Even if Tadej Pogačar didn't have the current World Champion's jersey on his back at Il Lombardia's startline on Saturday morning, there could be no doubt who is the standout favourite for this year's edition of the Race of the Falling Leaves.
It's not just that in every race the Slovenian has started this season barring - perhaps - Milan-San Remo, Pogačar has automatically, and deservedly, enjoyed the status of top contender. Nor yet that after his latest major exploit in the World Championships, his stunning victory in the Giro dell'Emilia shows a startlingly impressive consistency of form. Yet another factor in the 26-year-old's favour in the final Monument of 2024 is that we are also talking about the winner of the last three editions of Il Lombardia.
Yet tempting as it may be to see this year's 119th Il Lombardia as a foregone conclusion or one-horse race, in reality Il Lombardia retains plenty of potential to throw up surprises and ambushes. For one thing, after their categorical defeat at the Worlds, rivals of the calibre of Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep) will surely be itching to get a chance to give the new rainbow jersey a run for their money. Secondly, the 4,800 metres of vertical climbing on Lombardia's 252-kilometre course and increasingly unpredictable autumn weather in northern Europe - the torrential rains that forced the cancellation of Tre Valli Varesine being the most recent example - push the dial back towards a more open race. Thirdly, given Pogačar's superiority, riders are increasingly realising that racing conservatively is not an option. If you want to win, you have to try to beat him at his own game.
Last but not least, for all the likelihood of Pogačar rounding off his year just as he began it in Italy at Strade Bianche eight months ago - with a spectacular win - is high, at Il Lombardia Pogačar is facing his biggest test of strength to date as the newly crowned rainbow jersey.
With all these factors in mind, Cyclingnews casts a glance over some of the top riders to watch on Saturday.
Tadej Pogacar (UAE Team Emirates)
Three years after recently crowned World Champion Julian Alaphilippe finished sixth in Il Lombardia in 2021, a rider in a rainbow jersey will be back at the start-line of the Race of the Falling Leaves on Saturday. But rarely, if ever, has there been such a high level of expectation and anticipation about their presence.
The question of Pogačar's post-World's form is hardly up for discussion, either. In the Giro dell'Emilia he claimed a stunning solo victory, removing any pressure he might have felt to take a first victory in the rainbow jersey at Il Lombardia, while simultaneously ensuring his confidence remains sky-high.
Last year, Pogačar came into Il Lombardia with a track record of aggressive racing in the autumn, but he hadn't been able to yet been able to overwhelm his rivals as he did back in the Spring and Jumbo-Visma's dominance had been the story of the season. But that didn't stop him claiming a third Lombardia with a trademark long-distance attack, and this time round, the odds of him pushing his 100% Il Lombardia success rate out a little further are even higher.
As ever with Pogačar at this point in his career, much of what is at stake is his place in the history books. In the case of Il Lombardia, a fourth victory would put Pogačar just one short of Fausto Coppi's all-time record of five, and place him on a level footing with second-placed Alfredo Binda. But be it one win or four, the odds of Lombardia being a mere cameo are minimal. As all his rivals know only too well, Pogačar doesn't 'do' cameos.
Remco Evenepoel (Soudal-QuickStep)
To say that Remco Evenepoel's relationship with Il Lombardia has been a difficult one is something of an understatement. In 2020, his Monument professional debut ended disastrously when the Belgian span off the road on the ultra-technical descent of Colma il Sormano - back on the race route for the first time, but tackled in the opposite direction to four years ago - suffering a broken pelvis. In 2021, in a tough return on a psychological front, he suffered from 'bad legs' mid-race and finished 19th. Then in 2023, just a few hours after days of speculation about the Jumbo-Visma - QuickStep merger had finally ended, Evenepoel crashed heavily in the opening kilometres. (To his immense credit, despite all these adverse circumstances and pre-race stress, he still finished ninth.)
Fast forward another 12 months and Evenepoel would surely like to round off his season just as he began it way back in February in the Figueira Champions Classic, with a stunning solo victory. His two triumphs in cycling's other hilly Monument, Liège-Bastogne-Liege in 2022 and 2023, as well as his impressive third place in the Tour de France this summer, only add to the sensation that on paper, Il Lombardia is a race that is well within his grasp.
However, Evenepoel and the Belgian squad were unable to get on terms with Pogačar at the World Championships. Then after quitting the Giro dell'Emilia with an eye problem, and an uneven result in the Coppa Bernocchi on Monday, even his team say, there are plenty of question marks about his current form. It has been a magical year for Evenepoel and he is sure to be feeling motivated to take on Pogačar. But when it comes to Il Lombardia this year, clearcut predictions are hard to make.
Simon Yates (Jayco-AIUIa)
It's not quite the end of a personal era for Simon Yates at Il Lombardia this year - but almost. Although he'll go on racing through to the Japan Cup, the 2024 Race of the Falling Leaves will be the last chance to see the 11-year-pro in action on European roads with his current team, Jayco-AIUIa, prior to heading to Visma-Lease a Bike next season.
If Yates is planning to end his Monument racing for Jayco on a high note, the omens are extremely good. Fifth in the Giro dell'Emilia last week wasn't quite as impressive as his third place in the same event in 2023. But he's clearly in good shape, and having taken a career-best fifth in Il Lombardia last October, there's every chance Yates'll be back in the thick of it on Saturday - prior to jetting off to the Far East for Japan and his final Jayco-AIUIa race of all...
Enric Mas (Movistar)
Time and again this autumn, it's become evident that since the summer, something has 'clicked' with Enric Mas. A much more conservative racer has morphed into a rider who is now willing to throw caution to the wind. And his punchier, more aggressive style of racing, has made for a far more dangerous contender across the board.
Mas' new approach has yet to reap him rewards in terms of a win, with his standout result to date being third overall in the Vuelta a España alongside several runners-up spots behind overall champion, Primoz Roglic. But his eighth places in Emilia and the World Championship confirm that he has yet to take his foot off the accelerator in the closing days of the season.
Furthermore, memories of Mas second place in Il Lombardia in 2022, his one Monument top three to date, may yet inspire the man from Mallorca to try to clinch Spain's first victory in the Italian Classic since 'Purito' Rodríguez back in 2013.
Bauke Mollema (Lidl-Trek)
Five long years have passed since Bauke Mollema swept the field in Il Lombardia with a stunning 20-kilometre solo to gain the biggest victory of his victory. But before writing off the Dutch veteran too quickly, his recent performance at the World Championships would suggest the 37-year-old is going through something of a second youth.
One of the most active members of the front group chasing lone winner Pogačar and claiming twelfth despite being constrained by team duties in support of Mathieu van der Poel, Mollema could well be back in the thick of the action on Saturday. His protected status is likely to be further elevated as teammate and leading allrounder Mattias Skjelmose recently announced he would have to end his season early with back pain. At the very least, Mollema will be a top team worker for Mattia Bagioli, second last year in Il Lombardia. But the top names like Pogačar and Evenepoel know, too, that the Dutchman is a rider they can ill afford to let out of their sight.
Tom Pidcock (Ineos Grenadiers)
For those who don't follow Tom Pidcock closely, it may come as something of a surprise to learn that a big hitter in the Classics and gifted climber has raced all the other Monuments, but never - until this Saturday - Il Lombardia.
The reasons to count Pidcock into the running despite his lack of Lombardia experience are almost too obvious to mention. His excellent track record in the Ardennes Classics, including a victory in Amstel Gold Race and second last year in Liège-Bastogne-Liège, are one pointer in his favour. So, too, is the second place in the Giro dell'Emilia last Saturday, seemingly appearing out of nowhere in the teeming rain at the summit of the San Luca to stand next to Tadej Pogačar on the winner's podium. Then there are his repeatedly tried-and-tested skills on punchy ascents like the San Fermo della Battaglia and his turn of speed in small group sprints like the one which decided Amstel this spring.
Beating Pogačar was not possible for Pidcock on the climbs of Liège in 2023 and it will - as is true for all the Slovenian's rivals this Saturday - be a major ask in the Grand Monument which Pogačar has made his own since 2021. However, the challenge of trying to beard the UAE Team Emirates in his den is exactly the kind of 'Mission Impossible' that Pidcock tends to relish. As the cliché so aptly puts it, watch this space.
Matteo Jorgenson (Visma-Lease a Bike)
Il Lombardia is the last race of what has proved to be a breakthrough season for Matteo Jorgenson after signing for Visma-Lease a Bike last winter. His victories in Paris-Nice and Dwars door Vlaanderen this spring have been followed up with sterling team support work in the Tour de France, and his top ten finish in the Olympic Road Race was a timely reminder that his progress in multi-day events has not put any kind of a damper on his ability in Classics.
In terms of Il Lombardia, he's relatively inexperienced, with just one participation to date, last year when he took 23rd. But while Visma-Lease a Bike have plenty of dark horses on Saturday, ranging from last weekend's Coppa Bernocchi long-distance breakaway Bart Lemmen and experienced Netherlands duo Stephen Kruijswijk and Wilco Kelderman, Jorgenson's proven versatility in all kinds of Classics terrain make him a key rider to watch.
Romain Bardet (Team dsm-firmenich-PostNL)
Riding his ninth and last ever Il Lombardia this Saturday, Romain Bardet (Team dsm-firmenich-PostNL) has been a consistent goalpost hitter at the Italian Monument. His best performance fourth was way back in 2016 but eighth, ninth and eleventh in the last three editions suggest he has never lost sight of how to race well in the Race of the Falling Leaves.
To get inside the circle of podium finishers is another step up, of course. But that's something Bardet has managed in cycling's other hilly Monument, Liège-Bastogne-Liège on two occasions, most recently this year behind a certain Tadej Pogačar. And after his impressive ride at the World Championships, claiming tenth, it could be that 2024 is when he cracks the Il Lombardia top spots as well. It'd certainly be a fine way to bow out from the race, too.
Adam Yates (UAE Team Emirates)
Back in the 2023 Tour de France, when Tadej Pogačar was forced to tackle the race with the still notable effects of a wrist injury, teammate Adam Yates was presented at the start as co-leader, and he went on to finish third overall. And while it would be hard to imagine any kind of UAE team bus meeting on Saturday morning that doesn't involve Tadej Pogačar going on a long-range attack, it's surely not out of the question that Adam Yates enjoys protected status as a plan 'B', at the very least.
Yates has enjoyed a second stellar season in 2024, with victories in the Tour de Suisse overall and in a stage of the Vuelta a España on a personal front, along with helping Pogačar to his third Tour de France triumph and will likely want to round it out on as good a note as possible. With eight participations in Il Lombardia - his most of any Monument - Yates has an excellent track record in the Italian Classic, taking third in 2021 and sixth last year. His only DNF was in 2014, his first-ever participation. And after placing twelfth in the Giro dell'Emilia, his key role may well be that of providing Pogačar with as much support as possible. But it's not totally outside the realms of the impossible that he is used as a foil for the Slovenian's later attacks too - and then who knows what could happen?
Domenico Pozzovivo (VF Group-CSF-Faizanè)
When Italian Domenico Pozzovivo rolls down to the startline in Bergamo's Piazza Giacomo Matteotti on Saturday morning, it won't be with the goal of winning and perhaps not even of finishing. But for the 41-year-old veteran and for Italian cycling, Pozzovivo's 16th Lombardia participation - which makes him the joint record-holder in the current peloton for Lombardia starts along with Bauke Mollema (Lidl-Trek) - and last race of his career will be a very special moment nonetheless.
Back in 2005 as a neo-pro, Pozzovivo rode his first Lombardia with Italian ProTeam Ceramica Panaria-Navigare, finishing 49th. So it could hardly be more appropriate that 19 years later he will hang up his wheels and do his last Il Lombardia racing with VF Group-CSF-Faizanè, a squad that - despite multiple mutations and sponsor changes - is the continuation of that same team.
Well-known as a breakaway specialist, Pozzovivo's long and chequered career included a dramatic hill-top stage win in the Giro d'Italia - in which he participated 18 times - in 2012 at Lago Laceno near his home region of Basilicata. He took stage victories in the Tour de Suisse and Volta a Catalunya as well as two top ten finishes in Il Lombardia and his career came within a whisker of ending on several occasions as a result of injuries and resulting struggles to find teams for the following season. Finally, though, he'll be leaving the sport at Il Lombardia 2024 - and on his own terms.
