The confusion among the Veerashiava-Lingayats, especially in Kittur Karnataka region, following the exits of Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi weeks before the elections, is being seen as the precipitating factor for the community’s perceived shift to Congress from BJP.
For the Congress, this election results has been the best since 1989 when it had 45 Veerashaiva-Lingayat legislators in its landslide victory. This time, as many as 34 Veerashaiva-Lingayats have won on Congress ticket. Even when the Congress capitalised on the BJP-KJP split in 2013 to form the government, it had 26 Veershaiva-Lingayats in its ranks. In 2018, following its support to a separate Lingayat movement, the number of Veerashaiva-Lingayats elected on the party ticket had come down to 16.
Miscalculations galore
When the treatment meted out to former Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa, as he was asked to step down in 2021 was still fresh in the memory, the BJP’s indifference in the handling of the Lingayat leaders’ exit is believed to have riled the community and the religious institutions, alienating them further from the BJP. The anger it is believed to have spread among the community members across region.
Sub-sect factors
Mr. Savadi’s exit, in particular, affected the BJP across a larger geographical area due to the spread of the Ganiga sub-sect of the Lingayats. The Panchamsali ire over the reservation issue was stark as more than a year-long agitation did not yield any big benefit for the community while the Banajiga sub sect was smarting under the “insult” meted out to its leader Mr. Shettar.
Panchamsalis - the numerically larger sub sect - had backed the BJP strongly in the previous elections. Incidentally, all the three communities are in big number in Belagavi, Bagalkot, Vijayapura, Haveri and Dharwad districts in the Kittur Karnataka region. Interestingly, though Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai belongs to the Sadar sub sect, which is among the politically stronger sub castes, the BJP failed to perform well in Central Karnataka region where the Sadar population is high.
The ire seems to have helped the Congress in Kittur and Central Karnataka regions where it gained 26 seats at the cost of BJP while the gain in Kalyana Karnataka was 10 seats at the cost of BJP. The saffron party that had 38 Veerashaiava-Lingayat legislators in 2018, is now down to 18. In South Karnataka where Lingayats are in good numbers in several constituencies across the Vokkaliga dominated region, their shift to Congress is believed to have affected the fortunes of the Janata Dal (Secular).
