Who are the people who will still vote Tory? True, there are not many left, but a solid core of 20% of the population will opt for more of the same, the lowest percentage in polling history, says Prof John Curtice. That many still seem willing to re-elect those who did such national damage is, to put it politely, perplexing.
Do they really back the exceptionally mean-spirited and squalid bribery of their party’s prospectus? Well, the great majority have better things to do than read manifestos. But go out and talk to ordinary Tory voters and you find their state of mind out of tune with their party’s hierarchy. That’s why most traditional Tories have fled, ignored by the manifesto writers who press on with deeper cuts to collapsing public services, adding to the 4.3 million children going hungry.
Sunak’s enormous £17.2bn tax giveaway has lit no spark, perhaps because the richest fifth of households would be £1,300 better off on average, while the poorest fifth would gain just £150. Shocked at the state of the NHS, present Tories and those who have fled would also be horrified by the secretive £20bn spending cuts their chancellor is lobbing into next year, if they knew about them.
I went looking for old-fashioned Tories in East Grinstead and Uckfield, a deep-blue constituency in Sussex where the Tories are predicted to win by a margin of 5.7 percentage points.
I am in an unposh corner of town, with shabby maisonettes, some rented, some owned, mainly peopled by those on lowish incomes, who have voted Tory all their lives against their own interests, a perennial mystery to Labour. This area is Tory by identity, so I expected strong commitment here, but in those doorstep encounters few fitted their party’s policy template, nor chimed with that selfish and manipulative tax-cut manifesto.
“Always was Conservative,” said a middle-aged man with a barking dog. “But everything’s falling apart, isn’t it?” He waited eight hours in A&E with his mum with a broken wrist. Almost everyone had an unforgiving NHS story, indignant at its failures. I was out with the diligent local Liberal Democrat candidate, Benedict Dempsey. The man at the door had some interest. “I might vote for you,” he said, “as I don’t like Sunak. Ah, I did like Boris!” and he smiled broadly at the memory of him. Tory still? Probably, but no longer reliably rock-solid.
Dempsey knows he hasn’t much chance this time round, but he thinks next time the seat could fall, like nextdoor Lewes, where his party is predicted to sweep away the Conservative Maria Caulfield.
“Undecided”, though usually Tory, a woman a few doors down complained bitterly that the GP service was “rubbish”. Her mother with dementia and Parkinson’s struggles to get care: so might she vote for the Lib Dems, who promise free personal care for older and disabled people? She’s cagey: “I always vote.” Visceral Tory instincts will probably prevail but yes, she hesitates for the first time over the state of public services.
A Gatwick baggage handler, always Tory, spoke of immigration mainly, fearing his daughters would be raped by foreigners. He sounded like a slider to Farage: “He’s a proper geezer.” But then came a surprise: “I might vote you lot, as you’re legalising cannabis, aren’t you? That’d bring in billions in tax for the NHS.” He, too, has NHS complaints, but immigration comes top.
A vanishing breed, an older woman in the next street said: “My mother was in service with the gentry, so we all vote Tory.” But she, too, protested about a lack of GPs and NHS waits. “But we’re never Labour! Though I’ve never thought the Liberals not nice.” Even here a hesitation. She worries about disabled people so she’s not one to kick away their benefits, but she’ll likely stick with a lifetime’s habit, for now.
An adamant Tory, arms crossed, excoriated Labour. “I saw what the unions did, holding the country to ransom. Blair sold us out to Europe.” Is he pleased with Brexit? “Bloody disaster, because of how this government has done it. Farms, manufacturing suffering, foreigners taking jobs, no sovereignty.” Would he vote Reform? “A wasted vote.” But here again a surprise from this tough talker: “I would vote for Rory Stewart, though.” Really? He’s an ardent anti-Brexiter who quit his party. “He’s decent, unlike some.” So even he is a less anchored Tory, seeking something better.
Tory strategists now put their last efforts into tax-cut bribery and red scares about Labour tax hikes, but just as their policy blitz has bombed, tax cuts fail, too. In my conversations tax had only one mention, while failed public services featured on every doorstep. Just one woman talked tax. She said she wouldn’t vote Lib Dem because: “You’re going to tax people earning over £50,000, like my husband, while Tories will cut taxes. I’m done with hardship.”
But she’s not typical: Ipsos this month found 40% wanted higher public spending, even if they personally pay more tax, with only 27% against. Savanta finds people have already “priced in” Labour rises in corporation, inheritance and capital gains tax – and they approve. On one door a sign read: “We know who we’re voting for. We found Jesus. Please go away!”, so I did.
These conversations with Tory lifers suggest a very deep party collapse. Even they are no longer the devoted loyalists I have often canvassed over the years: none have a good word for their party. The failing NHS, the Johnson-Truss chaos and the No 10 parties have left them feeling it isn’t their party any more. Reform’s plan for tax breaks for private health users will repel these mainly older voters relying utterly on the NHS.
Tory high command and its manifesto have lost contact with this base, lost touch with how the country has changed. “No such thing as society”, “stand on your own two feet” Toryism was killed by the bankers’ crash, Covid and the cost of living crisis. A sea change has taken anti-welfare attitudes to an all-time low; just 19% think people get benefits they don’t deserve according to the British Social Attitudes survey, while Save the Children finds 71% wanting benefits preserved. That’s why Sunak’s tax bribery and tax scares cut no mustard.
Come Torypocalypse, Farage and Tory remnants will fight to control these few remaining voters. But if they think there’s a solid blue backbone up for acquisition, they may find those voters, too, will flee extremists. Those repelled by this era’s Torydom would surely shun Farage’s foghorn. Few Tories who fled to the Lib Dems or Labour, or are staying home waiting for the return of a moderate right, will be dazzled by even more monster bribes and cuts from Farage.
His “contract” may tickle the Braverman right, but neither the general public nor ordinary ex-Tories will believe his unthinkable £70bn tax cut, freeze on immigration or climate denial. Tory wars will be fantasies on a distant planet once the country elects a serious government for growing and greening, not cutting and dwindling.
Polly Toynbee is a Guardian columnist
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