FIRST Minister Nicola Sturgeon has been the face of the pro-independence movement and at the forefront of Scottish politics for almost a decade.
It’s somewhat hard to imagine anyone else squaring up to Douglas Ross and Anas Sarwar in Holyrood during FMQs, and batting away the Unionist attack lines.
But, while the race for her successor has already begun, The National has pulled together four simple graphs setting out the impact that Sturgeon has had on Scottish political life, the Yes movement, and her party.
How popular did the SNP become under Nicola Sturgeon?
Sturgeon took the SNP to an astounding victory at the 2015 General Election, returning 50% of the vote share at the ballot box. While this would dip at the next Scottish Parliament election in 2016 through to the European Parliament elections in 2019, Sturgeon pushed the party back on top following Brexit by aligning the party with the vision of an independent Scotland as a member of the European Union.
Following Brexit in 2019, the SNP vote share leaped back up to 47.7% at the Scottish Parliament election in 2021.
Meanwhile, the vote share for the Scottish Tories and Scottish Labour languished far behind.
How popular is Nicola Sturgeon in her own constituency?
Sturgeon has held the seat for Glasgow South since its creation in 2011, and won it for the first time with over 50% of the vote. At the next election, she would see her vote share increase to a whopping 61.4%. While this dropped at the 2021 election, it was only by 1.2%, showing she was evidently still popular in the local community.
Sturgeon thanked her constituents during her resignation speech for supporting her “through thick and thin”, adding: “I look forward to continuing to serve my constituency to the best of my ability.”
How popular is Nicola Sturgeon compared to other party leaders?
Despite a lot of fuss being made about Nicola Sturgeon’s popularity rating dropping in recent weeks - she was still doing much better in the eyes of the public than any of her counterparts.
An Ipsos poll from just over two weeks ago showed 43% of voters saw her favourably, compared to the same number who saw her unfavourably.
Labour leader Keir Starmer, the second most popular party leader, only received a 33% favourability rating, with Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar next with 28%.
What about her impact on support for Scottish independence?
Sturgeon has been the face of the Yes campaign following the independence referendum in 2014 and has become synonymous with the movement.
Polls for independence are unpredictable and frequently jump up and down with highs for Yes or highs for No. However, during Sturgeon’s time as First Minister she saw Yes support hit 55% in November 2021, 59% in May 2022, and 56% in December 2022 following the Supreme Court ruling.
While independence support appeared to drop, before bouncing back to 54% in January this year, the most recent poll by Lord Ashcroft at the beginning of February saw No take the lead with 56% support.
Ashcroft’s poll also found that two-thirds of voters did not support Sturgeon’s plan for a de facto referendum at the next General Election, a route the First Minister suggested would be her preference at a press conference following the Supreme Court ruling.
Following her resignation on Wednesday, Sturgeon said the way forward will be decided by her successor and the party.
She said: “I have always been clear that decision must be taken by the SNP collectively, not by me alone, but I know my party well enough to understand that my view as leader would carry enormous, probably decisive, weight when our conference meets next month.
“And I cannot in good conscience ask the party to choose an option based on my judgment whilst not being convinced that I would be there as leader to see it through.
“By making my decision clear now I free the SNP to choose the path it believes to be the right one without worrying about the perceived implications for my leadership.”
