TAMPA, Fla. — Tropical Storm Ian intensified overnight into a hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center, and forecasters expect the storm will be a major hurricane by the end of the day.
The hurricane center on Monday morning also placed Tampa Bay under a hurricane watch and a storm surge watch. Tampa Bay remained firmly in the storm’s forecast cone, though forecasters said there was still a great deal of uncertainty about Ian’s path.
As of 2 p.m. Eastern time Monday, Hurricane Ian was 120 miles west southwest of Grand Cayman and about 195 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian was moving northwest at about 13 mph and had sustained winds near 85 mph with higher gusts, the 2 p.m. update from the hurricane center said.
Hurricane Ian will move over the warm waters of the Caribbean Monday and will face very little wind shear, leading the storm to rapidly intensify, the hurricane center said. Forecasters expect Ian will be a major hurricane when it passes near or over western Cuba on Monday night.
Ian likely won’t spend much time over Cuba and forecasters expect the storm to strengthen over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.
Forecasters said Ian is expected to reach its peak intensity in about 36 hours while over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. After, wind shear will stop the storm from strengthening further and Ian will begin to weaken, the 11 a.m. update said. However, the storm is still expected to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay area, on Wednesday and Thursday.
The hurricane center is concerned Ian will slow while near the west coast of Florida, bringing longer bouts of rain, wind and storm surges.
“It should again be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame, and users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges,” the hurricane center said in a 5 a.m. update.
The hurricane watch and storm surge watch stretched from Englewood to the Anclote River, which includes all of the Tampa Bay area. The hurricane center said west central Florida could have significant flooding.
A hurricane watch is issued when conditions are possible within 48 hours, and a warning is when conditions are expected within 36 hours.
According to the 11 a.m. update, much of Florida’s west coast — from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region — are at risk of a “life-threatening storm surge.”
Hurricane-force winds are also possible in the hurricane-watch areas of west-central Florida starting Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions possible as early as late Tuesday.
Heavy rain from Ian will ramp up across the Florida Keys and South Florida on Tuesday, moving up to central and Northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding, the hurricane center said.
Tampa Bay could be hit with a storm surge between 5 and 10 feet, said Jamie Rhome, the acting National Hurricane Center director, in a video posted late Monday morning.
The large range of predicted surge is because forecasters are still uncertain where Ian’s center will be when the storm passes by Tampa Bay. If Ian’s center stays more offshore, then Tampa Bay could see a storm surge around 5 feet, but if Ian moves closer to shore we could see an astounding 10-foot storm surge, according to Rhome.
“I want to end on this, unless you’re behind me in this building, you’re not a hurricane expert. If emergency managers order you to leave, then you need to do so, without question and without delay,” Rhome said.
A hurricane warning was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Havana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, Grand Cayman and for the lower Florida Keys — from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West — and the dry Tortugas.
The 11 a.m. update from the Hurricane Center added a tropical storm watch to the Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, Englewood southward to Flamingo in Florida, the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge and Lake Okeechobee.
The hurricane center said Ian could bring flash flooding and possible mudslides to areas of higher terrain, particularly over Jamaica and Cuba.
Spectrum Bay News 9 forecasters said Ian could slow down around the time it is parallel to the west coast of Florida. The unfavorable scenario would mean Tampa Bay would feel hurricane conditions for a longer period of time, according to Josh Linker, a Spectrum Bay News 9 meteorologist.
Tropical storm conditions could begin as early as Wednesday morning south of Tampa Bay and last through Thursday evening north of Tampa Bay, Linker wrote in an update posted about 5:45 a.m.
Another problem, Linker said, is that if Ian slows, some areas could see more than 10 inches of rain.
“With an already saturated ground and rivers near flood stage from summer rainy season, fresh water flooding may be a problem,” Linker said.
Tampa Bay began its storm preparations this past weekend amid warnings from officials, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, President Joe Biden and local leaders.
DeSantis declared a state of emergency for all of Florida’s 67 counties on Saturday. Biden also declared an emergency for the state, authorizing the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate disaster relief efforts.
Pinellas officials urged Pinellas County residents who live in mobile homes or low-lying areas, or who intend to leave the area before Hurricane Ian, to evacuate Monday.
Hillsborough County is ordering a mandatory evacuation zone for residents in Zone A and is recommending a voluntary evacuation for Zone B. Hillsborough residents can find their evacuation zones here.
Tampa Bay area governments opened sandbag locations over the weekend.
Local colleges and schools began announcing closures Sunday. Pinellas, Pasco and Hillsborough school district officials said Sunday they would close schools this week in anticipation of Hurricane Ian. The Bay Pines VA Healthcare system also announced several closures, from Port Charlotte to Pinellas County.
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