The 2023 Philadelphia Eagles were the 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers in disguise.
The 2020 Steelers started out 11-0 as whispers of fraudulence followed them to the top of the NFL standings. They finished that season on a 1-5 streak capped by an ignominious loss to Baker Mayfield as a home favorite in the Wild Card round.
The 2023 Eagles started out 10-1 as whispers of fraudulence followed them to the top of the NFL standings. They finished that season on a 1-6 streak capped by an ignominious loss to Baker Mayfield as a home favorite in the Wild Card round.
That loss to the Browns effectively shut the door on Ben Roethlisberger’s era as a playoff-caliber quarterback. Pittsburgh has recorded three winning seasons in the three years since and been back to the playoffs twice, but hasn’t been remotely threatening in that stretch. This would all bode poorly for the Eagles, except, well, they’re not relying on a noodle-armed veteran to lead them back from the brink with a depleted lineup of playmakers.
Instead, they’ve got Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, Saquon Barkley and one of the league’s best offensive lines.
Yes, we should all be at least a little scared of the Eagles in 2024
In simple terms, the Eagles have too much talent for last year’s spiral to cascade across an offseason. Hurts still has Brown, Smith and Dallas Goedert as his top targets. D’Andre Swift has been replaced as the team’s lead back by Barkley. Jason Kelce’s retirement surely stings, but general manager Howie Roseman addressed that in 2022 when he drafted Cam Jurgens in the second round to be the next man up screaming “[expletive] my life” on fourth-and-short Brotherly Shoves.
Let’s start with that line. Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson make up one of the league’s best tackle combinations. Landon Dickerson is a top 10 guard who signed an $84 million extension this offseason. Jurgens and Tyler Steen will be pushed into larger roles than they’ve ever seen in their NFL careers, but each was a Day 2 draft pick for a franchise that’s done exceptional work developing offensive linemen.
Needless to say, expectations are high for that group despite turnover.
Quick thread on offensive line starters leading up to draft as I wait for code to run What if we tried to guess offensive line strength given the 5 starters listed on Ourlads and their past performance in pass protection (as measured by grade)? This is what it might look like pic.twitter.com/drVEjPMK7r
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) April 8, 2024
This is all vital for a Hurts comeback. The fourth-year quarterback wasn’t bad in 2023; in fact he was exactly league average. His 89.1 passer rating was a drop of more than 10 points from 2022’s Super Bowl campaign but still landed right in the midpoint for NFL quarterbacks, producing a 100 rating+ (think ERA+, but for QBs).
He can afford to be average with an offense built for destruction. Last year’s Eagles ranked in the top 10 in both points scored and yards gained. THey ranked seventh in expected points added (EPA) per play and ninth in EPA per dropback despite a quarterback who, statistically, should have left them in the middle of the pack.
Of course, the offense isn’t the concern here. Philly had two significant issues to address this offseason. The Eagles’ secondary, led by veterans nearing or on the wrong side of 30 (James Bradberry, Darius Slay, Kevin Byard) fell off in a big way. This was exacerbated by frustrating play from off-ball linebackers in the middle of the field that topped out at below average when it came to both coverage and run-stopping.
And then, reinforcements. New arrivals Devin White and Oren Burks were each exposed in coverage last postseason — White by not playing enough for a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that sat him, Burks by playing too much after Dre Greenlaw tore his Achilles in the Super Bowl — but they add veteran depth to a position that badly needs it. Jeremiah Trotter Jr.’s lack of elite athleticism dropped him to the fifth round of this year’s draft, but he’s a high-upside addition who’ll be immediately welcomed by fans who watched his dad spend nearly a decade with the franchise.
That left holes in the secondary that needed to be filled and a 2024 NFL Draft board that shook out perfectly in Philly’s favor. No defensive back was selected before the Eagles’ 22nd overall pick, giving Roseman the opportunity to make Toledo stud Quinyon Mitchell the first corner drafted. When Iowa safety/cornerback Cooper DeJean slid from his expected landing spot in the first round, Roseman struck a deal to trade up and snag him with the 40th pick.
If he’s not able to punch up the safety position or at slot corner? Welp, CJ Gardner-Johnson, vital to the team’s 2022 Super Bowl run behind six interceptions and infinite confidence, is back on the roster after an injury-marred season with the Detroit Lions.
None of these players are sure things, but Roseman took a team pressed against the salary cap strain of big contracts and landed low cost contributors who can fix the team’s fatal flaws. Of course, that doesn’t mean we can pencil Philadelphia in for a division title yet.
The concerns? Jalen Hurts’ backslide and a patched-up defense
Let’s start with the more compelling of the two. Hurts, as previously mentioned, was an average quarterback in 2023. This would have been fine if not for the vacated potential his breakthrough 2022 created.
Hurts’ average target distance rose (8.1 yards downfield to 8.7) but his yards per attempt dropped (8.0 to 7.2) as he regressed following a season in which he ranked second in MVP voting to Patrick Mahomes. Much of this came down to indecision in the pocket. His time to throw rose from 2.46 seconds in 2022 — one of the 15 lowest numbers for starting quarterbacks — to 2.91 in 2023, second highest only behind Justin Fields.
Hurts also moved away from what helped him break through as a young quarterback. The intermediate and deep routes over the middle that broke up defenses and created space declined. Throws over the middle made up 38 percent of his passes that traveled at least 10 yards downfield (53 of 136) in 2022. In 2023, they counted for only 31 percent of his attempts (49 of 157, per SIS).
He was also less effective as a runner. Buying extra time in the pocket left room to stand back and find more deep routes, but also limited his running lanes. His rushing yards dropped from 50 to 35 per game and his yards per scramble dropped from 7.8 to 6.8, which was a career low.
Is this something that can be fixed with minor tweaks and a default mode of “whatever, A.J. Brown’s over the middle down there somewhere?” Since Hurts’ bad throw rate remained mostly the same and his on-target rate climbed to a career best 78.9 percent, I’m inclined to think yes. But “above average” and “MVP candidate” are two different worlds. Hurts may struggle to cross that boundary in 2024.
Additionally, while Roseman’s offseason makes a ton of sense on paper it could still fail to pan out. Philly put in work to overhaul a defense in need of run-stopping reinforcements in the middle of the field and pass deterrents in the secondary. Mitchell and DeJean are rookies. Gardner-Johnson played only three games last season and hasn’t played more than 12 in any year since 2020.
White was a liability for a Tampa team that didn’t see a role for him in its biggest games of the year. Burks is a useful depth option unable to thrive in a bigger role. Trotter and Nakobe Dean are two players who were once considered first round picks whose stock fell leading up to the draft. Dean has yet to prove he belongs in a starting lineup and Trotter could face similar struggles.
The guy who had more than a quarter of the team’s sacks last fall, Haason Reddick, has been replaced by Bryce Huff. Huff shined in a 10-sack 2023, but had only 7.5 career sacks in three seasons before that. Fletcher Cox won’t be part of the lineup for the first time since 2011.
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Of course, turnover is normal when it comes to running a franchise. Roseman has the Eagles set up to overcome it better than most. Philadelphia is walking a tightrope between blockbuster contracts and bargains, veteran starters and rising stars.
Everything the Eagles did this season was in service of patching the holes that sunk their 2023. Each move made sense. The 2024 roster will throw a combination of young prospects and veteran names at the weak points that led to Philly’s Steelers-ing. On paper, it should work like a charm.
But on paper, a 10-1 team shouldn’t disintegrate in the playoffs against Baker Mayfield. We’ll see how it turns out.
