatima Konare, a master’s degree student at Michigan State University, hasn’t heard much about Slotkin or Barrett but plans to vote yes on the abortion amendment. She said she also will vote for incumbent Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who has made abortion rights prominent in her campaign. Polls show Whitmer ahead of GOP rival Tudor Dixon, but with the gap narrowing to 8 points in the polling average maintained by FiveThirtyEight.com.
“I believe I should have access to any medical care that I need, especially as a Black woman who has been denied medical care in general, and the history of Black people in America — we’ve been denied medical care,” said Konare, of Lansing.
The ballot proposal also is drawing out abortion opponents such as Patricia Wozniak, a massage therapist who lives near Howell. “It’s too extreme,” she said. Wozniak said the amendment would allow abortion any time during a pregnancy, “even at the point of birth. That’s not right. That’s a human being.” Wozniak said she will vote for Barrett, who opposes abortion, over Slotkin, who supports abortion rights.
Critics say the physical and mental health exceptions would allow for an abortion at any stage of pregnancy. Some charge it might allow minors to get sterilized without permission from their parents. Legal experts are unsure what effect the amendment might have on other state laws, such as the requirement for a minor to get a parent’s consent before having an abortion.
Crime, inflation also factors
While they were divided on abortion, just about every voter complained about inflation. But those who lean Democratic rarely blamed it on policies pursued by Biden or the Democrats who control Congress.
Thomas Barnes, who runs a youth mentoring program in Mount Clemens, said the trillions of dollars in aid provided by the federal government during the pandemic caused prices to rise, but he believes the spending was justified. Barnes plans to vote for Marlinga, who he said “has been here helping our community for the past 30 years.”
Dale Pfeifer, of Durand, said he’s a registered Republican “but I can’t vote for anybody that would support Trump.” He said he will probably vote against Barrett because “he’s likely to be a Trump supporter whether he says it or not.” Pfeifer said he is leaning toward voting for Slotkin.
Steve Brombach, a CPA who describes himself as an independent, said local crime is his biggest concern and that he plans to vote for James. “I have noticed more shootings that never used to happen 10 years ago” in Eastpointe, where he lives, he said. Crime hasn’t touched him personally, he added.
