As we gear up for what is sure to be a scintillating week at the PGA Championship, golf fans around the world are eagerly going through their process in an attempt to predict the winner.
While some like to 'go with their gut', and others like to throw darts at longshots, I tend to bury myself in data to see what I can unearth. This is a procedure I have stuck with for the second Major of the season, at Valhalla Golf Club, and in filtering through the scorecards of the 10 most recent winners of the event, I believe I have found a few things players must do if they want to win the PGA Championship...
1. Make No More Than One Double Bogey (Or Worse)
Avoiding double bogeys might sound like an obvious plan when trying to win a Major Championship, but those who wish to lift the Wanamaker Trophy will need to be near perfect in this pursuit.
Of the last ten winners of the PGA Championship, dating back to Rory McIlroy's famous win at Valhalla Golf Club in 2014, no winner has made more than one double bogey or worse.
So, if the player you have backed to win in the betting makes a couple of big scores early, it might be worth resigning yourself to the fact it probably won't be your week!
2. Make At Least 18 Birdies
Making birdies at Major Championship venues is never easy, especially when you consider the sort of scores that have won this event in recent years. Five of the last seven champions have lofted the trophy thanks to a single-figure winning score, but that doesn't mean you can afford to scrimp on the birdies.
In each of the last ten years, the PGA Champion has made at least 18 birdies on their way to victory, with Jason Day recording the most in 2015 with 25 across four rounds.
With that logic, to win this prestigious event, contenders will need to make an average of 4.5 birdies per day to keep up with the trend.
3. Make 11 Bogeys Or Less
Clearly, making lots of birdies isn't enough in itself to win you the title, as strong attacking play needs to be balanced with a consistent bogey avoidance strategy. On a course that is going to play long, with gnarly rough in places, avoiding bogeys will be a challenge – but being frugal in this area is the key to success.
In the last ten PGA Championships, eight of the winners have made 11 or less bogeys over the course of four rounds. That's less than three bogeys per day on average, which could rule out a few out early.
4. Shoot At Least Three Rounds In The 60s
It's rare to find a winner in the past six years that has managed to shoot four consecutive rounds in the 60s, with just one champion managing this feat (Collin Morikawa, 2020).
This did happen in three consecutive years from 2014 to 2017, however, with Jimmy Walker, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy all scoring well en route to the Wanamaker Trophy.
Since the move to May, it appears to have become more difficult to consistently shoot a sub-70 round, but eight of the last ten champions have managed to post at least three rounds in the 60s.
The lowest rounds in the last ten years, an impressive pair of 63s, both belong to Brooks Koepka who secured them during the opening round in 2018 and the second round in 2019.
The average score per round for the last ten PGA Champions is 67.725, meaning a four-under-par score at this challenging par-71 is the benchmark for those with aspirations of winning on Sunday.
