Imran Khan is treading on the path of typical populism.
In Pakistan, amidst a brewing polycrisis, the country's power centres -- the civil bureaucracy, military, businessmen and religious leaders -- seem to be at a loss as to how to navigate this tumultuous terrain.
There appears to be a dearth of viable solutions or meaningful strategies to steer the nation towards a better path. With each passing day, this polycrisis -- an amalgam of political, financial, social, and institutional decay -- is becoming more intricate.
What initially started off as a no-confidence motion against the then-Prime Minister Khan in March 2022, and escalated to a violent agitation, has now polarised every stratum of Pakistani society. These divisions are not limited to the political arena alone, as they have permeated into sensitive institutions such as the judiciary and the civil bureaucracy. The current ruling PDM (Pakistan Democratic Movement) coalition government was quite confident that, once out of power, Mr Khan would not be able to generate any effective agitation. This confidence was based on the belief that Mr Khan's debauched governance had alienated the public to such an extent that he would not be able to rally support in his favour. But, contrary to the expectations of his detractors, Mr Khan has been steering a phenomenon protest campaign and his popularity graph is continuously on the rise.
Mr Khan and his Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) have effectively introduced this new concept of social media campaign to promote the party image and specifically the personal image-building of Mr Khan himself. The unique feature of the current political imbroglio is the extremely effective utilisation of social media by Mr Khan's PTI to transform his brand image.
There was nothing that he could claim as a tangible and effective "achievement" to motivate his supporters. However, to the utter surprise of all the stakeholders, including Mr Khan himself, the PTI has suddenly emerged as a significantly popular political force in Pakistan. In the last one year, Mr Khan has utilised every card in the bag -- patriotism, religion, and self-pity -- to charge up the public against the current government and the establishment.
Mr Khan shrewdly used a highly efficacious social media campaign to create anti-American sentiments to divert attention from his poor performance as prime minister. The cult-like behaviour of his supporters is not a new phenomenon in the political history of Pakistan, but the speed with which this cult-like behaviour has become contagious among his supporters in the middle and upper middle class reflects the success of his social media team managers.
Till the time he assumed power in 2018, Mr Khan used to brag about his conviction in civilian supremacy as the main plank of his political philosophy. In the pre-2018 election period, he frequently swaggered about his abhorrence for taking dictates from the military establishment. But the 2018 election, which was manoeuvred by the power brokers to install him as the prime minister, was the first big dent to his previously "untested political conviction" in civilian supremacy. The person who always bitterly censured his political opponents as the product of the military establishment was himself claiming to be the "mega project" of the establishment.
Throughout his stint as the prime minister, Mr Khan never directly or indirectly broached the issue of civilian supremacy. It was only after the no-confidence vote against him in March that he, for the first time, incited the sitting army chief to abandon his "new-found neutrality" in favour of himself. As per his thesis, the military establishment should not be neutral, and it should keep supporting the PTI and Mr Khan.
The manner in which Mr Khan has tried to malign former army chief General Bajwa, who was his chief patron throughout his premiership and even reportedly tried to salvage him during the no-confidence vote, has sent a message across the board that Mr Khan is not a "reliable bet". The fact is that Mr Khan, after exhausting all his energy -- and party funds -- on the year-long protest campaign, is still going home empty-handed as far as his primary objectives are concerned: He wasn't successful in getting the pick he favoured appointed as the new army chief, and he has not been able to force the PDM government to call early elections. The fact of the matter is, Mr Khan, despite having massive public support, is facing a different kind of dilemma. There is a divided judiciary, divided bureaucracy, indifferent military establishment, a disoriented ruling alliance and a clueless Imran Khan.
Being a typical populist leader, Imran Khan is continuously making adjustments to his narrative so as to keep his target audience intact. But, in doing so, he is also fast losing the credibility as a "principled leader".
Nonetheless, he is desperate to regain the slot of prime minister -- though age is not on his side, as he has already crossed 70 -- and is perhaps using every trick of the trade to pressure all stakeholders to announce an early election, which he believes that he can win very easily. But, in engaging in these efforts, he has deeply polarised the country, and it will take decades to heal.
Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance contributor based in Karachi, Pakistan.
