Dennis Allen was a trendy pick to be the first head coach fired this year, until a 2-0 start put that notion on ice. But if his seat wasn’t hot before, it had better be after the New Orleans Saints fell to 2-2 on Sunday. Allen hasn’t done anything to win that much goodwill from Mickey Loomis, Gayle Benson, and other decision-makers on Airline Drive.
Of the ten head coaches hired in 2022, five have won fewer games than Allen has with the Saints, and three of them have already been fired. Of those remaining Allen is tied with embattled Jacksonville Jaguars coach Doug Pederson at 18-20, trailing behind Todd Bowles (20-18 with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers), Mike McDaniel (21-16 with the Miami Dolphins, pending their Monday night matchup with the Tennessee Titans), and Kevin O’Connell (24-14 with the Minnesota Vikings).
Loomis has stubbornly argued that Allen’s run with the Raiders a decade ago shouldn’t matter much in evaluating his performance today. And there’s some merit to that — the NFL is known for its “What have you done for me lately?” mindset. But you can’t ignore Allen’s career record. He’s coached 74 games and only won 27 of them.
Of the 177 head coaches who have worked at least 60 games in the NFL, Allen ranks 167th in career win percentage (.351). If you only want to look at those coaches with 70-plus games to evaluate, Allen ranks 150th out of 158.
And if, like Loomis, you’re an apologist who only wants Allen’s 38-game tenure with the Saints to be considered? Of the 250 coaches with at least 38 games to their name, his win percentage (.474) ranks 133rd. Is that really worth waiting on to see if he can turn the corner?
Allen’s defense is supposed to be his bread and butter. But they’ve given up seven yards per carry in back-to-back weeks while failing to pressure an immobile quarterback in Kirk Cousins or guard a late lead against the Falcons. And these have been problems for three years now, if not longer. Allen can coach a secondary but he can’t build a strong defensive line, and his team works with such a thin margin for error that every pass interference penalty, muffed punt, and ball batted up at the line of scrimmage matters.
So what’s to be done? Allen’s contract is up after the 2025 season. The Saints were hesitant to fire him after his 7-10 start because of the guarantees left on it (even though they pay exponentially more than that in dead money for players not on their roster every year), and he did make some incremental progress to finish 9-8 last season. But we’re in Year 3. Allen is struggling to stay over .500 and win as many games as he loses. He’s had every excuse made for him and the Saints have worked hard to get him his quarterback, his offensive coordinator, his position coaches and training staff, and he still can’t produce results. They’re in third place in the NFC South, the worst division in pro football, yet again.
There’s no reason Year 4 should be promised to him, but don’t be shocked if Allen finishes the season and is tasked with coaching for his job next season. Loomis is normally too aggressive for his own good. In this case, he might be too stubborn to admit he got this hire wrong and draw out the inevitable. If we’re wrong, and Allen does right the ship and figure out how to close tight games? Then we’ll praise him for it. But he hasn’t earned that confidence yet, and time to do so is rapidly running out.
