It’s 6.30pm in Quito, and Anamary Mazorra Vázquez’s flat has fallen into darkness after weeks of government-mandated power cuts to manage Ecuador’s electricity crisis. She puts clothes away by the light of her phone while her husband, Roberto Vaca, seated on the bed by the window, uses the streetlights to help feed their two-year-old son, who has special needs.
With a newborn and two toddlers to care for, Vázquez’s life has been turned upside down by the blackouts, she says. These past weeks have been particularly challenging, with power cuts from 4am to 11am, then again from 3pm to 10pm, leaving her with only four hours of electricity during the day.
She and her husband have resorted to doing laundry late at night, switching to manual breast pumps, and relying less on refrigerated or frozen foods. They get by in the evenings with a rechargeable light in the kitchen, which lasts long enough for them to cook and eat dinner, while their four-year-old daughter plays in the dark living room.
“This week, the schedule was so harsh,” says Mazorra Vázquez in her kitchen. “I’m not just exhausted, but switched off.”
This sense of fatigue and frustration is widespread across Ecuador as the country – which gets about three-quarters of its electricity from hydropower – goes through one of its worst droughts in decades, and people struggle to adjust to the relentless blackouts.
However, experts argue that drought is not the only cause of Ecuador’s energy crisis. It reflects deeper structural problems within the power sector, with insufficient investment, misguided policy decisions, slow reactions to repeated warnings and a lack of strategies to adapt to extreme weather events.
Since 23 September, Ecuador has been hit by rolling blackouts, which peaked at the beginning of November, with power cuts lasting up to 14 hours a day, mainly during daylight and evening hours, when demand is highest.
As a result, the country’s economy has been severely affected, with small and medium-sized businesses the worst hit. According to the labour ministry, more than 3,500 jobs have been lost due to the blackouts. Industry bodies estimate the power cuts have cost Ecuador’s economy at least $2bn (£1.5bn), with that figure rising daily.
This setback is another challenge for the South American country, which has experienced a sharp decline in economic growth this year while confronting a worsening security crisis. In response, President Daniel Noboa has adopted a hard-line policy against organised crime, drawing inspiration from El Salvador’s anti-crime efforts.
Businesses have been trying to adapt and work by candlelight or the light of phones while halting certain services during blackout hours. Many others have turned to diesel generators to keep operating.
Researchers from the Universidad de Las Américas found that using generators comes at the expense of health and the environment, as diesel emits high levels of toxins, such as sulphur dioxide and a mixture of harmful particulates.
Protesters in Quito took to the streets recently, calling for an end to the power cuts and Noboa’s resignation, saying his administration has not been transparent about how the crisis is being managed.
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Ecuador has generated more than 70% of its electricity through hydropower since 2017, after the inauguration of several large-scale hydro projects, such as the Coca Codo Sinclair plant. The dam has been controversial, as it cost billions of dollars and was delivered with numerous structural problems. It has also been suggested that the dam has contributed to the erosion of the Coca River, causing oil spills and the collapse of the country’s biggest waterfall.
Nevertheless, Coca Codo Sinclair alone provides nearly 30% of Ecuador’s energy.
Fernando Salinas, electrical engineer and president of the Ecuador energy forum , says that since Coca Codo Sinclair went into operation in 2016, no new energy sources have been created, despite a consistent rise in demand. Since 2017, energy demand has risen 24%, roughly a 400MW increase annually, but the current system has been unable to keep up – even less so with the drought.
The lack of expansion was not due to a lack of planning. In 2016, the government of Rafael Correa created the electricity master plan, a strategic framework to guide the development of the sector.
It included more hydroelectric projects in different regions to reduce vulnerability to droughts and fluctuating rainfall, diversifying its energy sector to include more solar and wind sources, and maintaining thermal plants to increase backup capacity in case of droughts.
But successive governments have failed to implement any of these, says Salinas. “The politicians were resting on their laurels, thinking Ecuador’s power capacity was enough to meet the energy needs,” he says. “There was planning, but it was not put into action.”
Ecuador’s thermoelectric plants, essential during droughts, have suffered from neglect, with only 879MW out of a 2,020MW capacity operational by October due to chronic underinvestment. The country’s electricity is among the cheapest in the region – priced at about $0.10 (7p) a kWh, compared with $0.20 in Colombia and $0.18 in Peru – with further subsidies for large industries, a policy that has contributed to the lack of investment.
“We give away energy,” says Jorge Luis Hidalgo, an energy consultant and general manager of Greenpower International. “That is why we haven’t had the state funds to finance energy projects for eight or nine years.”
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Homero Paltán, climate risk and water specialist at the San Francisco University of Quito, says it is difficult to predict droughts. Still, in this case, Noboa and his government received several warning signs.
Experts last year cautioned that an incoming El Niño would probably lead to reduced rainfall across the Amazon rainforest – where most of Ecuador’s hydroelectric dams are located – especially during the dry season from August to November.
In January, the national energy operator also submitted a report to the energy ministry, warning of imminent drought in the region.
Studies also showed that the climate crisis would intensify these impacts, as seen in the drought in 2023, which also led to power cuts. “Yes, it is an extraordinary drought in the Amazon basin, but it was also anticipated,” Paltán says, adding that officials ignored the need for an energy contingency plan.
Darío Dávalos, a political and energy analyst, says the time wasted was critical to organising alternatives and preventing the blackouts. “Between January and April, they lost about four months,” he says.
The Noboa administration did not take action until April when water levels were already critically low. The president then declared a state of emergency for the electricity sector and implemented his first nationwide power cuts for up to eight hours a day, followed by another state of emergency in August. By then, the cuts had become more sustained.
During the crisis, Noboa fired three energy ministers, accusing one, Andrea Arrobo, of sabotage. The energy ministry did not respond to requests for comment.
Part of the government’s temporary solution has been to bring in floating thermoelectric power plants, such as a barge from the Turkish company Karpowership, which has been operating since September. The floating power station brings some relief but only meets about 10% of Ecuador’s energy deficit. A second barge is scheduled to arrive by April 2025.
Recent light rains, particularly around the Coca River and the Coca Codo Sinclair dam, have slightly eased Ecuador’s energy shortfall, reducing the power cuts to six hours a day. However, it’s clear that immediate and far-reaching measures are essential to adapt to and mitigate larger crises.
In the short term, says Salinas, the priority should be restoring and updating the thermoelectric fleets. He adds that Ecuador should also consider investing in backup energy that is cleaner and cheaper than diesel, such as fossil gas, and a mix of renewables such as wind and solar, to lessen reliance on hydropower.
Hidalgo adds that the country needs to re-evaluate electricity prices, particularly for industry, to ensure sustainable funding for energy infrastructure and encourage greater energy efficiency, thus reducing demand. “It’s not only about increasing supply,” he says.
Paltán says it “was not a bad idea” for Ecuador to invest in hydroelectric plants. “The bad idea,” he says, “has been to generate such a high dependence without backup strategies.”
