Justin Thomas kicked off his Open Championship in style on Thursday, with a three-under-par 68 to lead the morning wave. The two-time Major winner dazzled in tough conditions at Royal Troon, and firmly cemented his claim for a first Claret Jug.
Despite a run of very mixed form entering the week, Thomas appeared to be firing on all cylinders, and I believe he is the danger man in the field as he searches for a first win since the 2022 PGA Championship.
A solid opening round in Scotland last week suggested he could be back to his best, but despite faltering over the final three rounds, I am ready to believe he may be about to do something spectacular.
After diving deep into his first round performance data, I have found three reasons why he could be our next Champion Golfer of The Year...
1. Putting
The putter has been his achilles heel over the past 12 months, entering the week ranked 89th in the field for Strokes Gained (SG): Putting. Thomas has failed to gain more than one stroke putting since the American Express in late January, and has lost strokes to the field with the flat stick in eight of 14 appearances since that event.
Flashes of optimism have emerged recently in this area, but nobody could have expected the demonstration of putting prowess that Justin Thomas displayed at Royal Troon in the first round of the Open Championship.
By the time he entered the clubhouse, he ranked 2nd for total distance of putts made (103ft), ranked 3rd for SG: Putting and accumulated an impressive seven birdies. That's a stark contrast to what we've seen of late, and if he can keep that going he will have plugged a very big hole in his game.
2. Driving Accuracy
Justin Thomas has always been a great ball striker, and he is no slouch off the tee. Something often has to give in that department, however, and for Thomas he can be slightly wayward with his accuracy.
Coming into the week at Royal Troon, Thomas ranked 123rd in the field for driving accuracy, and when you consider the danger that lurks in the form of treacherous rough and perilous bunkers, that doesn't make for an appealing combination.
Since the start of 2024, Thomas has only bettered the field average for driving accuracy in two events, which is perhaps one of the main reasons he has struggled to reach the heights we expect from a player of his calibre.
It appears that something has changed this week, as his first round performance was completely different to that drab picture. After the early morning wave, Justin Thomas ranked in the top-30 for driving accuracy, and he didn't necessarily sacrifice his length to achieve that, ranking 22nd for driving distance.
3. Piecing It All Together
Even throughout his run of indifferent form that led to the final Major of the season, Justin Thomas has always had a strong approach and wedge game. Prior to Open week, Thomas ranked 3rd for SG: Around The Green and 28th for SG: Approach, and he continued to demonstrate his strength in these areas on day one at Royal Troon.
After his first round, Thomas ranked 9th for SG: Approach and 13th for SG: Around The Green, and he managed to successfully hit 61 percent of greens-in-regulation.
Piecing it all together has been a problem for Justin Thomas over the past couple of years, and while it's still early in the tournament, this might be one of the most complete performances we have seen from him in a long while.
He entered the week at around 80/1 in the betting, and not particularly popular with punters, but his odds have already plummeted to become one of the market favourites. When he gets hot he can be very dangerous, and I am convinced Thomas has what it takes to win the Claret Jug this weekend.
