A retired senior detective has backed the police theory that Nicola Bulley could have fallen into the river before she vanished. The search for the 45-year-old mum has entered a 16th day after she disappeared while walking her dog in St Michael’s on Wyre, Lancashire.
Officers are keeping an 'open mind' but one hypothesis is that the mortgage adviser, from Inskip, Fylde, could have fallen in. Her heartbroken partner Paul Ansell has said his 'gut instinct' is that Nicola, who he described as an 'exceptional mum' who 'absolutely adores our girls', is that she is not in the river.
A huge search has been launched by police working with specialist divers from HM Coastguard, mountain rescue, Lancashire Fire and Rescue Service, as well as sniffer dogs, drones, and police helicopters. Forensic expert Peter Faulding has also formed part of the search operation.
Now, Julie Mackay, a retired Detective Superintendent who previously solved a 32-year-old murder, has told our sister paper The Mirror that she backs the police's working hypothesis. She said three factors influenced her conclusion, namely that no new information has given them a reason to think otherwise, that it is unlikely to be criminal based on the time she disappeared, and that winter conditions would make it harder to find her.
Ms Mackay said: "I still believe she's gone in that river - today when you look at the last two weeks and review it, nothing has changed." The former Det Supt said that even though Nicola hasn't been found near the potential entry point near the bench, it doesn't mean she's not there.
Extensive searches by police and underwater forensic expert Mr Faulding have not found Nicola. When asked about why she thinks this is, she said: "I think it is good to always have other specialists to try and find new leads or try and support the work that has been done.
"They too are 100 per cent that she is not in that area in the river if she has gone in by the bend. The other bit of speculation is how hard it is to travel over that Wyre.
"It's not as unusual as you think. If she's then sadly gone over that Wyre it becomes tidal and then the possibility that she's gone out to sea is still quite possible.
"On the face of it, I still agree with the police." She also said she still didn't believe it was a criminal act even though there are potential CCTV blind spots where Nicola could have left the area.
She said: "I don't think it criminal there would have been a clue along the way. If you were looking at a criminal act it is usually from an opportunist.
"Where women are attacked by a stranger and sexually assaulted and or sadly murdered it's spontaneous. It's rare they would camp out the area, check the route, the CCTV and do it at all around 9am.
"This is when you are weighing up the pros and cons of third-party involvement. However, it's good that it is highlighted and that police continue to explore every opportunity."
Ms Mackay had previously said that based on her experience from working along the Somerset coast people aren't always immediately found if it involves water. Another reason why the former Det Supt backs the theory that Nicola went into the river but hasn't been found is how her clothes would have weighed her down.
Nicola was last seen wearing a long black gilet jacket with a hood, black jeans and olive-green ankle wellies. Ms Mackay said: "Generally wearing winter clothes makes it more difficult to get out it will weigh you down.
"The cold water shock alone will knock you sideways even for an experienced swimmer. That cold water shock very quickly disorientates you and with winter clothes it's heavy and panic will set in.
"And once you start losing control it can be quite difficult to regain it." When asked why no one had seen her in the river, she added: "I don't think it is unusual no one saw her in the river because there is a lot of debris, logs and rubbish.
"People don't expect to see something they can't identify. It's also how the body operates in the water, it sinks until decomposition sets in and because it's so cold it may be a bit longer."
Speaking to Dan Walker on Channel 5, last night, Mr Ansell said he is 'convinced' his partner is not in the river. He said: "Extensive searching, as you’re probably aware, has gone on in that river.
"The fact that the divers and underwater rescue team and all that were in that river on the day, and thankfully found absolutely nothing, in the part where you would have to presume is her last known location. Personally, I am 100 per cent convinced it’s not the river, that’s my opinion."
He also said: "People don't just vanish into thin air. It's absolutely impossible. So something has happened." He added: "You see the same faces every single day, and on the very odd occasion when you see somebody that you know, you don't know. They stand out like a sore thumb."
Anyone with information which could assist the police investigation is asked to call Lancashire Police on 101 quoting log 0565 of January 30th. For immediate sightings please call 999.
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