Working for a Conservative MP, I hear a lot of talk about the party’s internal business. Sometimes it’s what people say directly to me, but more often than not they just have the conversations around me.
One question is, understandably, coming up a lot: will Boris Johnson be ousted, and if not, why not? The answer depends on who you’re talking about.
A very common view among more senior MPs and Tory staffers is that the recent intake of Conservative backbenchers, often those from the “red wall” seats, are often of low ability, even not hugely clever. Both 2017 and 2019 elections were sudden, and there just wasn’t enough time to vet candidates.
A lot of them don’t have especially good non-political careers to fall back on, so being an MP is all they have. These MPs are not especially good at holding the prime minister to account. In part, they sometimes just don’t understand very well how politics and parliament work. But also, all they want is to stay in parliament, and so are less willing to stand up to the government. For now, many see their only viable chance of re-election being with Johnson as the leader. Not least because the question asked by most Tory MPs is, who next? They don’t especially care if the party wins a majority at the next election, not least because there doesn’t seem to be any plan for government.
As long as there is no credible alternative, and they believe they can hold on to their seat with him at the helm, they will not push for him to go. The one thing that could persuade some to change their minds is if the Conservatives lose both byelections next month. But even winning one of the byelections could be enough to save Johnson. These new MPs have no other desire but to be re-elected so they can continue their fantasy of being important and influential. They have no qualms about supporting a man they know is not fit for office, and who is now even getting booed by a crowd of royalists.
While ministers – particularly Nadine Dorries – will generally say absolutely anything to defend the prime minister, more widely in the party, I’ve seen different MPs adopt varying strategies. Some are just keeping their heads low, trying as much as possible to avoid campaigning and the media. Others are more proactive, and still campaign locally, but make sure to never mention Johnson or the government.
The approach they adopt depends in part on where their constituency is located, and how long they have held the seat. Well-established MPs in traditionally Tory constituencies can afford to sit it out and rely on loyalists. But if you’re in a more marginal or red wall seat it needs more effort, highlighting efforts in parliament, and funding secured for the area. Only an election will tell if either tactic will work, but one thing is clear: for now, they are all trying to distance themselves from Johnson and his cabinet.
And what about us staffers? While our counterparts in Labour and the Liberal Democrats plan for ideas they think will move the country forward, Conservative aides spend their day defending the latest nonsensical political message CCHQ has decided on to make people think Brexit works, such as imperial measures and crowns on pint glasses, something rushed through to appeal to the core vote and distract from the latest troubles.
There is no such thing as Johnsonism, just a pact made by those MPs who used him to get elected, and they will do what they can to keep him in office. Time will tell if there are enough of these to keep the prime minister in a job.
