TAMPA, Fla. — Tropical Storm Ian intensified overnight into a hurricane and has continued to get stronger throughout the day, according to the National Hurricane Center, and forecasters expect the storm will be a major hurricane by the end of the day or early Tuesday.
In the 5 p.m. Eastern time update, the hurricane center also upgraded the hurricane watch and storm surge watch issued for Tampa Bay to a hurricane warning and a storm surge warning. Tampa Bay remained firmly in the storm’s forecast cone, though forecasters said there was still a great deal of uncertainty about Ian’s path.
Hurricane Ian was about 155 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba, according to the 5 p.m. update. The storm was moving north-northwest at about 13 mph and had sustained winds near 100 mph, with higher gusts.
Hurricane hunters report that Ian’s inner core seems to be better organized and its eyewall structure has improved as it moves over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Monday. The system will face very little wind shear, leading the storm to rapidly intensify over the next day or so, the hurricane center said in its 5 p.m. update. Forecasters expect Ian will be a major hurricane before it arrives in western Cuba early Tuesday.
Ian likely won’t spend much time over Cuba and forecasters expect the storm to strengthen over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico sometime Tuesday.
Forecasters said Ian is expected to reach its peak intensity in about 36 hours while over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear is expected to significantly increase on Wednesday and Thursday, and that is expected to stop the storm from strengthening further. However, the storm is still expected to remain at or near major hurricane strength as it passes near the west-central coast of Florida, including the Tampa Bay area, on Wednesday and Thursday.
The hurricane center is concerned Ian will slow while near the west coast of Florida, bringing longer bouts of rain, wind and storm surges.
“It should again be stressed that there is still significant uncertainty in the track of Ian, especially in the 3-5 day time frame, and users should not focus on the details of the track forecast at longer time ranges,” the hurricane center said in a 5 a.m. update.
The hurricane and storm surge warnings stretched from Englewood to the Anclote River, which includes all of the Tampa Bay area. The hurricane center said west central Florida could have significant flooding.
A hurricane warning is issued when conditions are expected within the given area within 24 to 36 hours. Forecasters urged residents to quickly complete preparations to protect their lives and their property.
According to the 5 p.m. update, much of Florida’s west coast — from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region — is at risk of a “life-threatening storm surge.”
Hurricane-force winds are also possible in the hurricane-watch areas of west-central Florida starting Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by late Tuesday.
Heavy rain from Ian will ramp up across the Florida Keys and South Florida Tuesday, moving up to central and Northern Florida Wednesday and Thursday, potentially causing flash, urban and small stream flooding, the hurricane center said.
Tampa Bay could be hit with a storm surge between 5 to 10 feet, said Jamie Rhome, the acting National Hurricane Center director, in a video posted late Monday morning.
The large range of predicted surge is because forecasters are still uncertain where Ian’s center will be when the storm passes by Tampa Bay. If Ian’s center stays more offshore, then Tampa Bay could see a storm surge around 5 feet, but if Ian moves closer to shore we could see an astounding 10-foot storm surge, according to Rhome.
“I want to end on this, unless you’re behind me in this building, you’re not a hurricane expert. If emergency managers order you to leave, then you need to do so, without question and without delay,” Rhome said.
In addition to the Tampa Bay area, a hurricane warning also was in effect for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, as well as the Dry Tortugas.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Cuban provinces of La Havana, Mayabeque and Matanzas, as well as for the lower Florida Keys — from the Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West — and from Flamingo to Englewood.
The 5 p.m. update from the hurricane center added a tropical storm watch for the area north of the Anclote River to the Suwannee River, and for Bonita Beach to Englewood.
The hurricane center said Ian could bring hurricane-force winds, big storm surges, flash flooding and possible mudslides to parts of western Cuba starting Monday night.
Spectrum Bay News 9 forecasters said Ian could slow down around the time it is parallel to the west coast of Florida. The unfavorable scenario would mean Tampa Bay would feel hurricane conditions for a longer period of time, according to Josh Linker, a Spectrum Bay News 9 meteorologist.
Tropical storm conditions could begin as early as Wednesday morning south of Tampa Bay and last through Thursday evening north of Tampa Bay, Linker wrote in an update posted about 5:45 a.m.
Another problem, Linker said, is that if Ian slows, some areas could see more than 10 inches of rain.
“With an already saturated ground and rivers near flood stage from summer rainy season, fresh water flooding may be a problem,” Linker said.
Tampa Bay began its storm preparations this past weekend amid warnings from officials, including Gov. Ron DeSantis, President Joe Biden and local leaders.
DeSantis declared a state of emergency for all of Florida’s 67 counties on Saturday. Biden also declared an emergency for the state, authorizing the Department of Homeland Security and the Federal Emergency Management Agency to coordinate disaster relief efforts.
Pinellas officials issued a mandatory evacuation order for some residents starting at 6 p.m. Monday. Other residents will be under a mandatory evacuation order starting at 7 a.m. Tuesday.
Hillsborough County is ordering a mandatory evacuation zone for some of its residents and is recommending a voluntary evacuation for others.
Tampa Bay area governments opened sandbag locations over the weekend.
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