As the chair of Mission Zero, the independent review of net zero for the government, I have met countless champions of innovation, and witnessed ingenuity and unwavering ambition to drive forward net zero in the UK.
The imperative to reduce carbon across the economy has never been stronger. It is therefore concerning that, at a time when the UK should be embracing a renewable future, an application has been submitted by the Norwegian state-owned oil company Equinor to open the UK’s largest undeveloped oilfield – Rosebank, in the North Sea.
The evidence is clear that developing new oil and gas fields is incompatible with limiting warming to 1.5C. When the UK government held the presidency of Cop26, we commissioned the International Energy Agency (IEA) to develop a roadmap to net zero by 2050. In this groundbreaking report, the IEA concluded that no further oil and gas projects would be approved, a conclusion echoed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
The UK climate change committee has also suggested that an end to exploration of oil and gas would strengthen the country’s diplomatic role, and send a clear signal to investors and consumers that it is committed to reaching its international climate targets.
This month, Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, called out companies and governments planning to build new, large-scale fossil-fuel projects, suggesting that by doing so they were betting on the failure of the world reaching its climate goals.
Rosebank alone has the potential to produce 500m barrels of oil – that’s enough to produce the equivalent emissions of running 56 coal-fired power plants for a year. Analysis shows that just this single new oilfield would be enough to exceed the UK’s carbon budgets for the oil and gas industry, even if the sector’s emissions abatement aspirations are met. It would also seriously undermine the terms of the government’s North Sea transition deal, intended to support the movement of the oil and gas sector into more sustainable areas such as offshore wind.
That would mean other sectors of the economy, which are already playing their part to reach net zero, would have to cut their emissions further and faster to enable the UK to stay within its carbon budgets. Furthermore, fields such as Rosebank may inhibit the UK’s transition away from fossil fuels due to competition for critical and limited supply chains that both industries share, including ports, vessels and skilled workforces.
Net zero brings with it huge opportunities for the UK economy, and has the ability to support levelling up regions across the country, creating a joint sense of purpose and pride of place. Yet, rather than boosting the economy, the Treasury will effectively support the development of Rosebank to the tune of £3.75bn. Overall, the public purse could lose more than it gains, potentially making a loss of more than £100m if the oilfield goes ahead. If approved, it will make the UK poorer but the Norwegian state richer. Norway already has a sovereign wealth fund worth trillions built from its heavily taxed oil and gas assets.
There is no doubt that the oil and gas industry has transformed Britain. But, while the North Sea’s reserves have historically formed a key component of the UK’s energy security strategy, we now finds ourselves in the unenviable position of being over-reliant on fossil fuels. As a result, we have been left vulnerable to gas prices set on the international market, and household energy bills over the last year have been the highest in western Europe, leaving 7m households in fuel poverty despite billions of pounds spent on an energy price cap.
Parliament’s environmental audit committee, of which I am a member, and my independent review of net zero both found that energy security and achieving net zero increasingly go hand in hand. Accelerating our transition away from fossil fuels by rapidly boosting our supply of renewable energy and reducing demand through energy efficiency is not only supported by the UK public, but also has the capability of creating jobs in clean energy industries that could exceed the number of oil and gas jobs lost by more than threefold.
The UK is already reaping the rewards of being the first major economy to write net zero by 2050 into law. In this global race, net zero businesses are already contributing £70bn to the UK economy, presenting a real opportunity for resilience and growth.
We must not let the industries of the past dictate our future. By saying no to Rosebank, we will be giving a clear signal that the UK and our North Sea is open as a centre of climate excellence and a hub for new technologies and skills, and ensure we are at the front of the pack on driving ambition globally.
Chris Skidmore is Conservative MP for Kingswood, the former energy minister who signed net zero into law, and chair of the independent review of net zero
Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.
