Afternoon summary
Labour has been urged to clarify its position on collective punishment in the context of Israel’s response to the 7 October Hamas massacre of Israeli citizens, in a letter to Keir Starmer signed by 39 academics. The Labour party has been approached for a response. (See 3.03pm.)
Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, has concluded his party conference with a speech announcing a council tax freeze for next year. In a wide-ranging address, he also said he had “no idea” what Keir Starmer stood for, urged the SNP to make the case for independence by explaining its benefits, and not by focusing on the process, and said what was happening in Gaza was collective punishment. See 4.48pm for a full summary.
The prime minister and the chair of the Conservative party have been accused of circulating false information about Labour’s immigration plans, with a charity warning this could mislead voters in the next general election.
Peter Bone has been stripped of the Conservative party whip after the MP was found to have bullied and harassed a member of staff, and exposed his bare genitals to their face.
Updated
Schools minister Nick Gibb tells MPs he knew of £370m school funding blunder four weeks before it was made public
Nick Gibb, the schools minister, told MPs that the government knew about the £370m black hole in England’s schools budget at least four weeks before it was made public – but said it would be “irresponsible” to restore the promised funding.
Responding to a call by Labour to explain the accounting blunder that overstated how much schools would receive next year, Gibb said Department for Education’s officials had taken responsibility for the error, and added:
What would be irresponsible would be to increase funding for schools by 0.62% solely as a result of an error by officials.
After he was informed by officials in mid-September, Gibb told MPs that his instinct was to rectify the error “as quickly as possible”, with the announcement of the error only published four weeks later alongside the recalculated national funding formula.
In July Gibb had told parliament that mainstream school funding would rise by 2.7% a pupil between 2023-24 and 2024-25. But the revised DfE figures issued on 6 October put the rise at just 1.9% – around £50 less per pupil. An average secondary school will receive around £57,000 less than anticipated.
School leaders in England have complained that they had already been drawing up their budgets for the 2024-25 academic year, saying they will now have to start again in making calculations over hiring staff and spending on trips and activities.
Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, said:
Since this house returned after the summer recess, ministers have been forced to come here twice. First to explain how his government left school buildings in such a parlous state that many are now at risk of collapse. And now to explain that the Conservatives are taking £370m out of schools budget allocations for next year. It is shambolic. It is chaotic, and our children deserve a lot better.
Gibb retorted that the total schools budget was unchanged, so that no money was being taken away.
Andrew Gwynne, the Labour MP for Denton and Reddish, told Gibb:
The minister’s argument, in a nutshell, is that you didn’t have the money so you’ve not lost it. But the point is that local authorities received a notional funding allocation and were beginning to plan based on the figure that was given by the government.
To places like Stockport, Tameside and Manchester, these are not insubstantial figures that are going to be withdrawn from those areas. So can I politely say to the minister: his argument is incoherent, I’ll grade him D-minus, and his maths is appalling.
Daisy Cooper, the Lib Dem deputy leader, said:
The Department of Education has been plagued by a litany of failures for far too long. It’s had a devastating impact on children, their parents and on teachers. We had the mutant algorithm. We’ve had the Raac roofs, we’ve got an absolute crisis in our Send [special educational needs and disabilities] system, and now this bit of good old-fashioned incompetence.
Updated
Summary of main points from Humza Yousaf's SNP conference speech
Here is a summary of the main lines from Humza Yousaf’s speech to the SNP’s conference.
Yousaf said he had “no idea” what Keir Starmer, the Labour leader, stood for. He said:
And when it comes to values, I’ve got absolutely no idea what Keir Starmer stands for.
The closer he gets to Downing Street, the further he retreats from his principles.
Once upon a time, he agreed with the SNP that it was abhorrent to force women who had been raped to provide proof before they could access child benefits.
But, now Labour say they plan to apply Tory policies like the rape clause – in their words – “more fairly”.
He was particularly critical of Starmer’s stance on Brexit.
On the economy, Keir Starmer says he wants growth, growth, growth.
There’s a huge problem with that.
Because he also supports Brexit, Brexit, Brexit.
Brexit can’t be made to work for Scotland.
It has been an unmitigated disaster.
Yousaf said the SNP had to make the case for independence by stressing its benefits, the why not the how? He explained:
Around half of our fellow Scots already support independence.
I have no doubt that we can turn that half into a sustained majority.
And we will do so when we concentrate not on the how – but on the why.
At the next election, page 1 line 1 of our manifesto will say ‘vote SNP for Scotland to become an independent country’.
And the reason that will be page 1, line 1 of our next manifesto is because independence is about building a better Scotland.
Independence is not simply an end in itself.
It is inextricably linked to the cost of living crisis.
It’s about raising living standards.
It’s about protecting our NHS.
He said by 2026 (the date of the next Scottish parliamentary elections) he wanted the Scottish government to be issuing bonds to raise money for investment. He said:
I can confirm that by the end of this parliament the SNP government will – subject of course to due diligence and market testing - go directly to the international bond market for the first time in our own right.
To fund vital infrastructure like affordable housing projects, we will issue Scotland’s first ever bond.
This will bring Scotland to the attention of investors across the world.
And it will raise our profile as a place where investment returns can be made.
He announced that council tax in Scotland will be frozen next year. (See 4.10am.)
He announced an extra £300m for the NHS in Scotland to cut waiting lists. (See 9.43am.)
He said the Scottish government would be investing up to £500m over five years to anchor “a new offshore wind supply chain” in Scotland. He also announed £400,000 to rejuvenate Union Street in Aberdeen, which he described as “the silver mile of Scotland’s energy capital”.
He said the Scottish government would spend £500,000 on a pilot offering support for women who need financial help to leave an abusive partner. Explaining it, he said:
It’s called the Fund to Leave. It will be delivered by Women’s Aid groups in the five councils areas with the highest numbers of women presenting as homeless due to domestic abuse.
Women will receive up to £1,000 to help them pay for the essentials that they and their children need.
He said the Scottish government would double investment in arts and culture over the next five years, at a cost of £100m.
He described what was happening in Gaza as “collective punishment” that could “never be justified”. (See 3.32pm.)
He said Scotland would be the first place to provide sanctuary if the UK government set up a refugee scheme for the people of Gaza, as he said it should. (See 3.40pm.)
He said Suella Braverman’s stance on refugees reinforced the case for Scottish independence. He explained:
At the Tory conference, the UK home secretary warned about what she described as a ‘hurricane’ of migrants coming to the UK, and other western countries.
When I hear that dog-whistle language it makes me shudder.
It makes me resolve to work even harder for independence – so that Scotland’s immigration policies are decided here in Scotland.
Never ever again by extremist Westminster politicians.
Not only is the anti-migrant rhetoric morally wrong, it is also bad for our economy.
Our migration policy will be founded on core principles: welcoming, internationalist and compassionate.
He paid tribute to his predecessor, Nicola Sturgon. He said:
We will never forget that in the toughest of times our country faced, Nicola was the calmest of voices and the coolest of heads.
Updated
These are from my colleage Peter Walker, who has been watching the whole of the Neil Ferguson evidence to the Covid inquiry.
Much of Hugo Keith’s questioning of Prof Neil Ferguson so far can be arguably summarised as: ‘Why did you, as a scientist, act so much as a scientist and less as a politician or civil servant?’
Much of Hugo Keith's questioning of Prof Neil Ferguson so far can be arguably summarised as, 'Why did you, as a scientist, act so much as a scientist and less as a politician or civil servant?'
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) October 17, 2023
Asked by Keith why he did not do more to warn publicly about the likely scale of the pandemic, Prof Ferguson gently points out that on 12 Feb he went on Today to say that without government action, 80% of the UK population could catch Covid, and 1% of these could die.
Asked by Keith why he did not do more to warn publicly about the likely scale of the pandemic, Prof Ferguson gently points out that on 12 Feb went on Today to say that without government action, 80% of the UK population could catch Covid, and 1% of these could die.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) October 17, 2023
Prof Ferguson says a lack of connection between Sage/science end of things and government policy “was a hindrance” in Covid planning. He says there was no indication to him about what the government’s objectives or red lines were. He only heard snippets “at the margins” of Sage.
Prof Ferguson says a lack of connection between Sage/science end of things and government policy “was a hindrance" in Covid planning. He says there was no indication to him about what the government's objectives or red lines were. He only heard snippets "at the margins" of Sage.
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) October 17, 2023
Ferguson says this became so difficult and he became so worried about the “slight air of unreality” that he started privately saying to govt representatives at meetings in early 2020: ‘Do you know what this is going to be like?’
Ferguson says this became so difficult and he became so worried about the "slight air of unreality" that he started privately saying to govt representatives at meetings in early 2020, 'Do you know what this is going to be like?'
— Peter Walker (@peterwalker99) October 17, 2023
Updated
Yousaf says Scottish government will freeze council tax next year
Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, used his speech to the SNP conference to announce that he is freezing council tax in Scotland. As PA Media reports, the Scottish government had opened a consultation which could see council tax on the highest bands increased by between 7.5% and 22.5%. But Yousaf told the conference.
We have consulted on what level the council tax should be next year. And conference, we have reached our decision.
I can announce to the people of Scotland that, next year, your council tax will be frozen. That’s the SNP delivering for people when they need it the most.
Yousaf has just finished. I will post highlights from his speech soon.
Updated
Tory MP Peter Bone has party whip withdrawn after report recommending six-week suspension
The Conservative MP Peter Bone has had the whip withdrawn by his party following the publication of a report from the independent expert panel yesterday saying he should be suspended from the Commons for six weeks for bullying and sexual misconduct.
A spokesperson for the chief whip, Simon Hart, said: “Following a report by the independent expert panel, the chief whip has removed the Conservative whip from Peter Bone MP.”
With the whip withdrawn, Bone would not be able to stand as a Conservative candidate at the next election. However, Bone’s parliamentary career may end a lot sooner than that. The six-week suspension is certain to be agreed by the Commons, and after that his constituents will be able to trigger a recall election by getting 10% of voters to sign a petition calling for one.
An MP subject to the recall process can stand again for their party, as the Tory Chris Davies did in Brecon and Radnorshire (where he lost).
But with the whip suspended from Bone, that would not be an option for him.
Updated
Yousaf says Scotland would be first to offer sanctuary if UK sets up refugee scheme for people from Gaza
Yousaf told the SNP conference that he wants the international community to commit to “a worldwide refugee programme for the people of Gaza”.
And he said that the UK should set up its own refugee scheme for people in Gaza who want to leave. Scotland would be the first place to offer sanctuary, he said.
I am calling on the UK government to take two urgent steps.
Firstly, they should immediately begin work on the creation of a refugee resettlement scheme for those in Gaza who want to, and are able to, leave.
And when they do so, Scotland is willing to be the first country in the UK to offer safety and sanctuary to those caught up in these terrible attacks.
Updated
Humza Yousaf tells SNP conference what is happening in Gaza is 'collective punishment, and can never be justified'
Yousaf condemns the Hamas attack on Israelis, and the way Palestinians in Gaza are being treated now.
What we are witnessing in the Middle East is truly heart-breaking.
Imagine waking up on a Saturday morning, during one of your holy festivals – as families across Israel did last week - to find that your loved ones had been murdered or kidnapped by Hamas terrorists.
It is beyond words, and to be condemned in the strongest possible manner.
Or imagine living in the Gaza strip under constant bombardment right now.
No food, no water, no power.
Friends,
Tragically, we don’t have to imagine.
This is the reality for Israeli and Palestinian families alike.
Yousaf calls for the release of Israeli hostages, and the lifting of the siege of Gaza. He says what is happening there amounts to “collective punishment, and can never be justified”.
The hostages must be released.
And a humanitarian corridor must be opened, vital supplies let in, and Gazans who want to leave must be allowed to leave.
The blockade of Gaza must end.
Conference, we are absolutely clear that the life of a Palestinian is equal to the life of an Israeli.
It is right for the world to condemn the actions of Hamas – unequivocally.
But any form of collective punishment, as we are seeing in Gaza, can never be justified.
Updated
At the SNP conference in Aberdeen Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, is just starting his keynote speech.
He starts with a reference to family.
This is a party I consider my home, full of people I see as my extended family.
I have never felt the love, kindness and solidarity of the SNP family as much as I have over the last 10 days.
So on my behalf, and on behalf of Nadia, my girls and our family in Gaza, from the bottom of my heart, let me say thank you.
Updated
Academics challenge Starmer to accept Israel's siege of Gaza is against international law
Labour has been urged to clarify its position on collective punishment in the context of Israel’s response to the 7 October Hamas massacre of Israeli citizens, in a letter to Keir Starmer signed by 39 academics.
The signatories, including experts in international law, international humanitarian law, international criminal law and related disciplines say that comments by Starmer, Emily Thornberry and David Lammy have provided tacit approval of the war crime of collective punishment.
Starmer attracted criticism from the Labour Muslim Network and the UN special rapporteur on the occupied Palestinian authorities, among others, when, asked in an interview with LBC about Israel cutting off water and electricity, he said “Israel does have that right” while adding that “obviously everything should be done within international law”. Several Muslim Labour councillors have resigned in response to Starmer’s comments.
On Sunday, the Labour leader issued a statement calling on on “all parties to act in line with international law, including allowing humanitarian access of food, water, electricity and medicines to Gaza”. But the letter says the latter statement “does nothing to rescind your tacit approval of Israel’s collective punishment of the population of Gaza”.
It states:
The right to self-defence is not unqualified, it is bound by longstanding laws that form one of the pillars of a rules-based international order. International humanitarian law, including the fourth Geneva Convention and additional protocols, prohibits collective punishment in all circumstances. The imposition of collective punishment can be considered a war crime under customary international law. The cutting off of food, water and electricity to the population of Gaza is a clear case of collective punishment.
Indiscriminate bombing of populated areas, the use of white phosphorus, as documented by Human Rights Watch on 12 October, and the forced transfer of a population are incompatible with international humanitarian law. The atrocities committed by Hamas on 7 October and its slaughter of Israeli citizens do not abrogate international humanitarian law; on the contrary, these laws were designed for precisely these circumstances.
We request that you immediately issue a public and detailed clarification of Labour’s legal position on collective punishment and on the forcible transfer of civilians. We request that you confirm that you and your party oppose the commission of war crimes, wherever and whenever they may occur.
There is a copy of the letter here. Michelle Farrell, a professor of international law at Liverpool University and one of the signatories, has posted it on X.
"We request that you immediately issue a public and detailed clarification of Labour’s legal position on collective punishment and on the forcible transfer of civilians." Our letter to @Keir_Starmer @UKLabour @EmilyThornberry @DavidLammy sent today. pic.twitter.com/OeHyxNtHJj
— Michelle Farrell (@mnifhearail) October 17, 2023
Yesterday the International Centre of Justice for Palestinians (ICJP) issued Starmer, Thornberry and Lammy with notices of intention to prosecute “for their role in aiding and abetting Israel’s perpetration of war crimes”.
🚨UPDATE🚨
— ICJP (@ICJPalestine) October 16, 2023
ICJP has now issued the Labour Leadership with a notice of intention to prosecute any UK politician for their complicity in war crimes in Gaza.
The announcement comes after Saturday's notice to @RishiSunak of the UK government's complicity in Israeli war crimes. pic.twitter.com/UZgbMoM6za
Updated
Neil Ferguson says he was always uncomfortable with the label “reasonable worst case scenario” for what might happen if the virus were allowed to spread. He says he did not like the term because it made that outcome sound unlikely, when in his view is was the likely outcome if nothing were to happen.
Updated
Back at the Covid inquiry, Neil Ferguson was asked if any of his scientist colleagues thought in January or February 2020 that a Wuhan-style lockdown was worth considering for the UK. Ferguson said a “minority” of them thought that at that point.
In the Commons MPs are debating a Lords amendment to the levelling up and regeneration bill. Opening for the government, Rachel Maclean, a housing minister, said the government would not accept an amendment made by peers aimed at placing extra duties on planners to tackle climate change. She said:
The government agrees that the planning system must support our efforts in meeting our legal net zero commitments by 2050 and to tackle the risk of climate change. We have committed to updating the national planning policy framework (NPPF) to make sure it contributes to climate change mitigation and adaptation as fully as possible.
What is crucial, however, is that we address climate change in a way which is effective without being unnecessarily disruptive or giving rise to excess litigation for those seeking to apply the policies once they are made. That is why we can’t support amendment 45.
Asked when the government would update the NPPF, Maclean said the government would bring forward an update when the bill became law.
Updated
Hugo Keith presents Neil Ferguson with another of his emails, and suggests it shows he was engaging in the policy debate.
Ferguson says he was pointing out that the effectiveness of measures depended on other factors.
Q: Was there a general acceptance at the start of February that stopping the virus would be impossible?
Ferguson says he and colleagues thought stopping the virus getting into the UK would be extremely difficult.
Updated
At the hearing, Hugo Keith KC is now presenting Prof Neil Ferguson with an email he wrote on 29 January 2020 which discusses various interventions. He asks why more stringent measures were not considered.
Ferguson says he wrote about school closures because that was an intervention that had been used in the past.
Q: But where is the debate on whole-society measures?
Ferguson says he was addressing the questions he had been asked to consider.
Updated
Prof Neil Ferguson says the UK implemented very limited border controls. So it was only going to stop a small fraction of people entering the country, he says.
Q: When did you realise containment would not stop the virus entering the UK, or slow its spread?
Almost as soon as he heard what the measures were, Ferguson says.
He says the community spread of Covid probably started in late January 2020.
He says there was a point in February when it was reported that the UK had 20 cases of Covid, and they were all travellers. But at that point the only people being tested were travellers, he says.
Updated
Hugo Keith KC is questioning Neil Ferguson.
He asks if there had been modelling for the impact of “non-pharmaceutical measures” (lockdown-type measures, like working from home) during a pandemic before Covid struck.
Ferguson says there had been some modelling of the impact of these measures. But none of the modelling anticipated them being used for as long as they were.
Q: At the start of February 2020, were you and other experts sceptical about whether containment would work as a strategy?
Ferguson says containment did not work globally.
But he says he was more sceptical than others about whether containment would work in China. He changed his mind when he saw the data from what was happening on the ground, he says.
Updated
Prof Neil Ferguson, the Imperial College epidemiologist, is giving evidence to the Covid inquiry, which is currently investigating government decision-making at the start of the pandemic.
Ferguson was one of the most prominent of the many Sage (Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies) scientists who were frequently in the news during the pandemic, and he was one of the most influential. He was in charge of a paper produced in March 2020, which is credited with persuading Boris Johnson to order the lockdown.
There is a live feed on the inquiry’s website.
Ferguson was due to start at 2pm, but the morning session wrapped up earlier, and he started taking questions before lunch.
Updated
Equality and Human Rights Commission urges government to keep its promise to ban conversion practices
The Equality and Human Rights Commission has written to the government asking it to honour its promise to legislate to ban conversion practices.
Theresa May first promised a ban when she was PM five years ago, and the Conservative party promised one again in its 2019 manifesto. Earlier this year, Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, said draft legislation would be ready before the end of this parliamentary session
But it has been reported that ministers have now decided not to go ahead with a ban, and to publish guidance instead.
Today the EHRC has published a letter from its chair, Lady Falkner, to Kemi Badenoch, the minister for women and equalities, in which she says:
The commission’s position remains that legislation to ban harmful conversion practices is needed, and that thorough and detailed scrutiny remains imperative to ensure that any ban is fully effective in protecting people with the protected characteristics of sexual orientation and gender reassignment from harm while avoiding any unintended consequences. As such I hope to see this legislation in the forthcoming king’s speech.
Updated
No 10 says 'right group' of people to attend PM's AI safety summit, as it dodges questions about Olaf Scholz staying away
At the No 10 lobby briefing the PM’s spokesperson would not confirm or deny a report saying Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, is likely to refuse an invitation to attend the global summit on artificial intelligence safety that Rishi Sunak is hosting in the UK in November.
Asked about the report, the spokesperson said:
We are confident that the summit will bring together the right group of individuals to discuss this important issue. But I’m not going to get into speculation, it will be for other countries to set out their attendance.
At cabinet this morning ministers received an update on the summit, including a briefing from Ian Hogarth, the chair of the government’s frontier AI taskforce, who is overseeing it.
In its cabinet readout, No 10 said:
The prime minister made clear that it is only by managing the risks around AI that we can reap its benefits as a powerful tool for good, improving lives, boosting productivity, delivering better public services and growing our economy. This requires international cooperation, which the UK is uniquely placed to lead as the third most advanced country on AI behind only the US and China, and because we are the leading investor in AI safety.
Updated
No 10 says UK urging Israel to restore water supplies to Gaza
Rishi Sunak told cabinet this morning that Britons are likely to be among those being held hostage by Hamas.
In the Commons yesterday he said that at least six Britons were dead and that a further 10 were missing, some of whom were also thought to be dead.
This morning he told cabinet that some Britons are likely to have been abducted. In its readout of cabinet, No 10 said:
[The PM] underscored the abhorrence of Hamas’s deliberate targeting of civilians and said the UK would continue to stand with Israel and respect their right to self-defence. He said that the UK will play its part to help alleviate the unfolding humanitarian crisis, recognising that Hamas is actively seeking to endanger Palestinian civilians. The prime minister also added that Hamas were responsible for the murder and suspected abduction of British nationals.
At the No 10 lobby briefing, the PM’s spokesperson would not give any further details about how many Britons might be being held hostage. But he said it would be wrong to assume the 10 missing Britons Sunak referred to in the Commons yesterday were all being held hostage.
The spokesperson also said the UK government was urging Israel to allow water into Gaza – while refusing to say whether it thought cutting off the water supply was against international law.
The spokesperson said:
We continue to urge Israel as a democracy we work closely with to act within international law in their actions, I think they are taking steps to do that.
We are in discussions and are keen to see water restored to the area.
We want to do everything possible to relieve the unfolding humanitarian issues in Gaza. Water is an important part of that.
The spokesperson said he understood that the water supply had been partly restored in the Khan Yunis area in southern Gaza yesterday, but that this was only “a small portion” of what was needed. He added
We do believe it is vital that water supplies are restored, including local capacity, and we’ll continue to have discussions on that front.
Updated
The Labour MP Chris Bryant, a former chair of the Commons standards committee, has described this parliament as the worst in history for misconduct by MPs. That is based on the fact that since 2019 24 MPs have either been suspended for at least a day for breaking Commons rules, or resigned before suspension could take effect.
But there is some modest good news today in the annual report from the independent complaints and grievance scheme (ICGS), the body set up by parliament to investigate complaints of bullying, harassment and sexual misconduct, and to provide advice to people working in parliament on these issues.
The ICGS says there were 31 disclosures (complaints leading to at least a preliminary investigation) in 2022-23, down from 49 the previous year. Of those 31 disclosures, 23 related to bullying and harassment, and eight related to sexual misconduct.
The report also says that calls and emails to the helpline have been going down.
Updated
There will be an urgent question in the Commons at 12.30pm on the Department for Education’s £370m school funding error, the parliamentary authorities have announced. Bridget Phillipson, the shadow education secretary, has tabled the question, and an education minister will respond.
Labour promises to end badger cull in England
Labour has vowed to end the badger cull in England if elected, Helena Horton reports.
Neil Gray, the wellbeing economy secretary in the Scottish government, told BBC Radio Scotland this morning that the extra £300m to cut NHS waiting lists being announced by the first minister today (see 9.43am) would come from existing budgets. But he could not say from where. He explained:
Obviously, we have to find it within a fixed budget.
And there will be discussions across government as to where that comes from.
We don’t have the same luxury of an ordinary government to be able to borrow to invest in public services to the detriment of another budget.
During his interview round this morning Andrew Mitchell, the development minister, welcomed the news that the US president, Joe Biden, is to fly to Israel after apparently getting the Israeli government to agree to corridors for humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, and to the designation of safe areas where civilians will not be bombed.
Speaking to Times Radio, Mitchell said this development was encouraging. And he said he hoped this would lead to the Rafah crossing, between Gaza and Egypt, being opened.
Mitchell said Israel had “both a moral and a practical responsibility” to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.
And he stressed the difference between Israel and Hamas. “Israel uses its army to defend its citizens. Hamas uses its citizens to defend Hamas,” he said.
Updated
UK doing all it can to secure release of hostages held by Hamas, says minister
As Harriet Sherwood and Ben Quinn report, two British teenage sisters are thought to be being held captive by Hamas after last weekend’s attack on communities in southern Israel. The girls were named as Noiya, 16, and Yahel, 13, by a spokesperson for British families whose relatives are suspected hostages.
Yesterday Rishi Sunak told MPs that six Britons are known to have died in the Hamas attack, and that another 10 were missing.
Andrew Mitchell, the development minister, told BBC Breakfast this morning that the government did not know where the teenage sisters were, but that it was doing all it could to get them back. He said:
We don’t know where they are and we are thinking of them all the time. And of course we are strongly supporting the attempt by Israel to find them and release them.
The British government will do everything we possibly can to get them back, as soon as we possibly can.
We mourn the six British hostages we know who have died and we are extremely concerned about the fate and the state of the other 10.
Updated
Humza Yousaf to announce £300m more for NHS in Scotland - while telling SNP to focus on 'why' independence, not 'how'
Humza Yousaf is to pledge an extra £300m for the NHS in Scotland over the next three years, saying the cash could reduce waiting lists by 100,000 by 2026, PA Media reports. PA says:
The Scottish first minister and SNP leader will announce additional funding as he makes his keynote speech to his party’s annual conference this afternoon.
It is his first conference since taking over from Nicola Sturgeon as party leader and first minister in March this year – but it comes at a time when his party is seeing support slip in the polls, while a police investigation into internal SNP finances is still ongoing.
Yousaf will use his speech to the gathering in Aberdeen to insist that support for independence can be increased to a “sustained majority”.
After a debate about the party’s strategy for independence earlier in the conference, Yousaf will stress the SNP must now “concentrate not on the how – but on the why” of independence.
As part of that he will seek to put the issue of the economy at the heart of the campaign, claiming independence would help with “raising living standards” and building a “stronger economy”.
With the most recent figures showing there were 820,352 Scots on an NHS waiting list at the end of June, Yousaf – who was health secretary before becoming first minister – will use his speech to announce new cash to try to reduce the number who are waiting.
He will insist that post-Covid ministers are “working hard to reduce NHS waiting times” with a “significant reduction in the longest waits” having been seen since targets for this were announced last July.
But he will add: “I am announcing today that in each of the next three years we will invest an extra £100m to cut waiting lists. This additional funding will enable us to maximise capacity, build greater resilience in the system and deliver year-on-year reductions in the number of patients who have waited too long for treatment. That will reduce waiting lists by an estimated 100,000 patients by 2026.”
IFS report highlighting £52bn stealth tax rise shows Tories have ‘crashed our economy’, says Labour
Good morning. With Israel poised to invade Gaza, after Hamas committed the biggest slaughter of Jewish people in a single day since the Holocaust, and 2 million people in Gaza facing a humanitarian catastrophe, the news is rightly focused on the Middle East, and other political stories getting much less attention than they otherwise would. From the point of view of No 10, that is probably a blessing. The announcement yesterday about short jail sentences mostly being abandoned, and some prisoners being let out early, hardly got a mention on the news bulletins this morning, which for Downing Street must be a positive result. As the Daily Mail’s splash shows, the Ministry of Justice’s attempt to spin this as hardline “Texas” justice has, understandably, failed
Tuesday's DAILY MAIL: Violent prisoners to be let out early #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/jv595MMKYT
— Jack Surfleet (@jacksurfleet) October 16, 2023
There is another good example this morning. A report from the Institute for Fiscal Studies on the state of the public finances, ahead of the autumn statement, is getting some coverage, but not as much as it would if there wasn’t a war on. The Treasury will be pleased, because its findings are unremittingly grim. Here is the full report, and here is Richard Partington’s write-up.
The Conservatives have fought every election at least since the 1980s as the party of low taxation. But, as the IFS report suggests, that is no longer plausible. It says that Rishi Sunak’s decision to freeze the income tax personal allowance at its 2021-22 level for four years in his March 2021 budget, and Jeremy Hunt’s decision last year to make that a six-year freeze, not a four-year freeze, is now set to raise £52bn by 2027-28 – the same as a 6p rise in basic rate and higher rate income tax. The IFS says:
If we instead calculate revenue based on the latest inflation forecasts from the Bank of England (August 2023) and assuming that beyond 2026Q3 inflation remains at 2%, it looks like the freeze to both income tax and NICs thresholds is now on course to raise £52bn in 2027–28 (or £43bn if subtracting the cost of the increase in the point at which employees and the self-employed pay NICs)
This is a huge tax rise. To give a comparison, the biggest single tax-raising measure in recent history was the June 2010 budget decision to increase the main rate of VAT from 17½% to 20%, which is estimated to raise £21bn in 2027–28. Or, to put it another way, other ways to raise roughly £52 bn of revenue include increasing both the basic and higher rate of income tax by 6p, or increasing the main rate of VAT from 20% to 26%.
Despite this colossal rise in the tax take (a consequence of what is known as “fiscal drag”), the IFS also says the government cannot afford to cut taxes in the autumn statement.
Labour says this shows the Tories have crashed the economy. Darren Jones, the shadow chief secretary to the Treasury, said:
After 13 years of chaos and instability, the Conservatives have crashed our economy and left working people worse off.
Successive failures by Conservatives ministers have left us with low growth, high tax and national debt at the highest level in generations. Britain cannot afford another five more years of the Conservatives.
And Sarah Olney, the Lib Dem Treasury spokesperson, said:
This research lays bare the sheer scale of economic vandalism by the Conservative party.
Ministers have condemned the UK to sluggish growth, high inflation and soaring interest rates. It is hard-working families who are left to pick up the pieces, shouldering a huge burden of unfair tax rises and seeing our public services on their knees.
Here is the agenda for the day.
Morning: Rishi Sunak chairs cabinet.
11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.
11.30am: Steve Barclay, the health secretary, takes questions in the Commons.
2pm: Prof Neil Ferguson, the epidemiologist whose modelling is credited with having had a decisive impact on Boris Johnson’s decision to order a lockdown in March 2020, gives evidence to the Covid inquiry.
3.15pm: Humza Yousaf, Scotland’s first minister, gives his keynote speech to the SNP conference in Aberdeen.
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